MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EuroStoxx50 Bear Trigger Exposed

Price Signal Summary – EuroStoxx50 Bear Trigger Exposed

• S&P E-Minis maintains a softer tone as price extends this week’s bearish cycle and the pullback from Tuesday’s high of 3950.00. The next support lies at 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. A breach of this level would expose key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain soft as the contract extends its reversal from Monday’s high of 3584.00. The move lower exposes the key support and bear trigger at 3384.00, Jun 16 low.
• EURUSD maintains a short-term bearish tone and nearby key support levels remain exposed. Recent weakness means that resistance at 1.0600 is intact. This is the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. Despite the latest pullback in USDJPY, the trend condition remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. A fresh cycle high this week confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and this maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. AUDUSD is softer and the pair has traded below its key short-term support at 0.6829, the May 12 low. The break of this support confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started in February 2021 and maintains a broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• Gold has weakened and traded below its initial minor support levels. The move lower reinforces bearish conditions and attention is on the key support and bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. WTI futures found resistance at Wednesday’s high of $114.05. This peak marks initial resistance and a break is required to confirm a resumption of the recent recovery that would open $116.58, the Jun 17 high.
• Bund futures have resumed their short-term uptrend and corrective cycle. The contract has traded above resistance at 149.00 to signal potential for a climb towards 150.06, a Fibonacci retracement. Gilt futures key short-term resistance is at 114.55, the Jun 24 high. Despite a recent retracement lower, a short-term bullish corrective cycle still appears to be in play and a breach of 114.55 would signal scope for a climb towards 115.55, the Jun 6 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 1.0787 High May 30 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 1.0628/0774 50-day EMA / High Jun 9
• RES 2: 1.0600/15 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.0545 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0459 @ 06:13 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 1.0383/0359 Low Jun 30 / Jun 15
• SUP 2: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0233 1.382 proj of Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 Price swing

EURUSD maintains a short-term bearish tone and nearby key support levels remain exposed. Recent weakness means that resistance at 1.0600 is intact. This is the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. While price trades below this channel top, short-term conditions are bearish and the focus is on 1.0350, May 13 low and a bear trigger. For bulls, a breach of 1.0600 would alter the picture and highlight a bullish channel breakout.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.2495 76.4% retracement of the May 27 - Jun 14 downleg
• RES 3: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.2289 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2122 @ 06:20 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 1.2092/2042 Low Jun 30 / 16
• SUP 2: 1.1934 Low Jun 14 and High Mar 20 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020

GBPUSD is trading closer to its most recent lows. The outlook remains bearish and this week’s move lower reinforces this theme. Sights are on the key support at 1.1934, the Jun 14 low and a bear trigger. The primary trend direction is down and a break of 1.1934 would confirm a resumption of the bearish cycle. This would open 1.1795, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.2406, Jun 16 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Mar ‘22 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8662 High Jun 29
• PRICE: 0.8623 @ 06:34 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 0.8551 Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 0.8526 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8486 Low Jun 9
• SUP 4: 0.8433 Low May 23

EURGBP trend conditions remain bullish - a dip-buying theme was evident in Thursday’s price action. The cross is trading above important support levels and moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition that clearly highlights an uptrend. Attention is on a retest of 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and bull trigger. A break would resume the bull trend. Firm support is at the 50-day EMA - it intersects at 0.8526.

USDJPY TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 140.47 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 4 low
• RES 3: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 137.00 High Jun 29
• PRICE: 134.97 @ 06:42 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 134.27 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 132.17/131.69 Low Jun 17 / Bull channel base from Mar 4 low
• SUP 3: 131.50 Low Jun 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

Despite the latest pullback in USDJPY, the trend condition remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. A fresh cycle high this week confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and this maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 137.30, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 134.27, the Jun 23 low. A break would suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

EURJPY TECHS: Retracement Mode

• RES 4: 146.74 High Dec 30, 2014
• RES 3: 145.00/58 Round number resistance / High Dec 31 2014
• RES 2: 144.58 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
• RES 1: 142.86/144.28 High Jun 30/28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 141.27 @ 06:58 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 140.94 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 139.45 Low Jun 17
• SUP 3: 139.24/137.85 50-day EMA / Low Jun 16 and key support
• SUP 4: 136.25 Low May 30

EURJPY traded higher Tuesday, reaching a fresh cycle high of 144.28. The cross has since found resistance and continues to pull back from Tuesday’s peak. The cross has traded through support at 141.40, Jun 24 low, and this signals scope for a deeper correction, potentially down to the 50-day EMA that intersects at 139.24. The bull trigger is 144.28 where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Key Support Support

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7138 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 0.7069 High Jun 16 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6979 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6807 @ 08:16 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 2: 0.6759, 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘ 21 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6685 High Mar 9 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD is softer and the pair has traded below its key short-term support at 0.6829, the May 12 low. The break of this support confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started in February 2021 and maintains a broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The move lower signals scope for weakness towards 0.6759, the 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘ 21 bull cycle.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Price Structure

• RES 4: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
• RES 2: 1.3079 High May 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3017 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 1.2928 @ 08:21 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 1.2819/2807 Low Jun 28 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2732 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - 17 rally
• SUP 3: 1.2681 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 1.2518 Low Jun 8 and key support

USDCAD outlook remains bullish and the pair is trading above this week’s low. The recent corrective cycle appears to have stalled at Tuesday’s low of 1.2819. Looking at Japanese candle patterns, Tuesday is a doji pattern and this points to a short-term bullish reversal. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on resistance at 1.3079 the Jun 17 and a bull trigger. Firm support lies at 1.2807, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Corrective Cycle Resumes

• RES 4: 152.28 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.59 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 150.06 61.8% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 149.46 Intraday high
• PRICE: 149.35 @ 05:12 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 146.50/144.72 Low Jun 30/ 28 and a key support
• SUP 2: 142.56/140.67 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 140.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 138.68 Low Jan 2 2014 (cont)

Bund futures have resumed their short-term uptrend and corrective cycle. The contract has traded above resistance at 149.00 to signal potential for a climb towards 150.06, a Fibonacci retracement. A breach of this level would open the 50-day EMA, at 150.59. This average represents an important resistance. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 144.72, a break would highlight a bearish reversal reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Fresh Short-Term Gains

• RES 4: 126.710 High May 26
• RES 3: 126.090 High May 30
• RES 2: 125.780 High May 31
• RES 1: 125.112 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• PRICE: 124.470 @ 05:26 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 123.082 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 121.910 Low Jun 28
• SUP 3: 120.990 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 119.940 Low Jun 16 and bear trigger

Bobl futures are trading on a firmer note and the contract has cleared resistance at 123.960, the Jun 24 high. This confirms a resumption of the current bullish corrective cycle and price has established a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 125.112, a Fibonacci retracement level. Key short-term support has been defined at 121.190, the Jun 28 low. A break would highlight a reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bullish Price Sequence

• RES 4: 109.540 High May 31
• RES 3: 109.405 High Jun 1
• RES 2: 109.344 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 1: 109.255 Intraday high
• PRICE: 109.215 @ 05:37 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 108.726 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108.425 Low Jun 28
• SUP 3: 108.025 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 107.705 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

A bullish short-term recovery in Schatz futures has resumed. The contract has cleared resistance at 109.030, the Jun 24 high. This marks an extension of a corrective cycle and price has established a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 109.344, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 108.425, the Jun 28 low.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Short-Term Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 116.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 115.55 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 115.02 High Jun 8
• RES 1: 114.55 High Jun 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 113.98 @ Close Jun 30
• SUP 1: 113.03/111.72 Low Jun 30/29
• SUP 2: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 3: 109.89/60 Low Jun 16 / 4.50 proj of May 19 - 24 - 26 swing
• SUP 4: 109.33 Low Jul 8 2014 (cont)

Gilt futures key short-term resistance is at 114.55, the Jun 24 high. Despite a recent retracement lower, a short-term bullish corrective cycle still appears to be in play and a breach of 114.55 would signal scope for a climb towards 115.55, the Jun 6 high. The broader trend remains down with key support and the bear trigger defined at 109.89, the Jun 16 low. Initial firm support to watch though is at 111.72, the Jun 29 low. A break would be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Clears Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 126.43 High May 31
• RES 3: 125.11 High Jun 1
• RES 2: 124.48 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 14 downleg
• RES 1: 123.88 Low May 9 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: 123.12 @ Close Jun 30
• SUP 1: 119.81 Low Jun 28 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 3: 115.72 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 113.78 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger

BTP futures maintain a bullish short-term tone and yesterday’s gains reinforce this theme - price has breached resistance at 122.80, the Jun 24 high. The break suggests potential for a stronger short-term correction and attention is on 123.88 next, the May 9 low. Initial support to watch is at 119.81, the Jun 28 low. A break of this level would instead signal a potential short-term top.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3618.10 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3584.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3416.00 @ 05:43 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 3384.00 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 3189.10 1.50 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain soft as the contract extends its reversal from Monday’s high of 3584.00. The move lower exposes the key support and bear trigger at 3384.00, Jun 16 low. A break would resume the primary downtrend and open the 3300.00 handle. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 3584.00, the Jun 27 high. A break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Extends This Week’s Retracement

• RES 4: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4011.72 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3950.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3755.75 @ 06:54 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 3735.00/3639.00 Low Jun 23 / 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis maintains a softer tone as price extends this week’s bearish cycle and the pullback from Tuesday’s high of 3950.00. The next support lies at 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. A breach of this level would expose key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 3950.00 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. This would open the 50-day EMA, currently at 4011.72.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U2) Extends Pullback From Wednesday’s High

• RES 4: $122.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $121.68 - High Jun 9 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $118.12 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $116.24 - High Jun 29
• PRICE: $108.48 @ 07:04 BST Ju1 1
• SUP 1: $107.15/104.35 - Low Jun 27/22
• SUP 2: $101.86 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: $98.72 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $97.25 - Low Apr 25

Recent Brent futures gains stalled at Wednesday's high of 116.24. A break of $116.24 is required to resume the latest upleg and this would open $118.12, the Jun 17 high. Clearance of this level would expose the bull trigger at $121.68, Jun 9 high. For bears, the contract is trading lower and a continuation would expose the $104.35 key support, Jun 22 low. A breach of this support would strengthen bearish conditions.

WTI TECHS: (Q2) Still Facing Resistance

• RES 4: $122.68- 1.50 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $120.88 - High Jun 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: $116.58 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $110.27/114.05 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 29
• PRICE: $105.16 @ 07:15 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: $104.56/101.53 - Intraday low / Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: $99.36 - Low May 12
• SUP 3: $95.47 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $93.45 - Low Apr 25

WTI futures found resistance at Wednesday’s high of $114.05. This peak marks initial resistance and a break is required to confirm a resumption of the recent recovery that would open $116.58, the Jun 17 high. For bears, a stronger reversal lower from current levels would signal the end of the recent climb and this would refocus attention on the key support at $101.53, the Jun 22 low. A break would confirm a resumption of bearish activity.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Its Bear Trigger

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
• RES 2: $1864.2 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 1: $1832.6/52.4 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1798.3 @ 07:21 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: $1795.3 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

Gold has weakened and traded below its initial minor support levels. The move lower reinforces bearish conditions and attention is on the key support and bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. On the upside, key trendline resistance intersects at $1864.2. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high and a breach is required to reverse the short-term direction.

SILVER TECHS: Trades Through Key Support

• RES 4: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• RES 3: $22.046 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $21.343 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $20.464 - Low May 13 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: $19.915 @ 08:32 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: $19.838 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $19.000 - Round number resistance
• SUP 4: $18.693 - 61.8% retracement of Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 bull cycle

The Silver outlook remains bearish and the metal has resumed its bear leg - pricel has breached the bear trigger at 20.4635, May 13 low. The break lower confirms an extension of the downtrend that has been in place since early February 2021. The metal has also cleared the $20.00 handle and sights are on $19.581 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA, at $21.343 marks a key short-term resistance.