MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD Trend Conditions Remain Bearish

Price Signal Summary – EUR/USD Trend Conditions Remain Bearish

• S&P E-minis traded higher last week and the contract breached key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. Clearance of this level confirms an extension of the bull trend from Mar 13. This opens 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and the next important resistance. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher again Friday and the contract remains just below its recent highs. Price has cleared resistance at 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and a bull trigger.
• EURUSD trend conditions remain bearish following last week’s extension of the bear leg that started on Apr 26. The 50-day EMA, at 1.0881 and a former key support, has recently been breached. EURGBP is unchanged and continues to consolidate just above its recent lows. The trend condition is bearish. The break earlier this month of 0.8719, Mar 15 low, confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that began Feb 3 and this has opened 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement. AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following the pullback from 0.6818, the May 10 high. A bearish continuation would expose key support at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2 and highlight a range breakout.
• Gold remains in a bearish cycle and is trading closer to its recent lows. The yellow metal last week cleared support at $1976.3, the 50-day EMA and $1969.3, the Apr 19 low. A short-term bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and initial resistance at $73.81, the May 10 high, is intact. A resumption of weakness and a break of $69.39, the May 15 low, would strengthen near-term bearish conditions.
• Bund futures maintain a bearish theme following last week’s move lower. Support at 134.99, the May 10 low, was breached and this strengthened the bearish theme, paving the way for a continuation near-term. Gilt futures continued to weaken Friday and last week’s break lower marked an acceleration of the bear cycle. The contract has cleared support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low, and 99.20, the Feb 28 low and a key support level.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1054/95 High May 8 / High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 1: 1.0881/0908 50- and 20-day EMA values
• PRICE: 1.0882 @ 05:42 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 1.0760 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 1.0737 61.8% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.0713 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 1.0653 76.4% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run

EURUSD trend conditions remain bearish following last week’s extension of the bear leg that started on Apr 26. The 50-day EMA, at 1.0881 and a former key support, has recently been breached. This strengthened bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower towards 1.0737 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 1.0713, the Mar 24 low. A firm resistance is seen at 1.0908, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2767 61.8% of the Jun 1 ‘21 - Sep 26 ‘22 downtrend
• RES 3: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2547/2641 High May 16 / 11
• RES 1: 1.2493 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2428 @ 05:53 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 1.2392 Low May 18 / 19
• SUP 2: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: 1.2242 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run

GBPUSD maintains a softer tone following last week’s extension lower. The 50-day EMA which intersects at 1.2409, has been pierced. This average represents a key support and a clear break would strengthen current bearish conditions and expose 1.2345, the Apr 10 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2547, the May 16 high where a break is required to signal a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook Intact

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8770 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8733 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8685 @ 06:01 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 0.8661 Low May 11
• SUP 2: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 0.8593 Low Dec 15 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022

EURGBP is unchanged and continues to consolidate just above its recent lows. The trend condition is bearish. The break earlier this month of 0.8719, Mar 15 low, confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that began Feb 3 and this has opened 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, Initial firm resistance is at 0.8733 the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA intersects at 0.8770 where a clear break is required to signal a potential reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 140.52 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 low
• RES 3: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Jan bear cycle
• RES 2: 139.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 138.75 High May 18
• PRICE: 137.79 @ 06:23 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 136.31 Low May 17
• SUP 2: 135.78/134.70 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 133.50 Low May 4
• SUP 4: 133.02 Low Apr 26 and a key near-term support

USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact following last weeks’ strong gains. A key resistance zone between 137.77-91, the May 2 and Mar 8 high respectively, has been cleared. The break strengthens bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started on Jan 16. The focus is on 139.00 and 139.59, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support is seen at 135.78, the 20-day EMA. Key support is far off at 133.50, the May 4 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 150.32 76.4% retracement of the May 2 - 11 bear leg
• RES 1: 149.80 High May 19
• PRICE: 149.15 @ 06:39 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 148.09 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 146.56/13 50-day EMA / Low May 11
• SUP 3: 145.67 High Mar 31
• SUP 4: 145.22 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURJPY traded higher last week, extending the bounce from 146.13, the May 11 low. The 50-day EMA, which intersects at 146.56 today, remains intact and marks a key support. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 150.32 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to signal a resumption of bearish activity. Initial support lies at 148.09, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Eyeing Key Support

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6703/6818 50-day EMA / High May 10
• PRICE: 0.6634 @ 07:56 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 0.6605 Low May 18
• SUP 2: 0.6565 Low May 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6547 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following the pullback from 0.6818, the May 10 high. A bearish continuation would expose key support at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2 and highlight a range breakout. On the upside, a breach of 0.6818 is required to reinstate a bullish theme and this would expose 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDCAD TECHS: Looking for Gains

• RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3640 High May 3
• RES 1: 1.3568 High May 15
• PRICE: 1.3515 @ 08:01 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 1.3404 Low May 16
• SUP 2: 1.3363/15 Low May 11 / 8
• SUP 3: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3275 Low Feb 14

USDCAD remains above the May 16 low. The recovery from the May 8 low has eased recent bearish pressure and the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.3513. A clear breach of this average would strengthen the case for bulls and signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 1.3668, the Apr 28 high. Key support lies at 1.3302, the Apr 14 low. A break would reinstate a bearish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 138.09 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 137.55 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 137.29 High May 11
• RES 1: 135.32/136.38 20-day EMA / High May 16
• PRICE: 134.40 @ 05:20 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 133.50 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 133.10 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.71 76.4%retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 132.37 Low Mar 10

Bund futures maintain a bearish theme following last week’s move lower. Support at 134.99, the May 10 low, was breached and this strengthened the bearish theme, paving the way for a continuation near-term. The focus is on key support at 133.10, the Apr 19 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.29, the May 11 high. Initial resistance is 135.32, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Short-Term Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 119.190 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 119.120 High May 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 118.610/119.020 High May 16 / 11
• RES 1: 117.926 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.450 @ 05:05 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 117.020 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 116.890 Low Apr 28
• SUP 3: 116.720 Low Apr 25
• SUP 4: 116.420 Low Apr19 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures traded lower again Friday and the short-term outlook remains bearish. The contract last week breached support at 117.930, the May 10 low. The break signals scope for an extension lower and opens 116.890, the Apr 28 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 119.120, the May 4 high where a break is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 117.926, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 106.190 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 106.020/106.120 High May 11 / 4
• RES 2: 105.910 High May 16
• RES 1: 105.685 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 105.550 @ 05:35 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 105.390 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 105.350 Low Apr 28
• SUP 3: 105.235 Low Apr 25
• SUP 4: 105.165 Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger

A short-term bearish cycle in Schatz futures remains in play and the contract traded lower once again Friday. Price breached support last week at 105.705, the May 10 low. The clear break strengthens near-term bearish conditions and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 105.350, the Apr 28 low. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 106.120, the May 4 high. Initial resistance is seen at 105.685, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 101.98 High May 11
• RES 3: 100.74 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 99.73/100.11 Low Apr 19 / High May 18
• RES 1: 99.21 High May 19
• PRICE: 98.36 @ Close May 19
• SUP 1: 97.60 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 97.46 61.8% retracement of the Oct 12 - Nov 24 2022 rally
• SUP 3: 97.00 2.00 projection of the May 3 - 10 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: 96.41 2.236 projection of the May 3 - 10 - 11 price swing

Gilt futures continued to weaken Friday and last week’s break lower marked an acceleration of the bear cycle. The contract has cleared support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low, and 99.20, the Feb 28 low and a key support level. Note that price has also traded through the late Dec 2022 lows. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for weakness towards 97.00, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 99.73.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Bearish Theme Still In Play

• RES 4: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 116.17 76.4% retracement of the Mar 24 - Apr 24 downleg
• RES 2: 115.89 High May 11
• RES 1: 114.95 High May 18
• PRICE: 114.26 @ Close May 19
• SUP 1: 113.46 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.05 Low Mar 8

A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present despite Friday’s bounce. The contract traded sharply lower last Thursday and price moved below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Support at 113.91, the May 10 low, has been breached. This signals scope for an extension lower towards key support at 112.93, the Apr 24 low. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Key short-term resistance is at 115.89, the May 11 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Northbound

• RES 4: 4510.50 0.618 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 3: 4457.50 0.5 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 2: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• PRICE: 4397.00 @ 06:31 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 4313.70/4257.800 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4233.00 Low May 4
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher again Friday and the contract remains just below its recent highs. Price has cleared resistance at 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and a bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle from Mar 20 and a continuation of the medium-term uptrend. This opens 4409.50, the Nov 18 2021 high on the continuation chart and a key resistance. Firm support is at 4257.80, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 3: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 4231.00 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 4227.25 High May 19
• PRICE: 4203.50 @ 06:48 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 4119.78/4062.25 50-day EMA / Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 2: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4006.00 Low Mar 29

S&P E-minis traded higher last week and the contract breached key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. Clearance of this level confirms an extension of the bull trend from Mar 13. This opens 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and the next important resistance. Key support is at 4062.25, the May 4 low. A move through this level would highlight a bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: $85.08 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.88 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $78.74 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $77.60 - High May 10
• PRICE: $79.74 @ 06:42 BST May 22
• SUP 1: $73.49/71.28 - Low May 15 / 4
• SUP 2: $70.10 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

A bearish threat in Brent futures remains present. The contract has remained below the recent high of $77.60 (May 10) and below resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at $78.74. A clear break of the average is required to strengthen a bullish threat and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For now, the outlook remains bearish. A breach of $73.49, the May 15 low, would set the scene for an extension towards $71.28, the May 4 low.

WTI TECHS: (N3) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: $80.93 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.00 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.74 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $73.81 - High May 10 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $71.03 @ 06:57 BST May 22
• SUP 1: $69.39/63.90 - Low May 15 / 4
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5 2021 (cont)

A short-term bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and initial resistance at $73.81, the May 10 high, is intact. A resumption of weakness and a break of $69.39, the May 15 low, would strengthen near-term bearish conditions. The recent print below $64.67, the Mar 20 low and a key support, is a key bearish development. A clear break of it would resume the broader downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $2022.6/2063.0 - High May 12 / 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: $1999.0 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1972.9 07:15 BST May 22
• SUP 1: $1952.0 - Low May 18
• SUP 2: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: $1924.7 - Trendline support drawn from the Nov 3 2022
• SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

Gold remains in a bearish cycle and is trading closer to its recent lows. The yellow metal last week cleared support at $1976.3, the 50-day EMA and $1969.3, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this support zone highlights a stronger bearish threat and opens $1934.3, the Mar 22 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2063.0, the May 4 high. Initial firm resistance is at $2022.6, the May 12 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $24.492 - Apr 25 low and double top mid-point
• PRICE: $23.718 @ 07:21 BST May 22
• SUP 1: $23.327 - Low May 18
• SUP 2: $23.238 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: $22.761 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 4: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver remains bearish. The May 11 sell-off confirmed a double top reversal pattern following the break of $24.492, Apr 25 low. The metal has also breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a move towards $23.238, the Mar 30 low. Initial resistance is seen at $24.492, the double top mid-point. Key resistance has been defined at $26.135, the May 5 high.