MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Futures Remain in Short-term Uptrend

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Futures Remain in Short-term Uptrend

• S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A bullish theme follows last week’s strong gains that resulted in a break of resistance at 3928.00, Nov 1 high. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact. Price is consolidating but importantly, the contract remains at its recent highs. Resistance at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high and an important bull trigger, has been breached.
• EURUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the pair traded higher Tuesday. Recent gains have confirmed a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart - the definition of an uptrend. EURGBP remains inside its recent range. The trend outlook is bullish following recent gains - resistance at 0.8781, the Oct 21 high, was breached last week. This opens 0.8867 next, the Oct 12 high. AUDUSD remains firm and traded higher Tuesday. This reinforces current bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension of the rally that started mid-October. The pair has cleared 0.6768, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg.
• Gold traded higher again Tuesday and conditions remain bullish. Last week’s rally resulted in the break of a number of important resistance points. The yellow metal has cleared $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. WTI futures appear vulnerable following last week’s bearish price activity and this week’s move lower. A bearish shooting star candle on Nov 7 was followed by a bearish engulfing candle the following day and these patterns highlighted an early reversal signal.
• Bund futures continue to trade below last week’s highs. Price has recently pierced the 50-day EMA at 139.91. A clear breach of this EMA would threaten the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend and the contract continues to trade at its recent highs. The recent break of resistance at 104.39, the Oct 27 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.0615 High Jun 27
• RES 3: 1.0559 1.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0536 High Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.0479 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 1.0371 @ 05:42 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 1.0272/0163 Low Nov 14 / 11
• SUP 2: 1.0094 High Oct 27 and a key near-term resistance
• SUP 3: 0.9936 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.9836 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 28 low

EURUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the pair traded higher Tuesday. Recent gains have confirmed a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart - the definition of an uptrend. Note too that moving average studies have crossed to highlight a bull mode set-up. Resistance at 1.0368, the Aug 10 high, has been breached. This opens 1.0536, the late June high. Initial firm support lies at 1.0094 the Oct 27 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Is Up But Nearing Overbought Territory

• RES 4: 1.2249 200-dma
• RES 3: 1.2069 1.00 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - 12 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2028 High Nov 15
• RES 1: 1.2013 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 1.1876 @ 06:08 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 1.1647 Low Nov 11
• SUP 2: 1.1487 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1334/1150 Low Nov 09 / Nov 04 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1061 Low Oct 21

GBPUSD traded to new multi-month highs at 1.2028 on Tuesday. The trend still points higher, but technical signals point to a moderation of gains going forward. Prices yesterday pierced the 3.0% 10-dma envelope which was followed by a pull lower in spot - an indication that the trend condition is nearing overbought territory. A move lower, if seen, would likely be a correction. Yesterday’s high of 1.2028 is the trigger for a resumption of gains.

EURGBP TECHS: Consolidating But Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 1: 0.8829 High Nov 09
• PRICE: 0.8733 @ 06:13 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 0.8693 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP remains inside its recent range. The trend outlook is bullish following recent gains - resistance at 0.8781, the Oct 21 high, was breached last week. This opens 0.8867 next, the Oct 12 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position and this suggests that the broader uptrend remains intact. For bears, a move through the Oct 31 low of 0.8560 is required to resume bearish activity.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 144.60 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 144.14 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.48 High Nov 11
• RES 1: 140.80 High Nov 14
• PRICE: 139.74 @ 06:54 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 137.68 Low Nov 15
• SUP 2: 137.37 Low Aug 29
• SUP 3: 135.82 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 135.49 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg

Short-term trend conditions in USDJPY remain bearish and the pair is trading at its recent lows. A resumption of weakness would set the scene for a move towards 137.37, the Aug 29 low. The pair has pierced 138.64, 61.8% of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg. A clear break of this key Fibonacci retracement, would reinforce bearish conditions. The 50-day EMA at 114.14 remains a key short-term resistance.

EURJPY TECHS: Recovers From Friday’s Low

• RES 4: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 3: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 2: 147.10 High Nov 9
• RES 1: 145.27 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 144.33 @ 16:08 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 142.57 Low Nov 11 and the bear Trigger
• SUP 2: 141.78 Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: 140.90 Low Oct 10
• SUP 4: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 rally

EURJPY has recovered from last week’s low print of 142.57. Recent bearish activity resulted in a break of support at 143.80, the Oct 24 low and price traded below the 50-day EMA. A resumption of weakness would signal potential for a deeper retracement and this would open 141.78, the Oct 13 low. On the upside, a break of resistance at 147.10, the Nov 9 high, would instead expose the bull trigger at 148.40, the Oct 21 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 3: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 0.6800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6797 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 0.6775 @ 08:13 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 0.6663/6578 Low Nov 14 / 11
• SUP 2: 0.6538/0.6508 50-day EMA / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support

AUDUSD remains firm and traded higher Tuesday. This reinforces current bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension of the rally that started mid-October. The pair has cleared 0.6768, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg. The break opens the 0.6800 handle next. Firm short-term support has been defined at 0.6387, the Nov 10 low. Initial support lies at 0.6663 and 0.6578, the Nov 14 and 11 lows respectively.

USDCAD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3707 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 high
• RES 2: 1.3571 High Nov 10
• RES 1: 1.3361/1.3467 High Nov 11 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3256 @ 08:07 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 1.3226 Low Nov 15
• SUP 2: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3139 Low Sep 14
• SUP 4: 1.3023 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD is consolidating at its recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a new multi-month low and confirmed a resumption of the current bear cycle. This also marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A continuation lower would open 1.3205, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3571, the Nov 10 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Resistance Still Exposed

• RES 4: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 3: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 140.92 High Oct 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 140.72 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 139.22 @ 05:11 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 138.29 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 135.76/65 Low Nov 8 / 76.4% of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase
• SUP 3: 135.23 Low Oct 24
• SUP 4: 134.02 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger

Bund futures continue to trade below last week’s highs. Price has recently pierced the 50-day EMA at 139.91. A clear breach of this EMA would threaten the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. This would open 140.92, the Oct 28 high and 142.87, the Oct 4 high. The 20-day EMA marks initial support - it intersects at 138.29. Key short-term support lies at 135.76, the Nov 8 low.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Still Trading Above Support

• RES 4: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 121.010 High Oct 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.530 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 119.550 @ 05:16 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 119.110/118.260 Low Nov 10 / 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 117.630 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.986 2.764 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures continue to trade below last week’s highs. The rally last week resulted in a test above the 50-day EMA, at 120.252 today. A clear break of this EMA would undermine the recent bearish theme and expose 121.010, the Oct 28 high and potentially 121.950 further out, the Oct 4 high. On the downside, a break of 118.260, Nov 8 low is required to highlight a resumption of bearish activity and expose the key bear trigger at 117.630.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Key Resistance Is Seen At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 3: 107.400 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 107.183 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.075 High Nov 11
• PRICE: 106.730 @ 05:30 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 106.615/415 Low Nov 10 / 8
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

Schatz futures continue to trade above the Nov 8 low. The trend condition remains bearish, however, a resumption of last week’s gains would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 107.183. Clearance of this average would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. On the downside, key support lies at 106.415, the Nov 8 low and 106.350, the Oct 21 low. The latter is a bear trigger.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 107.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 106.84 High Sep 8
• RES 2: 106.25 High Sep 12
• RES 1: 105.59 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 104.97 @ Close Nov 15
• SUP 1: 102.44/99.92 50-day EMA / Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 98.15 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 95.82 Low Oct 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.82/92.66 Low Oct 17 / 14

Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend and the contract continues to trade at its recent highs. The recent break of resistance at 104.39, the Oct 27 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The move higher also confirmed the recent bull flag formation on the daily chart. Resistance at 105.34, the Nov 4 high has been pierced. A clear break would open 106.25, the Sep 12 high. Key support is at 99.92, the Nov 8 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 119.06 High Sep 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 118.00 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 117.58 @ Close Nov 15
• SUP 1: 114.70/112.45 20-day EMA / Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
• SUP 3: 108.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support

BTP futures traded higher Tuesday but price remains below last week’s high. Gains last week resulted in a test of resistance at 117.93, the Oct 27 high. A clear break would suggest scope for an extension towards 119.06, the Sep 8 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support is seen at 114.70, the 20-day EMA ahead of 112.45, the Nov 8 low. A break below the latter would reinstate a bearish theme.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) 50-Day EMA Cracking

• RES 4: 115-14+ 50.0% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 downleg
• RES 3: 114-17 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 113-30 High Oct 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 112-31+ High Nov 15
• PRICE: 112-17+ @ 15:22 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 111-03+/109-10+ 20-day EMA / Low Nov 04
• SUP 2: 108-26+ Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108-06+ Low Oct 2007 (cont)
• SUP 4: 107.16+ 3.0% 10-dma envelope

Short-term trend conditions in Treasuries remain bullish following last week’s gains. Resistance at 111-31, the Oct 27 high, has been cleared and the contract has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 112-12+. The clear break of this EMA would strengthen the case for short-term bulls and open 113-30, the Oct 4 high and a key resistance. On the downside, key support has been defined at 108-26+, the Oct 21 low. Initial support lies at 111-03+, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 3961.20 61.8/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance (cont)
• RES 1: 3932.00 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 3896.00 @ 06:12 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 3810.00/3697.00 High Aug 7 / Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 3591.50 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3562.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3418.00 Low Oct 21

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact. Price is consolidating but importantly, the contract remains at its recent highs. Resistance at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high and an important bull trigger, has been breached. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up and this highlights positive market sentiment. The focus is on 3944.00, Mar 29 high on the continuation chart. Initial firm support lies at 3697.00, the Nov 10 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 4175.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4146.63 76.4% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4050.75 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 4006.50 @ 06:59 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 3848.65 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3750.00 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 3704.25 Low Nov3 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 3641.50 Low Oct 21

S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A bullish theme follows last week’s strong gains that resulted in a break of resistance at 3928.00, Nov 1 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and price has established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily scale. The focus is on 4100.00 next. On the downside, key short-term support is at 3704.25, the Nov 3 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $105.58 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $100.10 - High Jul 29
• RES 1: $96.95/99.56 - High Nov 14 / 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $93.21 @ 06:54 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: $91.53 - Low Nov 15 and a key support
• SUP 2: $87.52 - Low Oct 18 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $83.38 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key medium-term support

Brent futures traded lower Monday and a bearish threat remains present. A bearish engulfing pattern on Nov 8 provided an early reversal signal. Price is testing the 50-day EMA at $92.73. A clear break of this EMA would open the $90.00 handle and $87.52, the Oct 18 low and a key support. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $99.56, the Nov 7 high. A break would be bullish.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Still Appears Vulnerable

• RES 4: $99.79 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 2: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $90.10/93.74 - High Nov 11 / 7 and key resistance
• PRICE: $85.96 @ 07:11 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: $84.06 - Low Nov 15
• SUP 2: $81.30 - Low Oct 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $78.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $75.70 - Low Sep 26 and a key medium-term support

WTI futures appear vulnerable following last week’s bearish price activity and this week’s move lower. A bearish shooting star candle on Nov 7 was followed by a bearish engulfing candle the following day and these patterns highlighted an early reversal signal. A continuation lower would open $81.30, the Oct 18 low and a key support. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at $93.74, Nov 7 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.

GOLD TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1800.0 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $1786.5 - High Nov 15
• PRICE: $1772.6 @ 07:15 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: $1729.5/1702.3 - High Oct 4 / Low Nov 9
• SUP 2: $1694.4 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1664.8 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger

Gold traded higher again Tuesday and conditions remain bullish. Last week’s rally resulted in the break of a number of important resistance points. The yellow metal has cleared $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. This strengthens the current bullish theme and opens the $1800.0 handle and a key resistance at $1807.9, the Aug 10 high. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $1702.3, the Nov 9 low.

SILVER TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $23.567 - High Apr 29
• RES 3: $23.360 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• RES 1: $22.252 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• PRICE: $21.555 @ 07:26 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: $20.482 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $19.914 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $18.835/17.967 - Low Nov 3 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 4: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger

The Silver outlook is unchanged and near-term conditions remain bullish. The metal rallied sharply higher on Nov 4 and bulls haven’t looked back. Price has breached resistance at $21.242, the Oct 4 high. The break strengthens bullish conditions and highlights a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. This opens $22.253, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support is seen at $20.482, the 20-day EMA.