MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Rally Strengthens Reversal

Price Signal Summary – Gold Rally Strengthens Reversal

• S&P e-minis found resistance last week at 4430.50 (Oct 12 high). The pullback means that - for now - resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4426.42, remains intact. A clear breach of this average is required to strengthen bullish conditions and this would open 4492.88. A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and last week’s reversal from 4256.00, the Oct 12 high, signals the end of the recent corrective cycle. Note too that resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4249.70, remains intact.
• GBPUSD trend conditions remain bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair remains below last week’s high and a continuation lower would refocus attention on support and the bear trigger at 1.2037, the Oct 4 low. USDJPY is unchanged. The trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent trend highs. Attention is on the 150.00 handle and the recent 150.16 high (Oct 3). A clear break of 150.00 would reinforce bullish conditions and open 150.40. The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish following the recent breach of support at 0.6331, the Sep 27 low. Attention is on 0.6286, the Oct 3 / 13 low. A clear break of this support, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6215.
• Gold traded sharply higher last Friday, clearing both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The rally strengthens the recent reversal and exposes the next key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high. WTI futures traded higher Friday and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery has highlighted a key support at $81.50, the Oct 6 low. The medium-term trend condition remains bullish.
• Bund futures remain in a short-term uptrend and despite the latest pullback, are still trading closer to their recent highs. Attention is on resistance at the 50-dma of 130.18. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and pave the way for a climb towards 131.33. Gilt futures faced resistance last Thursday and 95.66, the Oct 12 high, has been defined as a key short-term hurdle for bulls. The contract traded lower Monday, starting the week on a bearish note. Support to watch lies at 93.04, the Oct 10 low.

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.0769 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 1.0737 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 1.0692 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0640 High Oct 11
• PRICE: 1.0548 @ 05:47 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 1.0448 Low Oct 03 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0339 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0291 Low Nov 30 2022

EURUSD trend conditions remain bearish. The reversal lower from last Thursday’s high suggests the end of the recent corrective cycle and the pair is trading below the 20-day EMA - at 1.0587. Attention is on 1.0448, the Oct 3 low and a bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.0406, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, clearance of 1.0640, the Oct 12 high, would instead signal scope for a stronger correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.2506 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 1.2444 200-dma
• RES 2: 1.2444 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2337 High Oct 11 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2196 @ 06:00 Oct 17
• SUP 1: 1.2037 Low Oct 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2028 Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1964 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

GBPUSD trend conditions remain bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair remains below last week’s high and a continuation lower would refocus attention on support and the bear trigger at 1.2037, the Oct 4 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.1964, a Fibonacci projection. For bulls, a break of 1.2337, the Oct 11 high, would signal scope for a stronger corrective phase.

EURGBP TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8736 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 1: 0.8706 High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8647 @ 06:18 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 0.8625/16 50-day EMA / Low Oct 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8558 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 06

EURGBP is unchanged. Trend conditions remain bullish and the recent move lower appears to be a shallow correction. Support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8625, remains intact for now. The cross needs to confirm a clear break of this average to suggest scope for a deeper pullback near-term. For now, attention is on the bull trigger at 0.8706, the Sep 26 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 151.95 High Oct 21 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 151.09 2.764 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 150.40 2.618 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 1: 150.16 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 149.60 @ 06:51 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 148.81/147.43 20-day EMA / Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: 147.13 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 145.91 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 144.45 Low Sep 1

USDJPY is unchanged. The trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent trend highs. Attention is on the 150.00 handle and the recent 150.16 high (Oct 3). A clear break of 150.00 would reinforce bullish conditions and open 150.40, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, clearance of 147.43, the Oct 3 low, would be a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 3: 159.76 High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 158.65 High Sep 13
• RES 1: 158.61 High Oct 12
• PRICE: 157.75 @ 06:57 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 156.46/154.46 Low Oct 6 / Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 154.10 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 153.39 76.4% of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 bull run
• SUP 4: 151.42 Late July Low and Bear Trigger

EURJPY remains in consolidation mode for now, and is trading above support at 154.46, the Oct 3 low. Resistance to watch is 158.65, the Sep 13 high. For bulls, a break of 158.65, would highlight a range breakout and expose the key resistance and bull trigger at 159.76, the Aug 30 high. On the downside, a move below 154.46 would represent an important break and strengthen a bearish case. This would open 153.39, a Fibonacci retracement.

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6630 High Aug 2
• RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6445/6501 High Oct 11 / High Sep 29
• PRICE: 0.6352 @ 07:27 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 0.6286 Low Oct 3 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish following the recent breach of support at 0.6331, the Sep 27 low. Attention is on 0.6286, the Oct 3 / 13 low. A clear break of this support, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6215, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key trend resistance is unchanged at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Clearance of this level is required to highlight a reversal.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3928 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3862 High Mar 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 1: 1.3786 High Oct 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3627 @ 07:52 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 1.3569 Low Oct 10
• SUP 2: 1.3542 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

The USDCAD trend outlook remains bullish and for now, the pair remains above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The 50-day average intersects at 1.3542 and marks a key short-term support. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper correction. Sights are on resistance at 1.3786, the Oct 5 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.3862, the Mar 10 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 131.49 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 131.33 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 2: 130.43 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 1: 130.18 50-dma
• PRICE: 128.88 @ 05:17 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 128.61 Oct 10 low
• SUP 2: 127.93 Low Oct 9
• SUP 3: 127.31 Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger

Bund futures remain in a short-term uptrend and despite the latest pullback, are still trading closer to their recent highs. Attention is on resistance at the 50-dma of 130.18. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and pave the way for a climb towards 131.33, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial support to watch lies at 128.61, the Oct 10 low. A break would signal a potential top. Note that recent gains are considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 116.966 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
• RES 3: 116.740 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 116.567 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
• RES 1: 116.500 High Oct 10 and the short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 115.900 @ 05:23 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 115.750 Low Oct 9
• SUP 2: 115.400 Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: 115.070 Low Oct 4
• SUP 4: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures have pulled back from recent highs but still remain closer to the October peak. Attention is on resistance at 116.500, the Oct 10 high, where a break would strengthen short-term bullish conditions and pave the way for a stronger recovery. This would expose 116.567 and 116.966, Fibonacci retracement points. Support to watch lies at 115.570, the Oct 9 low. A break would highlight a potential top.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 105.560 High Sep 1
• RES 3: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 1: 105.190/105.320 High Oct 12 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 105.015 @ 05:41 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 104.985 Low Oct 10
• SUP 2: 104.905 Low Oct 4 r
• SUP 3: 104.765 Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing

Schatz futures continue to trade below resistance at 105.320, the Oct 10 high and a short-term bull trigger. The move below support at 105.035, the Oct 10 low, strengthens a bearish theme and paves the way for weakness towards support at 104.905, the Oct 4 low. Further out, the bear trigger lies at 104.765, the Sep 21 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Initial resistance is at 105.190, the Oct 12 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Starts The Week On A Bearish Note

• RES 4: 96.24 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 96.05 High Sep 25
• RES 2: 95.66 High Oct 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 94.28 High Oct 16
• PRICE:93.60 @ Close Oct 16
• SUP 1: 93.04 Low Oct 10
• SUP 2: 92.48 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - 12 rally
• SUP 3: 91.90 Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and key support

Gilt futures faced resistance last Thursday and 95.66, the Oct 12 high, has been defined as a key short-term hurdle for bulls. The contract traded lower Monday, starting the week on a bearish note. Support to watch lies at 93.04, the Oct 10 low. A breach would highlight a stronger reversal and open key support and the bear trigger that lies at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. For bulls, a clearance of 95.66 would instead confirm a resumption of the recent rally.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Watching Resistance Around The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 113.69 76.4% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 112.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 111.59 50.0% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 111.17 High Oct 12
• PRICE: 109.79 @ Close Oct 16
• SUP 1: 108.95/107.62 Low Oct 10 / 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

Despite the latest pullback, BTP futures are still trading closer to their recent highs and are holding on to the bulk of the gains posted across last week. Short-term gains are considered corrective for now, but continued strength north of the 20-day EMA at 110.18, would prove constructive for bulls. To resume the downtrend, prices need to slip below 107.62, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 4388.00 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
• RES 3: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 2: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4249.70/4256.00 50-day EMA / High Oct 12
• PRICE: 4166.00 @ 06:37 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 4082.00 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4055.40 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number

A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and last week’s reversal from 4256.00, the Oct 12 high, signals the end of the recent corrective cycle. Note too that resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4249.70, remains intact. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a stronger correction. The bear trigger lies at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4566.00 High Sep 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4514.50 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 4492.88 Trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high
• RES 1: 4426.42/4430.50 50+-day EMA / High Oct 12
• PRICE: 4397.75 @ 07:13 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 4299.50/4235.50 Low Oct 10 / Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4194.75 Low May 24
• SUP 3: 4166.25 1.50 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4134.00 Low May 4

S&P e-minis found resistance last week at 4430.50 (Oct 12 high). The pullback means that - for now - resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4426.42, remains intact. A clear breach of this average is required to strengthen bullish conditions and this would open 4492.88, trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high. On the downside, a deeper pullback would refocus attention on 4235.50, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z3) Bullish Theme

• RES 4: $99.73 - 1.236 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 3: $96.22 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $95.35 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $91.56 - High Oct 3
• PRICE: $89.66 @ 06:51 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: $87.48/83.44 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $82.80 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $81.33 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $79.84 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

Brent futures rallied sharply higher last Friday and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery has highlighted a key support at $83.44, Oct 6 low. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and an extension higher would expose the bull trigger at $95.35, Sep 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. For bears, a break of $83.44, would highlight potential for a stronger bear cycle.

WTI TECHS: (X3) Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $99.42 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: $97.08 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $95.03 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $89.59 - High Oct 4
• PRICE: $86.56 @ 07:02 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: $81.50 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 2: $79.57 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $77.32 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $75.92 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

WTI futures traded higher Friday and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery has highlighted a key support at $81.50, the Oct 6 low. The medium-term trend condition remains bullish and an extension higher would expose the bull trigger at $95.03, the Sep 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. For bears, a move through $81.50, would instead highlight potential for a stronger bear cycle.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Following Recent Sharp Rally

• RES 4: $1987.5 - High Jul 20
• RES 3: $1965.5 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Oct 6 bear leg
• RES 2: $1953.0 - High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $1932.9 - High Oct 13 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $1917.2 @ 07:06 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: $1899.1 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: $1844.3 - Low Oct 9
• SUP 4: $1810.5 - Low Oct 6 and a key support

Gold traded sharply higher last Friday, clearing both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The rally strengthens the recent reversal and exposes the next key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bullish theme. Note that moving average studies still highlight a broader bear trend condition, however, prices would need to trade below Friday's low of $1868.8 to signal a reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Phase

• RES 4: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 3: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 2: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $22.789 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $22.504 @ 07:54 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: $21.573/20.689 - Low Oct 9 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.585 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - May ‘23 upleg

Silver trend conditions are bearish, however, for now a corrective cycle is in play. The metal traded through the 20-day EMA on Friday, but has found resistance at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at $22.782 and a clear breach of this EMA is required to strengthen bullish conditions. This would open $23.774, the Sep 22 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a break of $20.689, the Oct 3 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.