MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBPUSD Bears Remain In The Driver's Seat

Price Signal Summary - GBPUSD Bear Cycle Extends

• A bear cycle in the E-mini S&P contract remains in play and this week’s break lower reinforces current conditions. Support at 4483.25, the Sep 7 low, has been breached. A continuation lower would expose 4397.75, the Aug 18 low and the next key support. Initial key resistance has been defined at 4566.00, the Sep 15 high. A break of this level would be seen as a bullish development. First resistance is at 4511.54, the 20-day EMA. A strong sell-off in EUROSTOXX 50 futures Monday highlighted a bearish start to this week’s session. A continuation lower would refocus attention on key near-term support at 4210.00, the Sep 8 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late July. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 4359.00, the Sep 15 high.
• In FX, the EURUSD trend condition is bearish and the pair has traded to a fresh cycle low. The breach of 1.0632, the Sep 14 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position, highlighting current sentiment. Sights are on 1.0611, 38.2% of the Sep’22 - Jul’23 upleg. Initial firm resistance is 1.0749, the 20-day EMA. GBPUSD traded lower Wednesday to a fresh cycle low and is again softer today, with support at 1.2308 breached, the May 25 low. The move down once again, confirms a resumption of the bear trend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is 1.2227, the 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2548, the Sep 11 high. The USDJPY trend needle continues to point north and the pair is trading higher once again as the uptrend extends. The focus is on a climb towards 148.60 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting the market's positive sentiment. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards the 150.00 handle. Initial firm support lies at 145.91, the Sep 11 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded higher yesterday but quickly pulled back from the session high. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA does highlight a possible developing bullish threat. Key resistance is at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high where a break is required to confirm a bullish theme. On the downside, $1901.1, the Sep 14 low, marks a key near-term support. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and expose $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. In the oil space, the uptrend in WTI futures remains intact, however, the contract has entered a short-term bearish corrective cycle. The trend condition is overbought and a move lower would allow this to unwind. The first key support to watch lies at $86.25, the 20-day EMA and is a potential short-term objective. On the upside, clearance of Tuesday’s $92.43 high would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $94.66, a Fibonacci projection, the 2.236 projection of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing.
• In the FI space, Bund futures have continued to trend down. The contract has breached support at 129.72, the Aug 14 low and a key bear trigger. The break reinforces a bearish theme and confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on the 129.00 handle next. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 131.49, the Sep 14 high. Initial firm resistance is at 130.73, the 20-day EMA. Gilt futures yesterday breached resistance at 96.49, the Sep 14 high. The break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Aug 17 and this opens the 97.00 handle. Key short-term support has been defined at Monday’s 94.64 low. A reversal lower and a break of this support would threaten the bullish condition and expose 94.05, the Sep 11 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 1.1005 High Aug 11
• RES 3: 1.0945 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
• RES 2: 1.0833 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0749/69 20-day EMA / High Sep 12
• PRICE: 1.0637 @ 05:40 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 1.0611 38.2% of the Sep’22 - Jul’23 upleg
• SUP 2: 1.0551 Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: 1.0516 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0484 Low Jan 6

The EURUSD trend condition is bearish and the pair has traded to a fresh cycle low. The breach of 1.0632, the Sep 14 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position, highlighting current sentiment. Sights are on 1.0611, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is 1.0749, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Heads South

• RES 4: 1.2746 High Aug 30 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2607 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2548 High Sep 11 and Low Aug 25
• RES 1: 1.2446 Low Sep 7
• PRICE: 1.2303 @ 10:13 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 1.2295 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.2227 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2120 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 14 bull leg

GBPUSD traded lower Wednesday to a fresh cycle low and is again softer today, piercing support at 1.2308, the May 25 low. The move down once again, confirms a resumption of the bear trend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is 1.2227, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2548, the Sep 11 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 3: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8681 Trendline resistance drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 1: 0.8669 High Aug 11
• PRICE: 0.8632 @ 06:13 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 0.8594/69 20-day EMA / Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.8524 Low Sep 06
• SUP 3: 0.8516 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and the bear trigger

A short-term bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play and the cross traded to a fresh high yesterday. Price has recently breached resistance at 0.8611, the Aug 30 high, and the continuation higher signals scope for a climb towards 0.8681, trendline resistance drawn from the Feb 3 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 0.8569, the Sep 15 low. A break of this level would signal a potential top.

USDJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 149.71 High Oct 24 2022
• RES 3: 149.10 High Oct 25 2022
• RES 2: 148.85 High Oct 31 2022
• RES 1: 148.60 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• PRICE: 148.38 @ 06:36 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 146.93/145.91 20-day EMA / Low Sep 11
• SUP 2: 145.03 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 144.45 Low Sep 1 and key support
• SUP 4: 143.30 Low Aug 10

The USDJPY trend needle continues to point north and the pair is trading higher once again as the uptrend extends. The focus is on a climb towards 148.60 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting the market's positive sentiment. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards the 150.00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 145.91, the Sep 11 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Trading Inside A Range, For Now

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 158.65/159.76 High Sep 13 / High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 157.80 @ 06:42 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 156.59 Low Sep 11 and a key support
• SUP 2: 156.35 Low Aug 8
• SUP 3: 155.54 Low Aug 3
• SUP 4: 154.61 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 rally

EURJPY continues to trade inside a range. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA - at 157.08. This average has been pierced. A clear breach of it would undermine the uptrend and highlight a possible short-term reversal that would expose 155.54, Aug 3 low. The bull trigger is unchanged at 159.76, Aug 30 high where a break would resume the uptrend and open 160.66, a Fibonacci projection. First resistance is 158.65, the Sep 13 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6630 High Aug 2
• RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6508 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6414 @ 07:52 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 0.6357 Low Sep 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6287 2.00 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

AUDUSD is trading lower today. The trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish. Key support and the bear trigger at 0.6365, the Aug 17 low, has recently been pierced. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6272, the Nov 3 2022 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. A break would signal likely short-term trend reversal.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Gains

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3711 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 2: 1.3593/95 High Sep 12 / 7 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3527 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3489 @ 07:57 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 1.3381 Low Sep 19
• SUP 2: 1.3323 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Sep 7 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3266 Low Aug 2
• SUP 4: 1.3235 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Sep 7 bull leg

USDCAD maintains a softer tone despite its latest gains. This week’s move down has resulted in a break of 1.3490, the Sep 1 low and this was followed by a clear breach of the 50-day EMA, at 1.3473. The move lower reinforces a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The focus is on 1.3323 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.3527, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: 132.91 High Aug 8
• RES 3: 132.78 High Sep 1
• RES 2: 131.82 High Sep 4
• RES 1: 130.73/131.49 20-day EMA / High Sep 14
• PRICE: 129.28 @ 05:16 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 129.23 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 129.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 128.45 1.236 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 127.92 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures have continued to trend down. The contract has breached support at 129.72, the Aug 14 low and a key bear trigger. The break reinforces a bearish theme and confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on the 129.00 handle next. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 131.49, the Sep 14 high. A break would be a bullish development.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Heading South

• RES 4: 116.890 High Sep 8 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 116.458/740 20-day EMA / High Sep 14
• RES 2: 116.210 High Sep 18
• RES 1: 116.050 High Sep 19
• PRICE: 115.590 @ 05:28 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 115.551 1.382 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 2: 115.450 1.50 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.349 1.618 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.223 1.764 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing

Bobl futures remain in a clear downtrend and this week’s breach of 116.00, the Aug 15 low and key support, reinforces a bearish theme. The break lower has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for weakness towards 115.551 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm short-term resistance has been defined at 116.740, the Sep 14 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a possible short-term base.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 105.170 High Sep 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.140 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 105.010 Low Sep 13
• RES 1: 104.920 High Sep 20
• PRICE: 104.785 @ 06:13 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 104.780 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.645 Low Jul 12 (cont)
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures maintain a bearish tone and this week’s move lower reinforces this condition. Last week’s break of support at 105.130, the Sep 7 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has maintained the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 104.720, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance has been defined at 105.170, the Sep 14 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Key Short-Term Resistance Is At Last Week’s High

• RES 4: 97.68 1.00 proj of the Aug 17 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• RES 3: 97.57 High Jul 24(cont)
• RES 2: 97.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 96.71 High Sep 20
• PRICE: 96.48 @ Close Sep 20
• SUP 1: 95.90/94.64 High Sep 19 and gap low / Low Sep 18
• SUP 2: 94.05 Low Sep 11
• SUP 3: 93.36 Low Sep 6 and a key support
• SUP 4: 93.00 Round number support

Gilt futures have recovered from this week’s low and yesterday, breached resistance at 96.49, the Sep 14 high. The break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Aug 17 and this opens the 97.00 handle. Key short-term support has been defined at Monday’s 94.64 low. A reversal lower and a break of this support would threaten the bullish condition and expose 94.05, the Sep 11 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 117.48/60 High Jul 19 / Jun 26 and key resistance (cont)
• RES 3: 116.86 High Jul 24 (cont)
• RES 2: 115.56 High Aug 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 113.19/113.84 20-day EMA / High Sep 14 and key resistance
• PRICE: 112.42 @ Close Sep 20
• SUP 1: 111.67 Low Sep 19
• SUP 2: 111.38 2.618 proj of the Aug 24 - 28 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 110.77 3.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 28 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 110.00 Round number support

The Sep 15 sharp sell-off in BTP futures cancelled a recent bullish threat and this week’s move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has breached key support at 111.97, the Sep 13 low and this maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 111.38, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 113.84, the Sep 14 high. A break would highlight a possible base.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 4446.00 High Aug 10
• RES 3: 4409.60 61.8% retracement of the Jul 31 - Sep 8 downleg
• RES 2: 4388.00 High Aug 30 and key resistance
• RES 1: 4359.00 High Sep 15
• PRICE: 4261.00 @ 05:48 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 4234.00 Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: 4210.00 Low Sep 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4163.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 10 - 18 - 30 price swing

A strong sell-off in Eurostoxx 50 futures on Monday highlighted a bearish start to this week’s session. A continuation lower would threaten the recent short-term bullish theme and refocus attention on key near-term support at 4210.00, the Sep 8 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late July. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 4359.00, the Sep 15 high. A break would be bullish.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Downtrend Extends

• RES 4: 4673.50 High Aug 1
• RES 3: 4617.40 76.4% retracement of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 sell-off
• RES 2: 4566.00/4597.50 High Sep 15 / 1 and a near-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 4511.54 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4435.00 @ 07:14 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 4412.25 Low Aug 25
• SUP 2: 4397.75 Low Aug 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4352.50 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 4318.00 Low Jun 2

A bear cycle in S&P E-minis remains in play and this week’s break lower reinforces current conditions. Support at 4483.25, the Sep 7 low, has been breached, confirming a resumption of the bear leg that started Sep 1. A continuation lower would expose 4397.75, the Aug 18 low and the next key support. Initial key resistance has been defined at 4566.00, the Sep 15 high. A break of this level would be seen as a bullish development.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X3) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $100.50 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 3: $100.00 - Key psychological round number
• RES 2: $96.95 - High Nov 14 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: $95.96 - High Sep 19
• PRICE: $92.94 @ 06:50 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: $90.36 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $87.37/86.27 - High Aug 10 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $81.61 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $77.84 - Low Jul 17

The uptrend in Brent futures remains intact, however, resistance has forced price lower from Tuesday’s trend high of $95.96. The trend condition is overbought and a corrective cycle lower would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at $90.36, the 20-day EMA. On the upside, a move above $95.96 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $96.95, the Nov 14 2022 high (cont).

WTI TECHS: (X3) Overbought Condition Unwinds

• RES 4: $97.08 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: $95.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $93.31 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: $92.43 - High Sep 19
• PRICE: $88.94 @ 07:02 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: $86.25/ - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $83.49/82.02 - High Aug 10 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $77.32 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $73.40 - Low Jul 17

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact, however, the contract has entered a short-term bearish corrective cycle. The trend condition is overbought and a move lower would allow this to unwind. The first key support to watch lies at $86.25, the 20-day EMA and is a potential short-term objective. On the upside, clearance of Tuesday’s $92.43 high would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $94.66, a Fibonacci projection.

GOLD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1963.3 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg
• RES 2: $1953.0 - High Sep 1 and key resistance
• RES 1: $1947.5 - High Sep 20
• PRICE: $1929.5 @ 07:19 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: $1901.1 - Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: $1884.9 - Low Aug 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg

Gold traded higher yesterday but quickly pulled back from the session high. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA does highlight a possible developing bullish threat. Key resistance is at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high where a break is required to confirm a bullish theme. On the downside, $1901.1, the Sep 14 low, marks a key near-term support. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and expose $1884.9, the Aug 21 low.

SILVER TECHS: Recent Gains Appear To Be A Correction

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.014/149 - High Aug 30 / High Jul 27
• RES 1: $23.594/24.020 - High Sep 20 / 5
• PRICE: $23.221 @ 08:01 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: $22.301 - Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: $22.227 - Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 3: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver maintains a softer tone despite the recent recovery which appears to be a correction. The metal has recently cleared $23.413, the Aug 23 low. The break signalled scope for a deeper pullback and a continuation lower would open $22.227, the Aug 15 low. For bulls, a stronger reversal would refocus attention on resistance at $25.014 and $26.267, the Aug 30 and Jul 20 highs respectively. Initial firm resistance is at $23.594, Wednesday’s high.