MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Pullback Highlights Potential for Deeper Correction

Price Signal Summary – Gold Pullback Highlights Potential for Deeper Correction

• The trend outlook in S&P E-minis remains bullish and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Attention is on the 4200.00 handle where a break would open 4205.50, the Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a key medium-term resistance. Eurostoxx 50 futures are consolidating at recent highs and the uptrend remains intact. Recent gains have reinforced the bullish significance of the break of 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a former key resistance.
• GBPUSD remains in an uptrend the recent pullback appears to be a correction. The pair has pierced support at 1.2376 the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper correction. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on last week’s 1.2546 high. The current short-term uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and the pair traded higher Wednesday. Resistance at 134.75, 61.8% of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg, has been breached. This strengthens the current bullish theme and signals scope for an extension towards 135.96 next. The AUDUSD rate is unchanged and remains just below the 50-day EMA, at 0.6734. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6806, the Apr 14 high. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bullish theme and open 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish, however, the yellow metal has entered a short-term corrective cycle and traded lower Wednesday. Price has breached initial firm support at $1985.5, the 20-day EMA, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. WTI futures are trading lower this week. This has resulted in a breach of support at $79.00, the Apr 3 low and the gap high on the daily chart. A continuation lower would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards the 50-day EMA at $77.42.
• Bund futures maintain a bearish tone and the contract traded lower Wednesday. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, at 135.18, and key short-term support at 134.70 has been cleared, the Mar 31 low. A short-term bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and the contract traded lower Wednesday. Price has recently breached support at 102.74, the Mar 20 low and bear trigger. The extension lower has also resulted in a move through the 100.00 handle.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Support At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022 and high Apr 14
• RES 1: 1.1000 High Apr 17
• PRICE: 1.0958 @ 05:54 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 1.0909 Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 1.0898 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0831 Low Apr 10
• SUP 4: 1.0803 50-day EMA

The uptrend in EURUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade above 1.0898, the 20-day EMA. The recent breach of 1.1033, Feb 2 high, reinforces bullish conditions and maintains the trend sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The bull trigger is 1.1076, Apr 14 high. The focus is on 1.1127, a Fibonacci projection and 1.1185, Mar 31 2022 high. On the downside, a break of the 20-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.

GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.2681 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 2: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• RES 1: 1.2474/2546 High Apr 19 / 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2431 @ 06:08 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10
• SUP 2: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.2265 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2191 Low Mar 24

GBPUSD remains in an uptrend the recent pullback appears to be a correction. The pair has pierced support at 1.2376 the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper correction. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on last week’s 1.2546 high where a break would resume the uptrend and open 1.2599, Jun 7 2022 high. Support below the 20-day EMA lies at 1.2345, the Apr 10 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Recent Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8880 61.8 retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8872 High Apr 17
• RES 1: 0.8838 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 0.8817 @ 06:24 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 0.8792 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 0.8763/8729 Low Apr 11 / 4
• SUP 3: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP remains in a bull cycle and the recent retracement is considered corrective. The cross traded above trendline resistance last week. The line intersects at 0.8846 and is drawn from the Feb 3 high. 0.8866, the Mar 23 high, has been pierced. A clear break of the trendline and 0.8866 would open 0.8880, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 0.8719, Mar 15 low. A break would be bearish. Initial firm support is 0.8792, the Apr 19 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 137.38 High Mar 9
• RES 3: 136.99 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 135.13 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 134.80 @ 06:32 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 133.23 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 132.02 Low Apr 13
• SUP 3: 131.53 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 130.64 Low Apr 5 and a key support

The current short-term uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and the pair traded higher Wednesday. Resistance at 134.75, 61.8% of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg, has been breached. This strengthens the current bullish theme and signals scope for an extension towards 135.96 next, the 76.4% retracement. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 133.23, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term support is at 132.02, the Apr 13 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 150.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 149.39 1.00 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 148.40 High Oct 21 2022 and key resistance
• RES 1: 147.86 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 147.57 @ 07:03 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 146.08/145.67 Low Apr 13 / High Mar 31
• SUP 2: 145.19 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.95 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 142.55 Low Apr 6

EURJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the cross is holding on to its recent gains. The Apr 11 break of 145.67, Mar 31 high, strengthened bullish conditions and the continued appreciation has opened 148.40 next, the Oct 21 2022 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up highlighting a rising trend. Key short-term support has been defined at 142.55, the Apr 6 low. Initial firm support lies at 145.19, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6734/0.6806 50-day EMA / High Apr 14
• PRICE: 0.6722 @ 07:22 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 0.6681/6620 Low Apr 17 / 10
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

The AUDUSD rate is unchanged and remains just below the 50-day EMA, at 0.6734. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6806, the Apr 14 high. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bullish theme and open 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.6620, the Apr 10 low. A break of this level would represent a bearish development and leave the bear trigger at 0.6565 exposed, Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Correction Extends

• RES 4: 1.3517 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 1.3554 High Apr 10
• RES 2: 1.3528 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3487 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3458 @ 08:03 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 1.3385/3302 Low Apr 19 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
• SUP 3: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 2022

The downtrend in USDCAD is intact, however, the pair remains in a short-term corrective cycle for now and yesterday’s gains reinforce this theme. Resistance levels to watch are 1.3487, the 20-day EMA and 1.3528, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this zone is required to suggest a stronger reversal. On the downside, the bear trigger is 1.3302 - a break would resume the recent downtrend and open the 1.3262 key support, the Feb 2 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 139.54 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 136.44/138.09 High Apr 12 / 6 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.18 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 134.26 High Apr 18
• PRICE: 133.55 @ 05:21 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 133.10 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 132.37 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 132.00 Round number support

Bund futures maintain a bearish tone and the contract traded lower Wednesday. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, at 135.18, and key short-term support at 134.70 has been cleared, the Mar 31 low. The continuation lower has opened 132.70, a Fibonacci retracement. A move above 138.09, the Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 135.18.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 119.307 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 2: 118.280/119.190 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
• RES 1: 117.160/601 High Apr 18 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116.700 @ 05:31 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 116.420 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 115.700 Low Mar 10

Bobl futures traded lower again Wednesday and the outlook remains bearish. The contract has breached 117.200, the Mar 31 low. This reinforces the bearish theme and the focus is on 116.370, the Mar 15 low. A break of this level would open 116.125, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 119.190, Mar 27 high and the trigger for a stronger short-term climb. Initial firm resistance is 117.601, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 106.315 High Mar 27
• RES 3: 106.190 High Apr 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 105.604/815 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
• RES 1: 105.440 High Apr 18
• PRICE: 105.235 @ 05:32 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 105.165 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 104.695 Low Mar 10

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend and the contract traded lower Wednesday. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of support at 105.465, the Mar 31 low. 105.336, 61.8% of the Mar 9 - 20 rally, has been breached. The break opens 105.030, the Mar 15 low. On the upside, clearance of 106.190, Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.604, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: 102.88 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 102.37 High Apr 17
• RES 2: 101.60 High Apr 18
• RES 1: 100.60 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 99.96 @ Close Apr 19
• SUP 1: 99.73 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 99.55 Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 99.00 Round number support

A short-term bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and the contract traded lower Wednesday. Price has recently breached support at 102.74, the Mar 20 low and bear trigger. The extension lower has also resulted in a move through the 100.00 handle. A continuation of the downleg would open 99.55, the Mar 8 low ahead of 99.20, the Feb 28 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 100.60, yesterday’s intraday high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 115.92/116.97 High Apr 12 / 6
• RES 2: 114.94 High Apr 13
• RES 1: 114.57 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 113.34 @ Close Apr 19
• SUP 1: 113.09 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.05 Low Mar 8

BTP futures remain in a bear cycle. The contract has recently breached support at 114.04, the Mar 31 low, strengthening a bearish theme. Attention is on 112.89, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 114.57, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is far off at 117.17, the Mar 24 high. A break above the 20-day EMA would highlight a potential bullish reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4354.00 High Apr 18
• PRICE: 4340.00 @ 06:20 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 4309.00 Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 4250.00 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4178.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures are consolidating at recent highs and the uptrend remains intact. Recent gains have reinforced the bullish significance of the break of 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a former key resistance. The breach confirmed a resumption of the trend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 4381.50, the Jan 5 2022 high (cont). Initial firm support lies at 4250.00, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 4205.50 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 4200.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 4165.75 @ 06:47 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 4148.00/4119.30 Low Apr 17 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4077.86 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3980.75 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 3937.00 Low Mar 24

The trend outlook in S&P E-minis remains bullish and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Attention is on the 4200.00 handle where a break would open 4205.50, the Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a key medium-term resistance. Firm support lies at 4077,86 the 50-day EMA. Initial support to watch lies at 4119.30, the 20-day EMA. Pullbacks would be considered corrective.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Trades Through Short-Term Support

• RES 4: $90.46 - High Nov 15 2022
• RES 3: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $88.35 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $87.49 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $82.28 @ 06:56 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: $82.08 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $79.95 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $77.18 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: $74.39 - Low Mar 27

Brent futures are trading below recent highs and the contract has weakened this week. This has resulted in a break of support at $83.50, the Apr 3 low, and price has also breached the 20-day EMA, at $83.02. The break lower signals scope for a test of the 50-day EMA that intersects at $82.08 and this level marks a key short-term support. Key resistance has been defined at $87.49, the Apr 12 high. A break would resume the recent bull run.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Correction Lower Extends

• RES 4: $89.23 - High Aug 25 2022
• RES 3: $87.48 - High Nov 7 2022
• RES 2: $85.01 - High Nov 14
• RES 1: $83.53 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $78.21 @ 06:34 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: $77.42 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $75.72 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $72.19 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $69.13 - Low Mar 27

WTI futures are trading lower this week. This has resulted in a breach of support at $79.00, the Apr 3 low and the gap high on the daily chart. A continuation lower would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards the 50-day EMA at $77.42. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $83.53, the Apr 12 high. A break of this level is required to resume the recent uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Trades Through Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 1: $2015.1/2048.7 - High Apr 17 / High Apr 13 and bull trigger
• PRICE: $1996.7 @ 07:12 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: $1969.3/49.7 - Low Apr 19 / 3
• SUP 2: $1938.5 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1900.0 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish, however, the yellow metal has entered a short-term corrective cycle and traded lower Wednesday. Price has breached initial firm support at $1985.5, the 20-day EMA, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. This has opened $1949.7, Apr 3 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $2048.7, the Apr 5 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

SILVER TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $26.088 - High Apr 14
• PRICE: $25.207 @ 08:08 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: $24.476 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.458 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.828 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $22.157 - Low Mar 21

Silver remains in an uptrend and the recent pullback is considered corrective. The break - on Apr 4 - of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started early September 2022. The focus is on $26.222 next, the Apr 18 2022 high. On the downside, a key support to watch is seen at $24.476, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper (corrective) pullback.