MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/JPY Trend Condition Remains Bullish

Price Signal Summary – EUR/JPY Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• S&P E-Minis maintains a bullish tone and Friday’s resumption of the short-term uptrend reinforces current conditions. Last week’s climb resulted in a break of the 3820.00 hurdle, Oct 5 high. Furthermore, price has traded above the 50-day EMA, at 3836.32. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures theme remains intact. This follows the recent breach of trendline resistance drawn from the Aug 17 high and the break of the 50-day EMA.
• EURUSD trend conditions remain bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s key technical development was the break of the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. EURGBP traded lower Monday before finding support and recovering from the session low. The outlook is bearish following recent weakness and the print below support at 0.8579, the Oct 17 low, reinforces the current bear condition. The EURJPY trend condition is bullish. A key support has been defined at 143.80, the Oct 24 low, where a break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. Attention is on resistance at 148.40, the Oct 21 high. This is a bull trigger.
• A downtrend in Gold remains intact. A bearish theme follows the reversal from $1729.5, Oct 4 high. The move lower signals the end of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull phase. A continuation lower would open key support and a bear trigger at $1615.0, Sep 28 low. The WTI futures outlook improved for bulls last week and the short-term condition remains positive. The contract has defined a key short-term support at $81.30, the Oct 18 low. Note that resistance at $88.66, the Oct 12 high, has been breached.
• Bund futures remain in an uptrend following last week’s gains and the extension from the Oct 21 low of 134.02. With a bullish cycle in play and following the break of 138.52, Oct 14 high, scope is seen for a continuation higher. Gilt futures maintain a bullish theme following last week’s extension higher and the contract remains closer to its recent highs. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and the continuation higher last week resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Recent Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.0327 High Aug 12
• RES 3: 1.0273 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0198 High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.9998/1.0094 High Oct 28 / 27
• PRICE: 0.9982 @ 16:08 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 0.9876 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.9830 Former bear channel resistance-now-support
• SUP 3: 0.9807 Low Oct 24
• SUP 4: 0.9705 Low Oct 21

EURUSD trend conditions remain bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s key technical development was the break of the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel breakout highlights a stronger bull reversal and signals potential for an extension of the current cycle. The focus is on 1.0198 next, the Sep 12 high. The support to watch is 0.9830, the former bear channel resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.1834 76.4% Fib retracement for the Aug - Sep downleg
• RES 3: 1.1799 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - 12 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1738/52 High Sep 13 / 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.1645 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 1.1515 @ 05:42 BST Nov 1
• SUP 1: 1.1443 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1234 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 1.1061 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 1.0924 Low Oct 12 and a key support

GBPUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The outlook is bullish and last week’s breach of key resistance at 1.1495 has strengthened the current condition. The move higher confirms an extension of the reversal from 1.0350, Sep 26 low and this highlights a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The focus is on 1.1738 next, the Sep 13 high. Initial support is seen at 1.1443, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Theme Intact

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8781/8867 High Oct 21 / 12
• RES 1: 0.8693 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.86100 @ 05:54 BST Nov 1
• SUP 1: 0.8559 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 3: 0.8471 Low Aug 28
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24

EURGBP traded lower Monday before finding support and recovering from the session low. The outlook is bearish following recent weakness and the print below support at 0.8579, the Oct 17 low, reinforces the current bear condition. Attention is on 0.8559 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break would open 0.8522, the Aug 30 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 0.8781, the Oct 21 high, where a breach would reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 153.39 3.764 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 152.30 High Jul 1990
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21
• RES 1: 149.71 High Oct 24
• PRICE: 148.16 @ 07:08 BST Nov 1
• SUP 1: 147.08/145.11 20-day EMA / Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 144.22 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.53 Low Oct 5
• SUP 4: 141.77 Low Sep 23

The S/T outlook in USDJPY remains bearish despite the latest bounce from 145.11, Oct 27 low. The recent print below 145.56, Oct 24 low, reinforces a bearish condition and suggests the current correction is set to extend. Momentum studies are trending down, allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The focus is on the 50-day EMA at 144.22 - a key support. Key resistance is 151.95, Oct 21 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 149.71.

EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 149.46 1.382 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 148.88 High Dec 9 2014
• RES 2: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 1: 147.75 High Oct 31
• PRICE: 146.87 @ 06:30 BST Nov 1
• SUP 1: 145.26 / 143.80 20-day EMA / Low Oct 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 143.05 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 141.78 Low Oct 13
• SUP 4: 140.90 Low Oct 10

The EURJPY trend condition is bullish. A key support has been defined at 143.80, the Oct 24 low, where a break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. Attention is on resistance at 148.40, the Oct 21 high. This is a bull trigger and a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 149.46, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop. Initial support to watch is 145.26, 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Doji Candle Formation

• RES 4: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 0.6656 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 0.6600 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6539/47 50-day EMA / High Oct 4 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6438 @ 07:22 BST Nov 1
• SUP 1: 0.6368/6303 Low Oct 31 / 25
• SUP 2: 0.6210/6170 Low Oct 21 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle

AUDUSD remains bullish and yesterday’s price pattern - a doji Japanese candle - signals the end of the recent 3-day pullback. Attention is on 0.6547, the Oct 4 high and the 50-day EMA, a key short-term hurdle that intersects at 0.6539. A break of these two chart points would strengthen current bullish conditions. Note that gains are still considered corrective and the broader trend direction is down. Initial support to watch lies at 0.6368, the Oct 31 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.4016 3.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 1.3855/3977 High Oct 21 / 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3748 High Oct 25
• PRICE: 1.3568 @ 07:58 BST Nov 1
• SUP 1: 1.3496 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 1.3474 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3358 Low Sep 21
• SUP 4: 1.3227 Low Sep 20

USDCAD maintains a bearish tone and remains below 1.3977, the Oct 13 high. Support at 1.3503, the Oct 4 high, has been pierced and this strengthens a bearish case and has exposed the 50-day EMA at 1.3474. A clear break of these two chart points (a key support zone) would signal scope for a deeper pullback. The broader trend direction is up and a move lower is considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is 1.3855, Oct 21 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Key Resistance Is At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 143.26 High Sep 19
• RES 3: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 2: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 140.83 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 138.69 @ 04:56 BST Nov 1
• SUP 1: 137.57 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 136.46/134.02 Low Oct 25 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 133.74 0.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 4: 132.89 Low Oct 28 2011

Bund futures remain in an uptrend following last week’s gains and the extension from the Oct 21 low of 134.02. With a bullish cycle in play and following the break of 138.52, Oct 14 high, scope is seen for a continuation higher and the focus is on the 50-day EMA, at 140.83 - a key resistance. Note that recent gains are considered corrective. A reversal lower and a break of 137.57, Thursday’s low, would signal the end of the corrective cycle.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Short-Term Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 123.160 High Sep 8
• RES 3: 122.510 High Sep 12
• RES 2: 121.950 High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 121.010/330 High Oct 28 / 5
• PRICE: 119.840 @ 05:04 BST Nov 1
• SUP 1: 119.090 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 118.430 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 117.630 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures maintain a short-term bullish tone, despite Friday’s pullback. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and key short-term resistance at 119.960, the Oct 14 high. Clearance of this latter level strengthens the bullish condition and opens 121.330, the Oct 5 high, ahead of 121.950, the Oct 4 high and a bull trigger. Initial support is seen at 119.090, the Oct 27 low. A break would signal the end of the current bull phase - a correction.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 108.010 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 107.770 High Oct 4 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 107.400 High Oct 28
• PRICE: 107.000 @ 05:19 BST Nov 1
• SUP 1: 106.710 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 106.680/350 Low Oct 24 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

The Schatz futures primary trend direction is down, however, the contract remains in a bullish corrective cycle, following last week’s move higher and despite Friday's pullback. Price has traded above the 20-day EMA and cleared resistance at 107.180, the Oct 13 high. A resumption of gains would open the next key resistance, at 107.770, Oct 4 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 106.710, the Oct 27 low. A break would be bearish.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 106.84 High Sep 8
• RES 3: 106.25 High Sep 12
• RES 2: 105.34 High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 104.39 High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 102.13 @ Close Oct 31
• SUP 1: 100.38 Low Oct 25
• SUP 2: 99.59/98.15 20-day EMA / Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 95.82 Low Oct 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.82/92.66 Low Oct 17 / 14

Gilt futures maintain a bullish theme following last week’s extension higher and the contract remains closer to its recent highs. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and the continuation higher last week resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high. The breach strengthens bullish conditions and opens 105.34 next, the Sep 23 high. Key support has been defined at 95.82, the Oct 21 low. A break would be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Bull Cycle Still In Play Despite Pullback

• RES 4: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 119.06 High Sep 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 117.93 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 114.65 @ Close Oct 31
• SUP 1: 113.13 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
• SUP 3: 108.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support

BTP futures traded lower Monday. The short-term outlook is bullish following last week’s climb. The contract has cleared resistance at 112.25, Oct 14 high and 116.71, the Oct 4 high. This signals scope for a continuation higher near-term and attention is on resistance at 119.06, the Sep 8 high. On the downside, key support lies at 108.82, Oct 21 low and 108.13, the Sep 28 trend low. Initial support is at 113.13, the 20-day EMA.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Pulls Back From Last Week’s High

• RES 4: 113-09+ 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 112-22+ High Oct 6
• RES 2: 112-00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 111-31 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 110-25+ @ 15:49 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 110-16 Low Oct 26
• SUP 2: 109-20/108-26+ Low Oct 25 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108-06+ Low Oct 2007 (cont)
• SUP 4: 107.05+ 3.0% 10-dma envelope

Treasuries traded lower Monday as the contract extends the pullback from last week’s high of 111.31 (Oct 27). The primary trend direction remains down. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position and a broader price sequence of lower lows and lower highs is intact. A stronger resumption of weakness would signal the end of the recent correction and refocus attention on 108-26+, the Oct 21 low. Initial resistance is at 111-31.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Heading North

• RES 4: 3810.00 High Aug 17 and key pivot point
• RES 3: 3753.00 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 3692.00 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 3678.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 3644.00 @ 05:31 BST Nov 1
• SUP 1: 3498.10 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3418.00 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 3352.00 Low Oct 14
• SUP 4: 3251.00/3236.00 Low Oct 13 / 3 and a key support zone

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures theme remains intact. This follows the recent breach of trendline resistance drawn from the Aug 17 high and the break of the 50-day EMA. A number of retracement levels have also been cleared. Scope is seen for an extension higher near-term and sights are on 3678.00, the Sep 13 high and a key short-term resistance. Firm support is seen at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 3498.10.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4023.44 61.8% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 3981.25 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 3924.25 High Oct 28
• PRICE: 3908.25 @ 07:00 BST Nov 1
• SUP 1: 3757.50/3641.50 Low Oct 27 / 21
• SUP 2: 3590.50/3502.00 Low Oct 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3491.13 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 3453.78 1.618 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing

S&P E-Minis maintains a bullish tone and Friday’s resumption of the short-term uptrend reinforces current conditions. Last week’s climb resulted in a break of the 3820.00 hurdle, Oct 5 high. Furthermore, price has traded above the 50-day EMA, at 3836.32. Sights are on 3981.25 next, the Sep 14 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 3641.50, the Oct 21 low. Initial firm support to watch is at 3757.50, the Oct 27 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $105.58 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $99.50 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $95.30/96.75 - High Oct 27 / 10 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: $94.08 @ 06:37 BST Nov 1
• SUP 1: $91.45 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $87.52 Low Oct 18
• SUP 3: $84.67 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 4: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key support

Brent futures traded higher last week and a bullish theme remains intact. Key short-term support has been defined at $87.52, Oct 18 low, where a break would cancel the positive outlook. Recent gains have resulted in a break of resistance at $93.45, the Oct 14 high and this signals scope for a climb towards $96.75, the Oct 10 high and a key resistance. A break of $96.75 would further strengthen conditions for bulls.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 3: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $92.34 - High Oct 12 / 10 and key resistance
• RES 1: $89.79 - High Oct 27
• PRICE: $87.89 @ 07:05 BST Nov 1
• SUP 1: $84.14/81.30 - Low Oct 26 / Low Oct 18 and key support
• SUP 2: $79.63 - 76.4% retracement points of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 3: $78.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $75.70 - Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger

The WTI futures outlook improved for bulls last week and the short-term condition remains positive. The contract has defined a key short-term support at $81.30, the Oct 18 low. Note that resistance at $88.66, the Oct 12 high, has been breached. The break of this hurdle signals scope for gains towards $92.34, the Oct 10 high and a key resistance. On the downside, a move through support at $81.30 is required to undermine the current bull theme.

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $1729.5 - High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $1714.8 - High Oct 7
• RES 2: $1684.4 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1674.9 - High Oct 26
• PRICE: $1644.50 @ 06:52 BST Nov 1
• SUP 1: $1630.1/1615.0 - Intraday low / Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 3: $1600.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $1569.1 - Low Apr 1 2020

A downtrend in Gold remains intact. A bearish theme follows the reversal from $1729.5, Oct 4 high. The move lower signals the end of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull phase. A continuation lower would open key support and a bear trigger at $1615.0, Sep 28 low. On the upside, the next firm resistance is at $1684.4, the 50-day EMA. A break of the average would signal scope for a stronger correction.

SILVER TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $21.242 - High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $20.499 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - 14 downleg
• RES 1: $19.780/20.039 - High Oct 26 / 61.8% of Oct 4 - 14 downleg
• PRICE: $19.757 @ 08:05 BST Nov 1
• SUP 1: $18.791/17.967 - Low Oct 25 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish, however, today’s gains are a concern for bulls. A break above resistance at 19.780, Oct 26 high would signal scope for a stronger recovery and expose $20.039 initially, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a resumption of weakness would instead refocus attention on the next firm support at $17.967, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would open $17.562, the Sep 1 low and the bear trigger.