MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - E-mini S&P Tests Key 50-Day EMA

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Tests The 50-Day EMA

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis started the week by trading below the 50-day EMA. Levels below the 50-day EMA have resulted in a quick reversal of the prior corrections and a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 4126.75, the week's low and represents a potential risk parameter for bulls. Key trend resistance and the bull trigger is at 4258.25, Jun 15 high.
• In FX, EURUSD remains weak following last week's sharp sell-off and gains are considered corrective. Scope is seen for weakness towards 1.1837 next, 76.4% of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally. GBPUSD remains vulnerable following last week's bearish pressure. The pair has probed 1.3800 and this signals scope for 1.3717 next, Apr 16 low. USDJPY traded higher last week and breached 110.33, Jun 4 high. This reinforces a bullish theme with the focus on 110.97, the year high on Mar 31. Support to watch is at 109.72, Monday's intraday low.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded sharply lower last week and remains vulnerable. The focus is on $1756.2, low Apr 29. Upticks are considered corrective. Oil remains below recent highs and a corrective cycle is in play. Support in Brent (Q1) is seen at $71.56, the 20 day EMA. WTI (N1) support to watch lies at $69.26, the 20-day EMA.
• Within FI, Bund futures key directional triggers have been defined at; 171.80, Jun 17 low and 173.16, the Jun 11 high. The pullback in Gilt futures key support lies at 126.70, Jun 3 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 1.2218 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 1.2147 High Jun 15
• RES 2: 1.2077 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1925/2006 High Jun 18 / High Jun 17
• PRICE: 1.1905 @ 06:06 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 1.1848 Low Jun 18 and 21
• SUP 2: 1.1837 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally
• SUP 3: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
• SUP 4: 1.1738 Low Apr 5

The EURUSD outlook remains bearish following last week's move lower. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA and 1.2104, Jun 4 low highlights a bearish theme and has also confirmed a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.1837, a Fibonacci retracement where a break would open 1.1704, the Mar 31 low and a key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.2006, the Jun 17 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: 1.4203/48 High Jun 3 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 2: 1.4022 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3944 High Jun 18
• PRICE: 1.3906 @ 06:11 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 1.3787 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3669 Low Apr 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

Despite yesterday's gains, GBPUSD remains vulnerable following sharp losses last week and the break of short-term support - price has cleared the 50-day EMA and 1.4006, May 13 low. Cable has also traded through the 100-DMA, reinforcing current bearish conditions. Scope is seen for an extension lower towards 1.3717, Apr 14 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.4022, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 3: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 1: 0.8629 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 0.8558 @ 06:15 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 0.8542 Low Jun 17
• SUP 2: 0.8531 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8420 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP outlook remains bearish. The cross last week traded through 0.8561, May 12 low. This signals the end of the recent consolidation and strengthens a bearish case. The focus is on a weakness and attention is on 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally. A break of this level would expose key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.8629, Jun 15 high where a break would ease the bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 111.71 High Mar 24 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 2: 111.07 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 110.46 @ 06:23 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 109.72 Low June 21
• SUP 2: 109.24/19 50-day EMA / Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger

USDJPY traded higher last week but found resistance at 110.82, Jun 17 high and remains below this hurdle. The recent break of 110.33, Jun 4 high is a bullish development and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend since Apr 23. Attention is on key resistance at 110.97, the year high print on Mar 31 and 111.07, 1.0% 10-dma envelope. A break of the former would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Initial key support is at 109.72, Jun 21 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 133.76/134.13 High Jun 10 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 132.88 High Jun 17
• RES 2: 132.04 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.56 Intraday high
• PRICE: 131.43 @ 06:40 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 130.04 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 129.59 Low Apr 23
• SUP 3: 128.83 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: Low Mar 24 and key support

Despite yesterday's gains, EURJPY remains vulnerable. This follows a sharp move lower last week that highlights scope for a deeper pullback. The cross has cleared the 50-day EMA and importantly also breached the bull channel support, drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. This highlights a reversal in sentiment and note, price has probed the 100-dma. Attention is on 130.00 and 129.59, Apr 23 low. Initial firm resistance is at 132.04, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 0.7776 High Jun 11
• RES 3: 0.7703 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 1: 0.7561 High Jun 18
• PRICE: 0.7516 @ 06:46 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 0.7476 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 0.7462 Low Dec 21, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.7372 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Mar 9 - 18 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.7339 Low Nov 30, 2020

AUDUSD outlook remains bearish following recent weakness. The pair has traded below key support at 0.7532 Apr 1 low and price has also breached the 200-dma. The move lower confirms a resumption of the reversal that occurred Feb 25 and signals scope for a deeper pullback towards 0.7462, the Dec 21, 2020 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 0.7561, the Jun 18 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In Charge

• RES 4: 1.2737 High Mar 5
• RES 3: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2535 High Apr 22
• RES 1: 1.2501 61.8% retracement of the Apr 21 - Jun 1 sell-off
• PRICE: 1.2380 @ 06:52 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 1.2339 Low Jun 18
• SUP 2: 1.2251 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2206 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2057/2007 Low Jun 7 / Low May 18

USDCAD is trading closer to recent highs. The recent break of 1.2203, May 6 high confirmed a short-term reversal and the pair has also cleared the 50-day EMA, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The focus is on 1.2501, a Fibonacci retracement. A break would open 1.2653, high Apr 21 and an important resistance. Initial support is seen at 1.2339, Friday's low. Dips would be considered corrective.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Holding Above Support

• RES 4: 173.79 High Apr 8
• RES 3: 173.32 76.4% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 2: 173.16 High Jun 11
• RES 1: 173.03 High Jun 21
• PRICE: 172.09 @ 05:17 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 171.93 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 171.80/37 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: 170.99 Low Mar 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 170.56 Low May 24

Bund futures traded lower yesterday. The recent pullback is still considered corrective and while 171.80, Jun 17 low remains intact, scope is seen for a push higher. Note that the contract last week found support just below the 50-day EMA, reinforcing the importance of 171.80 as a short-term pivot level. A break lower would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, key resistance and bull trigger is at 173.16, Jun 11 high.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.663 1.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.510 1.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.250/390 High Jun 17 / High Jun 15
• PRICE: 133.960 @ 05:19 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 133.910 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 133.860 Low May 28 and 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 133.690 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 133.450 Low May 20 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures traded lower yesterday, extending the recent pullback. Although the pullback is considered corrective, a near-term bearish risk remains present. Price is below the 20-day EMA and note that key support lies at 133.860, May 28 and 31 low. A break would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 134.510, a Fibonacci projection and the Jun 11 high. Initial resistance is at 134.250.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Clears Support

• RES 4: 112.210 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 112.185 High Jun 15 and 16
• RES 2: 112.175 High Jun 17 and 18
• RES 1: 112.165 High Jun 21
• PRICE: 112.125 @ 05:33 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 112.120 Low May 17, Jun 21 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 112.110 Low Apr 20
• SUP 3: 112.086 138.2% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 4: 112.075 1.50% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally

Schatz futures traded lower yesterday and breached support at 112.135, May 27, 28 and 31 lows and key near-term support. The break lower reinforces a bearish theme highlighting the risk of a deeper sell-off. Price is currently also testing support 112.120, May 17 and Jun 21 low and today's intraday low so far. Note too that a key support lies at 112.110, Apr 20 low where a break would further reinforce a bearish theme. Initial resistance is at 112.165.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 128.92 1.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 3: 128.50 1.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 128.39 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 128.08High Jun 21
• PRICE: 127.62 @ Close Jun 21
• SUP 1: 126.91 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 126.70 Low Jun 3 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 126.12 Low May 19

On Jun 9 Gilt futures cleared 127.74/85, Apr 20 and May 7, 26 highs respectively and a key resistance zone. The move through 127.74 confirmed a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and this positive price condition remains intact. Last week's pullback is considered corrective and price has remained above key S/T trend support at 126.70, Jun 3 low. A climb would open 128.39. A break of 126.70 would instead be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Correction Still In Play

• RES 4: 153.82 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 153.40 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 152.66 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 151.68/47 High Jun 17 / High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 150.73 @ Close Jun 21
• SUP 1: 150.42 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 150.11 Low Low Jun 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 149.53 Low May 28
• SUP 4: 148.80 Low May 25

BTP futures remain in their current bullish cycle following the strong reversal from the 147.00 low on Mar 19. With bulls in control, the recent pullback is considered corrective and is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Key near-term support lies at 150.11, Jun 8 low. The bull trigger has been defined at 152.47, Jun 14 high where a break would open 152.66, a Fibonacci projection and the Feb high of 153.82 (cont) further out.

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Monitoring The Bearish Engulfing Candle

• RES 4: 4265.00 High Jan 15, 2008
• RES 3: 4200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• RES 1: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 4112.50 @ 05:57 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 4015.00 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 3992.60 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3999.00 Channel base from the Feb 26 low (cont)
• SUP 4: 3871.00 Low May 13

EUROSTOXX 50 futures found support yesterday at the 4015.00 session low. Attention is on Friday's sell-off that in patterns terms is a bearish engulfing candle. This signals a potential top. Trend conditions are overbought and a corrective pullback would allow this set-up to unwind. A resumption of weakness would expose the 50-day EMA at 3992.60. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 4153.00, Jun 17 high. A break resumes the uptrend.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Directional Triggers Defined

• RES 4: 4300.00 Round Number Resistance
• RES 3: 4264.41 1.618 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 4258.25 High Jun 16
• RES 1: 4241.50 High Jun 18
• PRICE: 4220.75 @ 06:59 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 4126.75 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 3967.00 High Mar 18

The recent pullback in S&P E-minis suggests the contract has entered a corrective cycle. However, price tested the 50-day EMA yesterday at 4145.50 and the average has provided support. Yesterday's rally is also potentially an important bull signal and in pattern terms is a bullish engulfing. This recent price activity has highlighted resistance at 4258.25, Jun 15 high and 4125.75, low Jun 21 as the key short-term directional triggers.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q1) Bull Trend Resumes

• RES 4: $76.97 1.23 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $75.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $75.60 - High Apr 25, 2019 (cont)
• RES 1: $75.23 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $74.98 @ 06:57 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: $72.01/71.88 - Low Jun 17 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $69.90 - High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 3: $67.75 - Low May 25
• SUP 4: $64.50 - Low May 21 and key support

Brent crude futures have negated recent bearish concerns and extended the bounce from $72.01, Jun 17 low. The recovery has resulted in a fresh trend high with price trading above last week's $74.96 high on Jun 16. The move confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A break below $72.01 is needed to signal a top.

WTI TECHS: (N1) Bullish Price Sequence Intact

• RES 4: $75.07 - 3.618 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 3: $74.47 - 3.50 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 2: $74.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $73.96 - High Jun 21
• PRICE: $73.56 @ 06:40 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: $69.77 - Low Jun 17
• SUP 2: $67.02 - High May 18
• SUP 3: $66.23 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $65.25 - Low May 26

WTI crude rallied yesterday and has resumed its uptrend, clearing former resistance at $72.99, Jun 16 high. The break higher maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and signals scope for further upside with attention on the $74.00 handle and $74.47, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support has been defined at $69.77, Jun 17 low. A break of this level is required to signal a top.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $1903.8/16.6 - High Jun 8 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
• RES 2: $1844.8 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $1825.4 - High Jun 17
• PRICE: $1783.9 07:20 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: $1761.1 - Low Jun 18
• SUP 2: $1756.2 - Low Apr 29
• SUP 3: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the MAr 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 4: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13

Gold remains vulnerable. The yellow metal traded sharply lower last week confirming a bearish cycle. The break lower resulted in a clear breach of the 50-day EMA and the subsequent follow through signals scope for a deeper pullback. Attention is on $1756.2, Apr 29 low and $1733.5, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at $1825.4, Jun 17 high ahead of the 20-day EMA at $1844.8.

SILVER TECHS: Bears Still In Charge

• RES 4: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 3: $28.267 - High Jun 11
• RES 2: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $27.245 - High Jun 17
• PRICE: $25.912 @ 07:23 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: $25.554 - Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver remains weak following last week's sharp sell-off. The move lower resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. The EMA highlighted a strong area of support and levels below it also represent a zone where demand potentially exists, assuming broader sentiment remains bullish. Currently though, the break lower is bearish and attention is on $24.955 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at Thursday's high of $27.245.