MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Eurostoxx Fades Off Resistance

Price Signal Summary – Eurostoxx fades from resistance

• S&P E-Minis traded higher last week to confirm a resumption of the current uptrend. The breach of resistance has resulted in a print above the 4100.00 handle and an extension higher would open 4180.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above support at 4097.00, Jan 19 low and the contract is trading just ahead of key short-term resistance at 4206.00, Jan 18 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 4215.00.
• GBPUSD continues to consolidate. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective and the current uptrend remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position reflecting positive market sentiment and the pair has recently pierced resistance at 1.2446, the Dec 14 high. USDJPY is consolidating. The trend direction remains down. Price remains below key short-term resistance at 131.58, the Jan 18 high and below the 20-day EMA, at 130.64. A resumption of weakness would open 126.81, a Fibonacci projection. USDCAD bearish trend conditions remain intact. The move lower last week resulted in a print below initial support at 1.3322. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for weakness towards 1.3226, the Nov 13 low and the bear trigger.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Recent cycle highs confirm an extension of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures remain below $82.64, the Jan 23 high. Key short-term resistance is located at $82.66, the Jan 18 high. Clearance of this hurdle would reinstate the recent bullish theme and expose $83.14, the Dec 1 high and $85.33, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Bund futures traded lower Friday and breached support at 137.53, the Jan 16 low. The move lower threatens a recent bullish theme and a clear break of 137.53 would signal scope for a deeper retracement near-term. Gilt futures remain in an uptrend and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent trend highs confirmed a resumption of the short-term uptrend. The move signals potential for a climb towards 107.06, the Nov 24 high and a key resistance.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.1054 High Apr 4 2022
• RES 3: 1.1022 3.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Oct 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0954 High Apr 11, 2022
• RES 1: 1.0929 High Jan 26
• PRICE: 1.0870 @ 05:33 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 1.0789/0767 20-day EMA / Low Jan 18
• SUP 2: 1.0634 Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 1.0617/1.0484 50-day EMA / Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 1.0427 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Key near term support levels remain intact and moving average studies continue to highlight positive market sentiment. A break higher would open the next objective at 1.0954, the Apr 11 2022 high. The 20-day EMA is the first support to watch - it intersects at 1.0789. A move below the average would signal the start of a correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.2558 High Jub 9, 2022
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2448 High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2396 @ 05:49 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 1.2270/64/59 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24
• SUP 2: 1.2117 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD continues to consolidate. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective and the current uptrend remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position reflecting positive market sentiment and the pair has recently pierced resistance at 1.2446, the Dec 14 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and open 1.2506, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2270, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8852/97 High Jan 25 / 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8768 @ 06:01 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 0.8761/22 50-day EMA / Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: 0.8630 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Jan 13 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8593 Low Dec 15

EURGBP traded lower again Friday but the cross remains above the key short-term support at 0.8722, the Jan 19 low. A break of this level is required to reinstate a recent bearish threat. For bulls, a resumption of gains would expose resistance at 0.8897, the Jan 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started early December last year.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 134.77/81 High Jan 6 / 23.6% Oct - Jan downleg
• RES 3: 133.64 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.87 High Jan 11
• RES 1: 130.64/131.58 20-day EMA / High Jan 18
• PRICE: 129.54 @ 06:18 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 128.36/127.23 Low Jan 20 / 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 125.49 1.50 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing

USDJPY is consolidating. The trend direction remains down. Price remains below key short-term resistance at 131.58, the Jan 18 high and below the 20-day EMA, at 130.64. A resumption of weakness would open 126.81, a Fibonacci projection - the bear trigger is 127.23, Jan 16 low. On the upside, clearance of 131.58 would be a bullish development, signal a short-term reversal and open 133.64, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 143.16 61.8% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 142.86/94 High Jan 11 / High Dec 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 142.30 High Jan 25
• PRICE: 140.76 @ 06:45 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 140.47/137.92 Low Jan 23 / Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 136.02 Low Aug 25

EURJPY is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains following the recovery from 137.92, the Jan 19 low. The 50-day EMA, at 141.74, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bullish condition and expose key resistance at 142.86, the Jan 11 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 137.39, Jan 3 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend that started in October last year.

AUDUSD TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Up

• RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 1: 0.7142 High Jan 26
• PRICE: 0.7091 @ 06:55 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 0.6994/6958 Low Nov 24 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6872 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6836 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3 and key support

AUDUSD remains firm and is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at 0.7063, the Jan 18 high. This has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on a move to 0.7172 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the 20-day EMA - it intersects at 0.6958.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3434/3521 20-day EMA / High Jan 19
• PRICE: 1.3333 @ 07:00 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 1.3301 Low Jan 27
• SUP 2: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3131 0.764 proj of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 - Dec 16 price swing

USDCAD bearish trend conditions remain intact. The move lower last week resulted in a print below initial support at 1.3322. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for weakness towards 1.3226, the Nov 13 low and the bear trigger. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. On the upside, the pair needs to clear 1.3521, the Jan 19 high, to signal a reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Has Breached A Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 142.55 High Dec 8
• RES 3: 141.70 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 140.73 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 138.62/139.36 High Jan 26 / 25 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 137.62 @ 04:50 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 136.88 Low Jan 27
• SUP 2: 136.67 50.0% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
• SUP 3: 136.04 Low Jan 10
• SUP 4: 135.71 61.8% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run

Bund futures traded lower Friday and breached support at 137.53, the Jan 16 low. The move lower threatens a recent bullish theme and a clear break of 137.53 would signal scope for a deeper retracement near-term. This would open 136.67, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 139.36, the Jan 25 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a base and highlight a bullish reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Breaches Support

• RES 4: 119.310 High Dec 14
• RES 3: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 2: 118.880 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 117.852/118.320 50-day EMA / High Jan 25 - a key resistance
• PRICE: 117.690 @ 04:57 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 117.280 Low Jan 27
• SUP 2: 117.170 Low Jan 11
• SUP 3: 116.950 Low Jan 10
• SUP 4: 116.740 Low Jan 6

Bobl futures traded lower Friday and in the process traded through support at 117.560, the Jan 16 low. A clear breach of this level would threaten a bullish theme and suggest potential for a deeper pullback and expose 117.260, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 118.320, the Jan 25 high. For bulls, a break would be a positive development and attention would turn to the bull trigger at 118.880, Jan 19 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Support Stays Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 106.517 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.370 Low Dec 12
• RES 2: 106.296 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 106.025/106.155 High Jan 25 / 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 105.890 @ 05:06 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 105.760 Low Jan 23
• SUP 2: 105.735 Low Jan 16 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 105.375 Low Jan 11
• SUP 4: 105.625 Low Jan 10

Schatz futures trend conditions remain bullish - for now - and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch lies at 105.735, the Jan 16 low. A break would alter the picture and instead signal potential for a deeper retracement. This would open 105.625, the Jan 10 low. Firm resistance to watch has been defined at 106.025, Jan 25 high. A break would be bullish and expose the bull trigger at 106.155, the Jan 18 high.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 107.06 High Nov 24 and key resistance
• RES 3: 106.23 High Dec 9
• RES 2: 106.18 High Dec 12
• RES 1: 106.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 104.64 @ Close Jan 27
• SUP 1: 103.79 Low Jan 23 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 103.21/102.78 Low Jan 17 / High Jan 6
• SUP 3: 102.19/101.40 Low Jan 11 / 10
• SUP 4: 99.97 Low Jan 3

Gilt futures remain in an uptrend and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent trend highs confirmed a resumption of the short-term uptrend. The move signals potential for a climb towards 107.06, the Nov 24 high and a key resistance. The first objective is 106.00. Initial firm support has been defined at 103.79, the Jan 17 low. A break would threaten the current bullish theme.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Pierces Support

• RES 4: 120.73 0.764 proj of the Dec 30 - Jan 12 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 118.57/96 High Jan 25 / Dec 7 and a key resistance zone
• RES 1: 116.94 High Jan 25
• PRICE: 114.61 @ Close Jan 27
• SUP 1: 114.18/13 Low Jan 27 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 113.50 Low Nov 11
• SUP 3: 111.59 Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 110.77 Low Jan 4

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. However, support at 114.46, the Jan 16 low, has been pierced. A break of this level would threaten the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 113.50 initially, the Nov 11 low. Initial firm resistance is at 116.94, the Jan 25 high. A break would refocus attention on the 118.56/96 resistance zone, the Jan 19 and Dec 7 high respectively.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Trading Just Ahead Of The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 4269.50 2.236 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4230.50 High Feb 10, 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4215.00 2.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 1: 4206.00 High Jan 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4167.00 @ 05:24 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 4097.00/4094.60 Low Jan 19 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3974.10 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3720.00 Low Nov 10

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above support at 4097.00, Jan 19 low and the contract is trading just ahead of key short-term resistance at 4206.00, Jan 18 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 4215.00, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend remains overbought. A pullback, if seen, would represent a healthy bull trend correction. Support to watch is 4094.60, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Bullish Price Sequence

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Aug 26, 2022
• RES 3: 4194.25 High Sep 13
• RES 2: 4180.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4109.25 High Jan 27
• PRICE: 4065.75 @ 07:08 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 4027.25/3954.84 Low Jan 26 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3901.75/3891.50 Low Jan 19 / Low Jan 10
• SUP 3: 3788.50/78.45 Low Dec 22 / 61.8% of Oct 13-Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 4: 3735.00 Low Nov 3

S&P E-Minis traded higher last week to confirm a resumption of the current uptrend. The breach of resistance has resulted in a print above the 4100.00 handle and an extension higher would open 4180.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support has been defined at 3954.84, the 50-day EMA. A move below the average would be seen as a bearish development and signal a short-term reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H3) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: $93.97 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $92.43 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $91.39 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 1: $89.18 - High Dec 1
• PRICE: $86.15 @ 06:53 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: $84.91/77.61 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $82.37 - Low Jan 12
• SUP 3: $75.64 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $73.73 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing

Brent futures remain above $85.41, the Jan 25 low. The recent move through resistance at $87.85, the Jan 18 high, marks a bullish development and cancels a recent bearish threat. Attention is on $89.18, the Dec 1 high. A break of this level would strengthen the case for bulls and pave the way for a climb towards $90.49, the Nov 17 high. Key short-term support to watch lies at $84.91, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (H3) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: $87.00 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $85.33 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 2: $83.14 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $82.66 - High Jan 18
• PRICE: $79.25 @ 06:59 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: $78.45/72.74 - Low Jan 19 / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $70.56 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $67.44 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures remain below $82.64, the Jan 23 high. Key short-term resistance is located at $82.66, the Jan 18 high. Clearance of this hurdle would reinstate the recent bullish theme and expose $83.14, the Dec 1 high and $85.33, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the support to watch lies at $78.45, the Jan 19 low. A break of this level would signal a potential reversal and allow for a deeper pullback.

GOLD TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $1998.4 - High Apr 18, 2022
• RES 3: $1982.0 - High Apr 19, 2022
• RES 2: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: $1949.2 - High Jan 26
• PRICE: $1931.2 @ 07:14 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: $1897.00/96.7 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 12
• SUP 2: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Recent cycle highs confirm an extension of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position - reflecting the uptrend. The focus is on $1963.0 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at $1897.00, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: In A Range But Trend Remains Up

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.548 - High Jan 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $23.693@ 07:25 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: $23.012 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

Silver continues to trade inside a range. The trend direction is unchanged and remains up and moving average studies are in a bull mode position. Fresh trend highs in December reinforced the positive theme. Furthermore, the move higher has maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support is at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.