MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/JPY Pullback Deemed Corrective

Price Signal Summary – EUR/JPY Pullback Deemed Corrective

• A bearish theme in the E-mini S&P contract remains intact and this week’s recovery appears to be a correction. Last week’s price action reinforces this theme. The move lower resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and a breach of channel support drawn from the Mar 13 low. A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The contract has recently breached support at 4276.00, the Aug 8 and 15 low and cleared 4220.00.
• The current EURJPY uptrend remains intact and yesterday’s pullback is considered corrective. Key resistance at 158.05, the Jul 21 high, has recently been cleared, confirming a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 159.92, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the 160.00 psychological handle. The AUDUSD trend outlook remains bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The pair has recently breached support at 0.6458, the May 31 low and a bear trigger. GBPUSD is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode for now. The trend condition is bearish and attention is on 1.2621, the Aug 14 low and the short-term bear trigger.
• The outlook in Gold remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The yellow metal has breached key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. The clear break strengthens bearish conditions and signals scope for $1865.8, a Fibonacci retracement. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent weakness appears to be a correction. Firm support to watch is unchanged at $78.33, the Aug 3 low. A clear breach of this level would signal scope for a deeper short-term retracement.
• Bund futures continue to trade above recent lows. The trend condition is bearish and the most recent recovery appears to be a correction. 130.60, the Jul 10 low, has been cleared. The break lower strengthens the current bearish theme and marks a resumption of the long-term downtrend. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract is consolidating for now. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 92.09, the Jul 7 low. This represents an important breach and confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend.

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1005 High AUg 11
• RES 1: 1.0940 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0858 @ 05:41 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 1.0834 Low Jul 6 and a key support
• SUP 2: 1.0804 Low Jun 15
• SUP 3: 1.0799 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0765 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 15 low

The trend needle in EURUSD continues to point south and Tuesday’s move lower reinforces the current bearish condition. The pair traded to fresh cycle low of 1.0833 yesterday, piercing support at 1.0834, the Aug 22 low. Price is trading lower inside a bull channel drawn from the Mar 15 low. The base lies at 1.0765 and represents the next objective. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.0940, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2887 High Jul 28
• RES 1: 1.2819 High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
• PRICE: 1.2749 @ 05:56 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 1.2617 Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 1.2591 Low Jun 29 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2439 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

GBPUSD is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode for now. The trend condition is bearish and attention is on 1.2621, the Aug 14 low and the short-term bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2591, the Jun 29 low and an important support. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 1.2819, the Aug 19 high. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8653/8669 100-dma / High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.8599 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8577 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8516 @ 06:31 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 0.8514 Low Aug 22
• SUP 2: 0.8504/8491 Low Jul 11 key support / 1.0% 10-dma envelop
• SUP 3: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8454 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 2022 bull leg

EURGBP traded lower into the close yesterday reinforcing bearish conditions. The move lower has exposed 0.8504, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend and signal scope for weakness towards 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, resistance to watch is 0.8577, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is at 0.8599.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 148.40 High Nov 4 2022
• RES 3: 147.49 2.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 146.93 High Nov 8 2022
• RES 1: 146.56 High Aug 17
• PRICE: 145.75 @ 16:45 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 144.93/143.89 Low Aug 18 / High Aug 3
• SUP 2: 144.17 20- and EMA
• SUP 3: 143.00 Low Aug 9
• SUP 4: 142.35 50-day EMA

The uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Last week’s move higher resulted in a break of 145.07, the Jun 30 high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting an uptrend. The focus is on 147.49, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 144.17, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Trend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.49 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 158.20 @ 06:51 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 157.73/156.35 20-day EMA / Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: 155.89 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 150.92 Low Jun 14

The current EURJPY uptrend remains intact and yesterday’s pullback is considered corrective. Key resistance at 158.05, the Jul 21 high, has recently been cleared, confirming a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 159.92, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the 160.00 psychological handle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting a rising trend. On the downside, initial firm support is 157.73, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still Intact

• RES 4: 0.6723 High Aug 1
• RES 3: 0.6609 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6522 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6480 High Aug 16
• PRICE: 0.6431 @ 07:56 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 0.6365 Low Aug 17
• SUP 2: 0.6285 Low Nov 4 2022
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

The AUDUSD trend outlook remains bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The pair has recently breached support at 0.6458, the May 31 low and a bear trigger. This strengthens the downtrend and paves the way for weakness towards 0.6285 next, the Nov 4 2022 low. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA - at 0.6522. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6609.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3736 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 2: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3575 High Aug 18
• PRICE: 1.3551 @ 08:00 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 1.3440 Low Aug 15
• SUP 2: 1.3428 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3367 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2

USDCAD short-term conditions remain bullish and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Recent strength reinforces the bullish condition and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The pair has breached 1.3523, 76.4% of the May 26 - Jul 14 downleg. This signals scope for a climb towards 1.3655 key resistance, the May 26 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.3428, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 133.45 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 132.52 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.17 High Aug 11
• RES 1: 131.78 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 131.28@ 05:10 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 130.14 Low Aug 15
• SUP 2: 130.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 129.69 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 128.80 1.236 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures continue to trade above recent lows. The trend condition is bearish and the most recent recovery appears to be a correction. 130.60, the Jul 10 low, has been cleared. The break lower strengthens the current bearish theme and marks a resumption of the long-term downtrend. Attention Is on the psychological 130.00 handle next. A break would open 129.69, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance is seen at 131.78, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 116.340 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 116.010 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 115.742 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 115.455 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 115.270 @ 05:15 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 114.960/114.710 Low Aug 21 / 15
• SUP 2: 114.550 Low Jul 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 114.180 Low Mar 7 (cont)
• SUP 4: 114.130 Low Mar 6 (cont) and a major support

Bobl futures are consolidating but remain in a bear mode and short-term gains are considered corrective. Support at 115.230, the Jul 13 and Aug 4 low, has recently been cleared and this signals scope for weakness towards 114.550, the Jul 6 low and the next key support. Clearance of this level would represent an important technical break. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 115.455, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 105.325 High Jun 14
• RES 3: 105.295 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 105.067/165 50-day EMA / High Aug 10
• RES 1: 105.050 High Aug 18
• PRICE: 104.930 @ 05:02 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 104.845/760 Low Aug 16 / 15
• SUP 2: 104.741 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - Aug 8 bull leg
• SUP 3: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures remain above last week’s low of 104.760 (Aug 15). Recent short-term gains appear to be a correction and a bearish threat remains present. The breach of 104.805 last week, Jul 17 low, strengthens a bearish theme. The focus is on 104.741, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a move towards 104.570, the Jul 6 low and the next key support. Firm resistance is seen at 105.067, the 50-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 95.82 High Aug 10 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 93.60 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 93.05/93.70 High Aug 16 / Low Aug 4
• RES 1: 92.41 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 92.06 @ Close Aug 22
• SUP 1: 91.19 Low Aug 17
• SUP 2: 90.70 1.236 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 90.10 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract is consolidating for now. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 92.09, the Jul 7 low. This represents an important breach and confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards the major support at 90.38, the Oct 12, 2022 low on the continuation chart. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 93.05, the Aug 16 high.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 117.48/60 High Jul 19 / Jun 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 116.86 High Jul 24
• RES 2: 114.89/116.02 50-day EMA / High Aug 9
• RES 1: 114.27 High Aug 18
• PRICE: 114.04 @ Close Aug 22
• SUP 1: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support
• SUP 4: 111.05 1.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - Jul 19 price swing

A bearish condition in BTP futures remains intact and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off reinforced current bearish conditions and the move lower has exposed the next key support at 112.95, the Jul 11 low. A break of this level would strengthen the bearish theme and open 112.48, the May 29 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is 114.89, the 50-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4539.20 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jul 3 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
• RES 2: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4341.10/4420.00 50-day EMA / High Aug 10
• PRICE: 4280.00 @ 05:56 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 4187.00 Low Aug 18
• SUP 2: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 3: 4122.00 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 4098.10 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg

A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The contract has recently breached support at 4276.00, the Aug 8 and 15 low and cleared 4220.00, the Jul 7 low. This opens 4177.40, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 4420.00, the Aug 10 high. Initial firm resistance is 4341.10, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 4634.50 High Jul 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4593.50/4634.50 High Aug 2 / Jul 27
• RES 2: 4560.75 High Aug 4
• RES 1: 4452.08/4469.84 50- and 20-day EMA values
• PRICE: 4413.25 @ 06:47 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 4344.28 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 4305.75 Low Jun 8
• SUP 3: 4254.62 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4216.00 Low May 31

A bearish theme in the E-mini S&P contract remains intact and this week’s recovery appears to be a correction. Last week’s price action reinforces this theme. The move lower resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and a breach of channel support drawn from the Mar 13 low. The Jun 26 low of 4368.50, was breached last Friday and attention is on 4344.28, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is at 4452.08, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: $92.10 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 18 price swing
• RES 3: $90.63 - High Nov 11 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $88.10 - High Aug 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $84.16 @ 06:53 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: $82.36/81.62 - Low Aug 3 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $78.10 - Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 3: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $72.04 - Low Jun 28

Brent futures continue to trade above last week’s lows. The latest retracement is considered corrective and the trend outlook still appears bullish. The recent move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the psychological $90.00 handle. First key support lies at $82.36, the Aug 3 low.

WTI TECHS: (V3) Moving Average Studies Highlight An Uptrend

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $86.62 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 2: $85.24 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 1: $84.16 - High Aug 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $79.82 @ 06:57 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: $78.33/77.36 - Aug 3 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $73.60 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $6972 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $66.83 - Low Jun 12 and key support

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent weakness appears to be a correction. Firm support to watch is unchanged at $78.33, the Aug 3 low. A clear breach of this level would signal scope for a deeper short-term retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $85.24, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in bull-mode condition that continues to highlight an uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1972.4 - High Jul 31
• RES 2: $1946.8 - High Aug 4
• RES 1: $1916.3/32.7 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $1903.3 @ 07:12 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: $1884.9 - Low Aug 21
• SUP 2: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 3: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

The outlook in Gold remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The yellow metal has breached key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. The clear break strengthens bearish conditions and signals scope for $1865.8, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in bear mode condition, highlighting current bearish sentiment. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is $1932.7, the 50-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Recovery Extends

• RES 4: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $24.838 - High Jul 31
• RES 2: $24.106 - 61.8% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 14 downleg
• RES 1: $23.747 - 50.0% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 14 downleg
• PRICE: $23.644 @ 07:23 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: $22.667/227 - Low Aug 21 / 15
• SUP 2: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 bull leg
• SUP 4: $20.591 - Low Mar 13

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact, however, this week’s move higher suggests potential for a stronger short-term rally. The metal has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - at $23.508. The break signals scope for a climb towards $23.747 and $24.106, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at $22.111, the Jun 23 low and a bear trigger.