MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/GBP Bear Threat Remains Present

Price Signal Summary – EUR/GBP Bear Threat Remains Present

• The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and this week’s move higher reinforces current conditions. Resistance at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high has been cleared, confirming an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered from last week’s low of 4402.00 (the Jan 17 low) and the contract is holding on to its most recent gains. 4402.00 represents a key short-term support. A break of it would resume recent bearish pressure and open 4370.00.
• GBPUSD is unchanged and continues to trade above 1.2597, Jan 17 low. The pair has recently pierced support at 1.2611, the Jan 2 low and traded below the 50-day EMA, at 1.2630. EURGBP traded lower Tuesday and has pierced support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low. A bear threat remains present. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a clear downtrend - for now. AUDUSD is unchanged and maintains a softer tone following recent bearish price action. The pair has breached a trendline drawn from the late October low. That break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction with sights on 0.6526.
• Gold is unchanged and trades above the Jan 17 low of $2001.9. Last week’s print below the 50-day EMA and the break of support at $2013.4, the Jan 11 low, has strengthened a bearish threat and a resumption of weakness would open a key level at $1973.2. Trend signals in WTI futures remain bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. The contract has pierced the 50-day EMA at $74.25. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and expose $76.31.
• A downtrend in Bund futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent move lower strengthens the current bear trend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The trend needle in Gilt futures continues to point south. The contract last week cleared support at 99.60, the Jan 5 low. This reinforced a bearish theme and confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Dec 27.

EURUSD TECHS: Fresh Short-Term Trend Low

• RES 4: 1.1139 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1077 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Jan 5 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 1.0921/98 20-day EMA / High Jan 5
• PRICE: 1.0863 @ 05:40 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 1.0822 Low Jan 23
• SUP 2: 1.0793 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0724 Low Dec 8
• SUP 4: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg

EURUSD traded to a fresh short-term trend low Tuesday. A bearish theme remains intact with price trading closer to its recent lows. The recent break of a trendline drawn from the Nov 1 low, signals scope for a continuation of the current bear cycle. A resumption of weakness would open 1.0793, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance is at 1.0998, Jan 5 high. A breach would signal a reversal.

GBPUSD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2747 High Jan 23
• PRICE: 1.2703 @ 05:56 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 1.2597 Low Jan 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.2525 38.2% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 4: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase

GBPUSD is unchanged and continues to trade above 1.2597, Jan 17 low. The pair has recently pierced support at 1.2611, the Jan 2 low and traded below the 50-day EMA, at 1.2630. The latest recovery is a bullish development, however, a clear breach of 1.2630/11 would highlight a S/T top and signal scope for a deeper retracement, opening 1.2500, Dec 13 low. Key resistance is 1.2827, Dec 28 high. A break resumes the uptrend.

EURGBP TECHS: Pierces Key Support

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20
• RES 3: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 0.8600/25 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 0.8553 @ 06:12 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 0.8547 Low Jan 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8524 Low Sep 5
• SUP 3: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 4: 0.8454 61.8% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase

EURGBP traded lower Tuesday and has pierced support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low. A bear threat remains present. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a clear downtrend - for now. A firm break of 0.8549 would strengthen the current condition and open 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low and a key support. The 50-day EMA, at 0.8625, is the initial firm resistance to watch. Clearance of the average would ease bearish pressure.

USDJPY TECHS: Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 150.78 High Nov 17
• RES 3: 149.75 High Nov 22
• RES 2: 149.16 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg
• RES 1: 148.80 High Jan 19
• PRICE: 147.92 @ 006:27 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 146.99 Low Jan 23
• SUP 2: 145.86 50- day EMA
• SUP 3: 144.36 Low Jan 12 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 143.42 Low Jan 9

USDJPY is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains and bulls remain in the driving seat for now. Last week’s move higher reinforces current conditions. Resistance at 146.41, the Jan 11 high, has been cleared and this confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. Sights are on 149.16 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at 144.36, the Jan 12 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal a top.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 164.30 High Nov 16 and key resistance
• RES 3: 163.72 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 162.25 High Nov 29
• RES 1: 161.86 High Jan 19
• PRICE: 160.67 @ 06:42 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 159.43 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 158.55 Low Jan 12 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 157.21 Low Jan 9
• SUP 4: 156.08 Low Jan 4

EURJPY trend conditions remain bullish. Last week’s rally strengthened the current condition and resulted in a breach of 160.18, the Jan 11 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and note that 161.69, 76.4% of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg, has been pierced. A clear break of this retracement would open 162.25, the Nov 29 high. Initial firm support lies at 158.55, the Jan 12 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Short-Term Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
• RES 1: 0.6633 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6577 @ 06:58 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 0.6526/25 Low Dec 7 and key support / Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: 0.6500 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

AUDUSD is unchanged and maintains a softer tone following recent bearish price action. The pair has breached a trendline drawn from the late October low. That break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction with sights on 0.6526, the Dec 7 low and the next key support. A clear break of this support would open 0.6500, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 0.6633, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Shallow Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 1.3542 High Jan 17
• PRICE: 1.3457 @ 07:56 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 1.3420/3343 20-day EMA / Low Jan 12
• SUP 2: 1.3288/3177 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 27
• SUP 3: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3158 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone and the latest shallow pullback appears to be a correction - for now. Last week’s gains resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA, at 1.3459, confirming an extension of the bull cycle that started Dec 27. This opens 1.3538, 50.0% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. The retracement has been pierced, a clear break would expose 1.3608, Dec 13 high. Initial support is 1.3420, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 139.39 3.764 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 137.96/138.84 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 136.16 High Jan 5 / 8
• RES 1: 135.13 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 134.00 @ 05:21 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 133.71 Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 133.42 Low Dec 4
• SUP 3: 132.89 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase
• SUP 4: 132.29 Low Nov 30

A downtrend in Bund futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent move lower strengthens the current bear trend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37, has been breached and this opens 133.42, the Dec 4 low. Initial resistance is at 135.26, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would ease bearish pressure.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 119.640 High Jan 4
• RES 3: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 118.590 High Jan 12 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 118.088 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.500 @ 05:44 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 117.310 Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 117.060 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.830 Low Nov 29

A bearish cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The recent breach of support at 117.800, the Dec 8 low, highlights potential continuation lower, exposing 117.060, the Dec 1 low, Note that the 50-day EMA has also been cleared, reinforcing a bearish theme. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 119.830, the Dec 27 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 118.590, the Jan 12 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Bearish Conditions Remain Intact

• RES 4: 106.640 High Dec 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 106.360 Low Jan 3
• RES 2: 106.270 High Jan 5
• RES 1: 106.070 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 105.870 @ 05:36 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 105.780 Low Dec 1 and Jan 19
• SUP 2: 105.730 Low Nov 30
• SUP 3: 105.660 High Nov 17
• SUP 4: 105.470 Low Nov 28

The downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A key short-term support at 105.955, the Dec 13 low, has recently been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. Sights are on 105.730 next, the Nov 30 low. Initial key resistance is 106.270, the Jan 5 / 12 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would ease bearish pressure and signal a reversal. First resistance is 106.070, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 101.98 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 100.81 High Jan 5
• RES 2: 99.83 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 99.71 Low Jan 16 and gap high on the daily chart
• PRICE: 98.39 @ Close Jan 23
• SUP 1: 98.00 Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: 97.39 Low Dec 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: 96.67 Low Dec 5
• SUP 4: 96.10 Low Nov 30

The trend needle in Gilt futures continues to point south. The contract last week cleared support at 99.60, the Jan 5 low. This reinforced a bearish theme and confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Dec 27. The contract has also traded through 97.97, Dec 6 high, signalling scope for an extension towards 97.39, the Dec 11 low. Firm resistance to watch is 99.83, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.23/77 High Jan 12 / 4
• PRICE: 117.31 @ Close Jan 23
• SUP 1: 117.06 Low Jan 18
• SUP 2: 116.63 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.18 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle

A bearish corrective cycle in BTP futures remains in play. Price has recently traded below the 20-day EMA and last week’s move lower delivered a print below support at 117.24, the Jan 5 low. This opens the 50-day EMA at 116.63 - the next key support. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 119.23, the Jan 12 high. A reversal higher and a break of this level would highlight a base and a potential resumption of the primary uptrend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Holding On To Its Most Recent Gains

• RES 4: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 4599.00/4634.00 High Jan 2 / High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4536.00 High Jan 11
• PRICE: 4515 00 @ 05:50 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 4402.00 Low Jan 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 4370.00 Low Nov 28
• SUP 3: 4334.00 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 - Dec 14 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4220.00 Low Nov 10

Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered from last week’s low of 4402.00 (the Jan 17 low) and the contract is holding on to its most recent gains. 4402.00 represents a key short-term support. A break of it would resume recent bearish pressure and open 4370.00, the Nov 28 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 4536.00, the Jan 11 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a potential S/T reversal and a resumption of the primary uptrend.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Northbound

• RES 4: 5000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 4982.62 1.50 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4952.45 1.382 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4915.11 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• PRICE: 4909.00 @ 06:40 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 4804.36/4713.85 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 4702.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: 4594.00 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 4550.75 Low Nov 16

The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and this week’s move higher reinforces current conditions. Resistance at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high has been cleared, confirming an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 4915.11 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support lies at 4713.85, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H4) Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: $86.50 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $84.22 - High Nov 30
• RES 1: $80.75/81.45 - High Jan 12 / High Dec 26 and key resistance
• PRICE: $79.74 @ 07:05 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: $74.79 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $72.67/71.21 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.84 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

The trend outlook in Brent futures remains bearish despite recent gains. Resistance at the Jan 12 high of $80.75 is intact and price is also trading below a key short-term resistance at $81.45, the Dec 26 high. A resumption of bearish activity would open $74.79, the Jan 3 low, ahead of $72.67, the Dec 13 low and bear trigger. For bulls, clearance of $81.45 is required to signal a stronger reversal. This would open $84.22, Nov 30 high.

WTI TECHS: (H4) Recent Gains Appear To Be A Correction

• RES 4: $85.71 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $82.04 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $79.56 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $76.31 - High Dec 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $74.49 @ 07:15 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: $69.56 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $68.28 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $65.63 - Low Jun 12
• SUP 4: $63.00 - Low May 4 and a key support

Trend signals in WTI futures remain bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. The contract has pierced the 50-day EMA at $74.25. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and expose $76.31, the Dec 26 high and a near-term bull trigger. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position and continue to highlight a downtrend. The trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is $68.28, Dec 13 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 3: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 2: $2062.3/2088.5 - High Jan 12 / High Dec 28
• RES 1: $2039.4 - High Jan 19
• PRICE: $2028.2 @ 07:21 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: $2001.9 - Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold is unchanged and trades above the Jan 17 low of $2001.9. Last week’s print below the 50-day EMA and the break of support at $2013.4, the Jan 11 low, has strengthened a bearish threat and a resumption of weakness would open a key level at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. For bulls, clearance of 2062.3, the Jan 12 high, is required to signal a reversal. This would expose $2088.5, the Dec 28 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $23.534 - High Jan 12
• PRICE: $22.582 @ 08:01 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 2023

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact and the metal traded sharply lower Monday, resulting in a clear break of support at $22.510, the Dec 13 low. This signals scope for a move to $21.883, Nov 13 low. A break of this support would further strengthen the bearish theme. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at $24.606, the Dec 22 high. A move above this hurdle would reinstate a bullish theme. First resistance is $23.534, the Jan 12 high.