MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURCHF Cracks Key Pivot Point

Price Signal Summary - EURCHF Cracks Key Pivot Point

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis registered a fresh all-time high Friday.The break higher confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower Friday. S/T pullbacks are considered corrective however and the underlying uptrend remains intact. Moving average signals still point north and the recent breach of 4223.00, Sep 6 high and a former bull trigger, highlights the bullish theme.
• In FX, EURUSD remains vulnerable and Friday's weakness resulted in a fresh trend low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. Price is once again trading below the base of the bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. Recent GBPUSD gains continue to be viewed as a short-term correction. The outlook remains bearish following the recent breach of 1.3412, Sep 29 low. This break confirmed a resumption of the bear trend and has paved the way for an extension lower. EURCHF has cleared 1.0505, the May 14, 2020 low. The break (potentially) exposes 1.0397 next, the Jul 15, 2015 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains bullish and recent dips are considered corrective. Recent gains and the clear break of resistance at $1834.0, Sep 3 high reinforces current bullish conditions and paves the way for further strength near-term. WTI futures continue to trade lower. Futures last week cleared $77.23, Nov 4 low. The break signals scope for a deeper corrective pullback as the recent overbought condition continues to unwind.
• In the FI space, Bund futures rallied sharply Friday, confirming a resumption of the current uptrend and signalling scope for further upside. Friday's breach of 171.95 - the 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off puts near-term momentum well in favour of bulls. The near-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the recent pullback between Nov 9 - 17 is considered corrective. A double bottom reversal confirmed on Oct 27 and a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.17155 / High Sep 22
• RES 3: 1.1625/92 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high / High Oct 28
• RES 2: 1.1514/1608 Low Nov 5 / High Nov 9
• RES 1: 1.1374/1473 High Nov 18 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1274 @ 06:15 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 1.1222 1.618 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.1185 Low Jul 1, 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1128 1.764 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1040 76.4% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 uptrend

EURUSD remains vulnerable and Friday's weakness resulted in a fresh trend low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. Price is once again trading below the base of the bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. The focus is on 1.1222 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 1.1374, Nov 18 high with the 20-day EMA at 1.1473. A break above 1.1374 is required to ease bearish pressure.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 2: 1.3621 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3533/3607 20-day EMA / High Nov 9 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3441 @ 06:18 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 1.3397/53 Low Nov 17 / Low Nov 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3334 1.00 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3304 Low Dec 22, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.3216 1.236 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing

Recent GBPUSD gains continue to be viewed as a short-term correction. The outlook remains bearish following the recent breach of 1.3412, Sep 29 low. This break confirmed a resumption of the bear trend and has paved the way for an extension lower. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bear mode, reinforcing current conditions. The focus is on 1.3334 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is unchanged at 1.3607, Nov 9 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Near Recent Lows

• RES 4: 0.8595/98 High Nov 5 / 76.4% of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off
• RES 3: 0.8538/74 High Nov 15 / High Nov 11
• RES 2: 0.8500 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8463/77- Nov 3 low / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8388 @ 06:27 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 0.8383 Low Nov 18
• SUP 2: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.8339 Low Feb 25, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8282/77 Low Feb 18, 2020 / Low Dec 13, 2019

EURGBP is trading near recent lows. The cross remains in a downtrend following last week's sharp sell-off. The recent key technical break was the move through support at 0.8403, Oct 26 low. The break reinforces bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend, opening 0.8356 next, Feb 26, 2020 low. The cross is approaching the base - at 0.8300 - of a broad multi-year range. Initial resistance is seen at 0.8463.

USDJPY TECHS: Monitoring The Bearish Engulfing

• RES 4: 116.87 High Jan 1, 2017
• RES 3: 116.09 1.764 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 2: 115.51 High Mar 10, 2017
• RES 1: 114.99 1.50 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• PRICE: 114.19 @ 06:32 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 113.59 Low Nov 19
• SUP 2: 112.85/73 50-day EMA / Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 111.51 Low Oct 8

USDJPY remains in an uptrend and last week's break of 114.70, Oct 20 high confirmed a resumption of this trend. However, recent gains have stalled and price action on Nov 17 is a potential concern for bulls. The price pattern on this day is a bearish engulfing candle and represents a short-term reversal pattern. A deeper pullback would expose key support at 112.73, Nov 9 low. Clearance of 114.97, Nov 17 high would remove bearish concerns.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Support Exposed

• RES 4: 132.56 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 131.59 High Nov 5
• RES 2: 130.65 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.99/130.12 High Nov 19 / High Nov 16
• PRICE: 128.68 @ 06:40 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 127.98/93 Low Nov 19 / Low Sep 22 and a key support
• SUP 2: 127.28 1.00 proj of the Jun 1 - Sep 22 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 3: 127.04 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 126.65 Low Feb 10

EURJPY was volatile Friday, trading sharply lower but did find support at the session low of 127.98. The sharp move lower resulted in a print below 128.33, Oct 6 low where a clear break would leave key support at 127.93 exposed, Sep 22 low. A breach of this latter level would open 127.28, a Fibonacci projection level. Friday's intraday high of 129.99 marks initial resistance. A break of this level is needed to ease bearish pressure.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Below Its Channel Base

• RES 4: 0.7599 High Jul 6
• RES 3: 0.7534/57 200-dma / 50.0% of the Feb - Aug sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7432/7471 High Nov 9 / High Nov 4
• RES 1: 0.7371 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 0.7249 @ 06:46 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 0.7227 Low Nov 19
• SUP 2: 0.7226 Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: 0.7170 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 0.7106 Low Aug 20 and a major support

AUDUSD has traded below the 0.7255 channel base (drawn from the Aug 20 low) and is trading near recent lows. The breach of its channel base reinforces bearish conditions and signals scope for a deeper short-term pullback. This has opened 0.7170, the Sep 29 low where a break would open 0.7106 further out, the Aug 20 low. Resistance to watch is at 0.7371, Nov 15 high. A break would suggest a base has been established.

USDCAD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.2849 High Sep 21
• RES 3: 1.2775 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 1.2739 High Oct 1
• RES 1: 1.2664 61.8.0% retracement of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off
• PRICE: 1.2641@ 06:50 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 1.2493/2387 Low Nov 16 / 10
• SUP 2: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2253 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 1.2229 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally

USDCAD conditions remain bullish and the pair traded higher once again Friday. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend and the pair has breached the 50% retracement of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off at 1.2592. This has opened 1.2664 next, the 61.8% retracement. Further out, there is scope for a climb towards the October high of 1.2739. Initial firm support lies at 1.2493, Nov 16 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Resumes Its Upleg

• RES 4: 173.93 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 173.54 High Aug 31
• RES 2: 172.95 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off
• RES 1: 172.42 High Nov 19
• PRICE: 172.16 @ 05:12 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 171.44 High Nov 9 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 170.06 Low Nov 5
• SUP 3: 168.98 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 167.69 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

Bund futures rallied sharply Friday, confirming a resumption of the current uptrend and signaling scope for further upside. Friday's breach of 171.95 - the 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off puts near-term momentum well in favour of bulls, opening potential for gains toward 172.95, the 76.4% retracement. On the downside, firm support to watch is unchanged at 170.06. Initial support is at 171.44.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Bullish Conditions Strengthened

• RES 4: 136.14 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 135.870 High Sep 3
• RES 1: 135.670 High Nov 19
• PRICE: 135.530 @ 05:18 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 134.929 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 134.700/320 Low Nov 11 / Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 133.900/690 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support (cont)

Bobl futures resumed their upleg Friday - the contract traded through resistance at 135.320, Nov 15 high. This confirms a resumption of the short-term uptrend and opens135.870 next, Sep 3 high. The break higher also signals scope for a climb towards 136.00 and beyond further out. Key short-term support lies at 134.700, Nov 11 low. The 50-day EMA at 134.929 marks first support.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Heading North

• RES 4: 112.656 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Jun 2020 sell-off
• RES 3: 112.585 High Mar 17 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.505 High Nov 4 2020 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 1: 112.480 High Nov 19
• PRICE: 112.450 @ 05:14 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 112.279/241 20- and 50-day EMAs
• SUP 2: 112.100 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 112.050 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 111.945 Low Oct 28 and major support

Schatz futures extended gains Friday and the contract has cleared resistance at 112.410, Nov 15 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the short-term uptrend and paves the way for gains towards 112.505 next, the Nov 4 2020 high (cont). Note that the break of 112.415 has resulted in a complete 100.0% retracement of the Aug -Sep sell-off, reinforcing the current bullish theme. Initial firm support lies at 112.241, the 50-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Bounce Defines Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 128.18 High Sep 10 and 14
• RES 3: 127.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg
• RES 2: 127.69 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 127.29 High Nov 9 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 126.78 @ Close Nov 19
• SUP 1: 125.40 Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 124.79/25 Low Nov 4 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 123.43 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 123.16 Low Feb 27, 2019 (cont)

The near-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the recent pullback between Nov 9 - 17 is considered corrective. A double bottom reversal confirmed on Oct 27 and a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows highlights the current uptrend. A resumption of strength would refocus attention on 127.69 next, Sep 21 high. Initial firm support has been defined at 125.40, the Nov 17 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Remains Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 1: 153.08 High Nov 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 152.85 @ Close Nov 19
• SUP 1: 150.72 Low Nov 12 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 149.89 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 148.14 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 147.12 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

BTP futures remain above recent lows and the contract traded higher Friday. The outlook remains bullish. Gains since Nov 1 have confirmed a short-term bull cycle and the recent breach of 152.54, Oct 14 high strengthens this short-term condition. The breach opens 153.59 next, Sep 24 high. Initial firm support is seen at 150.72, Nov 12 low where a break would undermine the positive theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 4498.00 High Dec 27, 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2, 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4420.80 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 1: 4409.50 High Nov 18
• PRICE: 4360.00 @ 05:51 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 4311.70 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4227.10/4223.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 6
• SUP 3: 4119.00 Low Oct 18
• SUP 4: 4004.00 / 3949.50 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures trade lower Friday. S/T pullbacks are considered corrective however and the underlying uptrend remains intact. Moving average signals still point north and the recent breach of 4223.00, Sep 6 high and a former bull trigger, highlights the bullish theme. The psychological 4400.00 handle has recently been probed and the focus is on 4420.80 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support lies at 4311.70, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Trend Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 4842.75 2.00 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4783.40 1.764 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4723.50/46.68 Intraday high / 1.618 of Jul 19-Aug 16-19 swing
• PRICE: 4707.00 @ 06:54 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 4625.25 Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 4546.35/4543.75 50-day EMA / Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 4472.00 High Sep 27
• SUP 4: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger

S&P E-minis registered a fresh all-time high Friday.The break higher confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 4747.68 next, a Fibonacci projection. Trend signals such as moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up and corrections remain shallow, reinforcing the bullish theme. The 50-day EMA at 4546.35 represents key support.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F2) Correction Lower Extends

• RES 4: $87.73 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $87.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $85.77 - High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $80.20/83.14 - Low Nov 4 / High Nov 16
• PRICE: $78.69 @ 06:50 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: $77.58 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $77.19 - 38.2% retracement of the Aug 23 - Oct 25 rally
• SUP 3: $75.80 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $74.70 - High Sep 15

Brent futures continue to trade lower. The contract breached key short-term support last week at $80.20, Nov 4 low. This signals scope for a deeper corrective pullback as the recent overbought condition unwinds. Potential is seen for weakness towards $77.19, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $83.14, Nov 16 high where a break is required to ease the developing bearish theme.

WTI TECHS: (F2) Bearish Cycle

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $84.50 - 1.236 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $83.30/83.83 - High Nov 10 / High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $77.23/80.68 - Low Nov 4 / High Nov 16
• PRICE: $75.88 @ 06:58 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: $74.76 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $74.25 - Low Oct 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $72.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $70.81 - Low Sep 23

WTI futures continue to trade lower. Futures last week cleared $77.23, Nov 4 low. The break signals scope for a deeper corrective pullback as the recent overbought condition continues to unwind. Potential is seen for weakness towards $74.25, Oct 7 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $80.68, Nov 16 high where a break is required to ease the developing bearish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $1916.6 - High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.7 - High Jun 3
• RES 2: $1903.8 - High Jun 8
• RES 1: $1877.7 - High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1844.00 @ 07:23 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: $1822.4 - Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: $1806.0/1759.0 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger

Gold remains bullish and recent dips are considered corrective. Recent gains and the clear break of resistance at $1834.0, Sep 3 high reinforces current bullish conditions and paves the way for further strength near-term. Note too that gold has also breached $1863.3, 76.4% of the Jun - Aug sell-off. The focus is on $1877.7 next, Jun 14 high and $1903.8, Jun 8 high. Support is seen at $1822.4, Nov 10 low.

SILVER TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $26.778 - High Jul 6
• RES 3: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 2: $26.002 - High Aug 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.406 - High Nov 16
• PRICE: $24.779 @ 07:27 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: $24.060/23.020 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

The Silver outlook remains bullish. Recent price action defined key short-term directional triggers at; $23.020, Nov 3 low and $24.828, Oct 22 high. The $24.828 resistance has been cleared and this break confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle, signalling scope for further short-term gains. The move opens $26.002 next, Aug 4 high. For bears, weakness through $23.020 is required to instead expose $22.213, Oct 6 low.