MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Extends Outperformance in Festive Trading

Price Signal Summary – EUR Extends Outperformance in Festive Trading

• A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and yesterday’s fresh trend high reinforces current conditions. The move higher confirms once again a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 27. The contract has also recently cleared resistance at 4738.50, the Jul 27 high. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Recent gains confirmed, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and this has maintained the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• EURUSD maintains a positive tone and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Price has traded through key resistance at 1.1017, the Nov 29 high and a bull trigger. The break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.1065. The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Furthermore, key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.2733, the Nov 29 high, has recently been cleared. USDJPY is unchanged and remains below 144.96, the Dec 9 high. The recent recovery from 140.97, the Dec 14 low, appears to be a correction and trend conditions remain bearish. On Dec 14, the pair breached support at 141.71, the Dec 7 low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend.
• The Dec 13 reversal in Gold and the subsequent move higher points to the end of the Dec 4 - 13 corrective pullback and highlights a bullish theme. MA studies are in a bull-mode position too, reflecting an uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $2097.1. Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and recent gains still appear to be a correction. Resistance to watch is $75.87, the 50-day EMA. The average was pierced yesterday. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal.
• The uptrend in Bund futures remains intact and the contract traded higher last week, confirming a resumption of the trend and an extension of the recent break of resistance at 135.81, the Dec 7 high. The extension maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The current uptrend in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract gapped higher last Wednesday. Price is also firmer today, trading to a fresh trend high. This confirms once again, a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

EURUSD TECHS: Trades Through Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 2: 1.1065 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 1.1049 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.1044 @ 08:10 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: 1.0921/1.0840 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.0724 Low Dec 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0693 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 1.0665 61.8% retracement of the Oct 3 - Nov 29 rally

EURUSD maintains a positive tone and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Price has traded through key resistance at 1.1017, the Nov 29 high and a bull trigger. The break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.1065, the Aug 10 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support is seen at 1.09221, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2819 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 1.2800 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 1.2731 @ 05:55 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: 1.2636 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2500 Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.2449 Low Nov 22
• SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Furthermore, key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.2733, the Nov 29 high, has recently been cleared, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 1.2800 next, the Aug 22 high. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2636, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.8814 High May 4
• RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8716 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 - Dec 11 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8687 High Dec 26
• PRICE: 0.8673 @ 06:09 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: 0.8618 Low Dec 20
• SUP 2: 0.8571/8549 Low Dec 15 / 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8524 Low Sep 5
• SUP 4: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and a key support

EURGBP traded higher last week and the cross is holding on to its recent gains. Resistance at 0.8650, the 50-day EMA, has been cleared highlighting a stronger short-term reversal. This signals potential for a continuation of the bull cycle. Sights are on 0.8716 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, key support is unchanged at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low. Initial support is seen at 0.8618, the Dec 20 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 148.51 High Nov 30
• RES 3: 147.32 High Dec 7
• RES 2: 146.59 High Dec 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 144.96/145.26 High Dec 19 / 76.4% of the Dec 11 - 14 sell-off
• PRICE: 142.63 @ 06:18 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: 141.87 Low Dec 22
• SUP 2: 140.97/71 Low Dec 14 / 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run
• SUP 3: 140.23 2.00 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 139.11 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing

USDJPY is unchanged and remains below 144.96, the Dec 9 high. The recent recovery from 140.97, the Dec 14 low, appears to be a correction and trend conditions remain bearish. On Dec 14, the pair breached support at 141.71, the Dec 7 low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend that started on Nov 13. This opens 140.71, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 146.59, the Dec 11 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 161.78 High Dec 1
• RES 3: 159.93 High Dec 4
• RES 2: 158.67 High Dec 12
• RES 1: 158.62 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 157.57@ 06:50 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: 155.39/153.23 Low Dec 19 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 150.92 Low Jun 14

EURJPY traded sharply higher on Dec 19 breaching resistance at 157.68, the Dec 11 high. The next key hurdle to watch is 158.67, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would signal a short-term reversal. While 158.67 remains intact, recent gains appear to be a correction and trend signals remain bearish. A continuation lower and a break of 153.23, the Dec 7 low and bear trigger, would resume the downtrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 0.6961 1.236 proj of the Nov 10 - Dec 4 - Dec 7 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6847 High Jul 20
• PRICE: 0.6829 @ 07:56 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: 0.6726 Low Dec 21
• SUP 2: 0.6687/6526 20-day EMA / Low Dec 07 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.6494 Low Nov 20
• SUP 4: 0.6453 Low Nov 17

Bullish trend conditions in AUDUSD remain intact and a fresh trend high once again today, reinforces current conditions. The move higher marks an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 0.6691, the Dec 4 high and a bull trigger. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6900, the Jun 16 and a key resistance. On the downside, key short-term support is unchanged at 0.6526, the Dec 7 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6687, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 1.3538 High Dec 26
• RES 3: 1.3429 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3374 High Dec 20 / 21
• RES 1: 1.3295 High Dec 25
• PRICE: 1.3198 @ 08:08 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: 1.3185 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.3074 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull phase

The USDCAD trend outlook remains bearish and price has traded lower today. The pair has recently cleared a bear trigger at 1.3480, the Dec 4 low. Furthermore, all key short-term retracement points have been breached. These developments reinforce a bearish theme and maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3093, the Jul 14 low and a key support. Resistance to watch is 1.3429, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Bull Trend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 139.04 3.618 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 138.76 3.50 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 138.49 3.382 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 138.21 High Dec 21
• PRICE: 138.01 @ 05:21 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: 136.59 Low Dec 18
• SUP 2: 135.44 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 134.37 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 133.42 Low Dec 4

The uptrend in Bund futures remains intact and the contract traded higher last week, confirming a resumption of the trend and an extension of the recent break of resistance at 135.81, the Dec 7 high. The extension maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 138.49, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 134.37, the Dec 8 low. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24 (cont)
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 119.832 0.764 proj of the Nov 24 - Dec 7 - 8 price swing
• RES 1: 119.580 High Dec 22
• PRICE: 119.510 @ 05:30 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: 118.730 Low Dec 18
• SUP 2: 118.257 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 117.800 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.510 Low Dec 4

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the contract traded higher last week. The continued appreciation confirms, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 119.832, a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 117.800, the Dec 8 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Northbound

• RES 4: 106.774 1.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.698 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.621 1.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 1: 106.550 High Dec 22
• PRICE: 106.505 @ 05:32 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: 106.280/141 Low Dec 18 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 105.955 Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 4: 105.640 Low Nov 29

Trend conditions in Schatz futures remain bullish and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has cleared 106.495, the Dec 14 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 106.621, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 105.955, Dec 13 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Bullish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 104.23 2.382 proj of the Nov 30 - Dec 6 - Dec 11 price swing
• RES 3: 104.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 103.81 2.236 proj of the Nov 30 - Dec 6 - Dec 11 price swing
• RES 1: 103.52 Intraday high
• PRICE: 103.60 @ 08:05 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: 100.93 Low Dec 18
• SUP 2: 100.20 High Dec 13 and gap high
• SUP 3: 99.83 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 98.97 High Dec 6 and a recent breakout level

The current uptrend in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract gapped higher last Wednesday. Price is also firmer today, trading to a fresh trend high. This confirms once again, a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 104.00 next. Initial firm support lies at 100.20, the Dec 13 high. Short-term weakness would be considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Path Of Least Resistance Remains Up

• RES 4: 123.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 120.97 2.618 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• PRICE: 120.65 @ Close Dec 22
• SUP 1: 118.54/117.18 Low Dec 18 / High Dec 13 and gap high
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 114.13 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 112.70 Low Nov 24

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play and the contract traded higher last week. This reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has recently cleared resistance at 117.22, Dec 7 high and a bull trigger. The breach maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 120.97, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 115.70, the Dec 8 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4697.50 1.382 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 4634.00 High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4579.00 @ 05:58 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: 4530.00 Low Dec 20
• SUP 2: 4513.70 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4447.00 Low Dec 5
• SUP 4: 4370.00 Low Nov 28

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Recent gains confirmed, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and this has maintained the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a rising trend cycle. The focus is on 4636.70, a L/T Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch is 4513.70, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Fresh Trend High

• RES 4: 4915.11 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4900.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4854.75 1.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4834.50 High Dec 20
• PRICE: 4827.75 @ 06:31 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: 4743.25 Low Dec 20
• SUP 2: 4715.00 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4608.76 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4594.00 Low Nov 30

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and yesterday’s fresh trend high reinforces current conditions. The move higher confirms once again a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 27. The contract has also recently cleared resistance at 4738.50, the Jul 27 high, reinforcing current positive trend conditions. Sights are on 4854.75 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 4715.00, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $86.50 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $84.22 - High Nov 30 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $81.45 - High Dec 26
• PRICE: $80.95 @ 07:00 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: $76.00 - Low Dec 18
• SUP 2: $72.67/71.21 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.84 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

Brent futures traded higher Tuesday, starting the week on a bullish note. The latest recovery is considered corrective, however, price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach of the 50-day average, signals scope for a continuation higher. This would open $84.22, the Nov 30 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, a strong reversal lower would refocus attention on $72.67, the Dec 13 low.

WTI TECHS: (G4) Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $84.18 - High Oct 24
• RES 3: $82.64 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $79.67 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $75.87/76.18 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 26
• PRICE: $75.52 @ 07:15 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: $70.99 - Low Dec 18
• SUP 2: $67.98/07 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: $65.24 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.79 - 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 6 - Oct 20 price swing

Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and recent gains still appear to be a correction. Resistance to watch is $75.87, the 50-day EMA. The average was pierced yesterday. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. For bears, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The bear trigger lies at $67.98, the Dec 13 low. A break would resume the downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 2: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $2073.4 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• PRICE: $2065.6 @ 07:18 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: $2026.5 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

The Dec 13 reversal in Gold and the subsequent move higher points to the end of the Dec 4 - 13 corrective pullback and highlights a bullish theme. MA studies are in a bull-mode position too, reflecting an uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $2097.1, 76.4% of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg, ahead of key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.4. Initial firm support lies at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle Still In Play

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• PRICE: $24.109 @ 07:32 GMT Dec 27
• SUP 1: $22.510 - Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver rallied on Dec 13, highlighting a reversal and last week’s push higher reinforces a developing bullish theme. The Dec 13 price pattern appears to be a bullish engulfing candle. If correct, the pattern signals potential for a continuation of the upleg. Sights are on $24.994, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is at $25.761, the Dec 4 high. Key support lies at $22.510, the Dec 13 low.