MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold S/T Outlook Remains Weak

Price Signal Summary – Gold S/T Outlook Remains Weak

• The E-mini S&P contract traded to a high of 4634.50 Thursday before reversing. This highlights a possible short-term bearish signal. Price has found resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 13 low - the channel top is at 4643.65 today. Eurostoxx 50 futures rallied late last week. This resulted in a break of key resistance at 4447.00, the Jul 3 high and a bull trigger. The rally has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and marked the end of a broad sideways move that started May 19.
• GBPUSD gains last week stalled at Thursday’s high resulting in a strong sell-off. The move down highlights the fact that a bear cycle is still in play. Support at 1.2798 the Jul 24 low, has been breached. This signals scope for an extension lower towards the 50-day EMA at 1.2742. A strong rally on Friday in USDJPY and today’s gains, cancels a recent bearish threat and instead has strengthened a short-term bullish condition. The pair is approaching a key short-term resistance at 141.96, the Jul 21 high. AUDUSD traded sharply lower Friday, extending the reversal from last Thursday’s 0.6821 high. The move down reinforces a bearish theme and note that the pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs.
• Gold traded sharply lower last Thursday. The move down resulted in a break of support at the 50-day EMA - at $1951.4. A continuation lower would threaten the recent bullish theme and instead expose support at $1924.5, the Jul 11 low. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact - last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break above $77.15, the Jul 13 high signals scope for an extension towards the next key resistance at $81.44, the high on Apr 12 / 13.
• Bund futures traded in a volatile manner late last week and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has breached 132.23, 61.8% of the Jul 10 - 19 rally. This undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation lower. Gilt futures traded lower late last week and breached first support at 96.11, the Jul 21 low. This highlights a bearish threat and note that the 20-day EMA, at 95.67, has also been breached. This signals scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards 94.58, the Jul 17 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Tests Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 1.1313 High Feb 24 2022
• RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.1150/1229 High Jul 27 / 20
• RES 1: 1.1051 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1010 @ 05:42 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 1.0964/44 Trendline support from May 31 low / Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 1.0867 Low Jul 7
• SUP 3: 1.0834 Low Jul 6 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0804 Low Jun 15

EURUSD maintains a softer tone following last week’s move lower and Thursday’s sharp sell-off. The move down reinforces a short-term bearish theme. The pair has pierced support at the 50-day EMA at 1.0974 and a trendline support at 1.0964, drawn from the May 31 low. A clear break of both levels would strengthen a bearish threat and open 1.0867, the Jul 7 low. First key resistance is at last Thursday’s 1.1150 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3272 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 8 low
• RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 1: 1.2887/2996 High Jul 28 / 27 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2847 @ 06:04 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 1.2742 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2720 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 8 low
• SUP 3: 1.2674 Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: 1.2591 Low Jun 29

GBPUSD gains last week stalled at Thursday’s high resulting in a strong sell-off. The move down highlights the fact that a bear cycle is still in play. Support at 1.2798 the Jul 24 low, has been breached. This signals scope for an extension lower towards the 50-day EMA at 1.2742. Note that the base of a bull channel, drawn from the Mar 8 low and a key support, lies at 1.2720 today. First key resistance is at 1.2996, last Thursday’s high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23 and a congestion high
• RES 2: 0.8687/8701 100-dma / High May 23
• RES 1: 0.8637 High Jul 25
• PRICE: 0.8568 @ 06:22 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 0.8544 Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: 0.8523 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022

EURGBP is consolidating in a tight range. Recent bearish price action threatens the bull theme - the latest move lower resulted in a break of both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs. This has exposed 0.8504, the Jul 11 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8637, the Jul 25 high. Clearance of the 100-dma of 0.8687 and congestion resistance at 0.8719, the May 23 high, would reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Return

• RES 4: 144.20 High Jul 7
• RES 3: 143.22 76.4% retracement of the Jun 30 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 2: 142.98 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 low
• RES 1: 141.96 High Jul 21
• PRICE: 141.90 @ 06:39 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 140.70/138.07 Intraday low / Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 137.25 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 3: 136.31 Low May 17
• SUP 4: 135.53 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Jun bull leg

A strong rally on Friday in USDJPY and today’s gains, cancels a recent bearish threat and instead has strengthened a short-term bullish condition. The pair is approaching a key short-term resistance at 141.96, the Jul 21 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started on Jul 14 and open 142.98, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 26 low. First key support has been defined at 138.07, the Jul 28 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Rally

• RES 4: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 158.05 High Jul 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 156.89 High Jul 25
• PRICE: 156.16 @ 07:04 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 153.83/151.42 50-day EMA / Low Jul 28 and key support
• SUP 2: 150.92 Low Jun 14
• SUP 3: 150.16 38.2% retracement of the Jan 3 - Jul 21 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 149.59 Low Jun 8

EURJPY reversed sharply higher Friday from its 151.42 intraday low. The rally cancels a recent bearish threat and instead signals the end of a corrective cycle. A continuation higher would expose 158.05, Jul 21 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the M/T uptrend and open 158.72, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at 151.42.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Price Activity

• RES 4: 0.6847 High Jul 20
• RES 3: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 0.6737 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6714 High Jul 28
• PRICE: 0.6691 @ 08:06 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 0.6619 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 0.6596 Low Jun 29 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
• SUP 4: 0.6485 Low Jun 1

AUDUSD traded sharply lower Friday, extending the reversal from last Thursday’s 0.6821 high. The move down reinforces a bearish theme and note that the pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for weakness towards the next key support at 0.6596, the Jun 29 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6821, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

USDCAD TECHS: Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3427 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.3387 High Jul 7 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3286 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3249 High Jul 28
• PRICE: 1.3243 @ 08:09 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3032 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull leg

USDCAD is slightly firmer and for now, remains above key support at 1.3093, the Jul 14 low. Moving average studies still highlight a dominant downtrend. A break of 1.3093 would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bear cycle. This would open 1.3084 and 1.3032, Fibonacci projection points. On the upside, clearance of the 50-day EMA, at 1.3286, is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 135.61 High Jun 2
• RES 3: 135.00 High Jun 27 and key resistance
• RES 2: 134.88 High Jul 19
• RES 1: 133.09/134.01 20-day EMA / High Jul 24
• PRICE: 132.61 @ 05:09 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 131.81 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 131.61 76.4% retracement of the Jul 10 - 19 rally
• SUP 3: 130.99 Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 130.60 Low Jul 10 and a key support

Bund futures traded in a volatile manner late last week and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has breached 132.23, 61.8% of the Jul 10 - 19 rally. This undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation lower. The focus is on 131.61, the 76.4% retracement. Further out, key support is at 130.60, the Jul 10 low. Initial firm resistance is at 134.01, the Jul 24 high. A break would be bullish.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Breaches Support

• RES 4: 116.990 High Jun 12 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 116.600 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.200 High Jul 24 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 115.670 @ 05:15 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 115.333/320 61.8% of the Jul 6 - 19 rally / Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 115.230 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 115.034 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 19 rally
• SUP 4: 114.730 Low Jul 12

Bobl futures traded through support at 115.540 on Friday, the Jul 21 / 26 low, before recovering. The break lower undermines the recent bullish theme and highlights potential for a continuation lower near-term. This has exposed 115.333, a Fibonacci retracement point and the next important support. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, key near-term resistance has been defined at 116.200, the Jul 24 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 105.378 100-dma (cont)
• RES 3: 105.223 50% retracement June-July downleg
• RES 2: 105.185 High Jul 19 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.090 High Jul 24 / 27 / 28
• PRICE: 104.997 @ 5:42 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 104.805 Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.335 Low Mar 9 (cont) and a major support

Schatz futures remain in a short-term uptrend for now, with immediate support at 104.805, the Jul 17 low, still intact. A resumption of gains and a breach of 105.185, the Jul 19 high, would highlight a continuation of the bull cycle and open 105.223 and 105.376, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, a clear break of 104.805 would instead expose key support and the bear trigger at 104.570, the Jul 6 low.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 97.91 38.2% retracement of the Mar-Jul downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 96.81/97.84 High Jul 27 / 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 96.07 High Jul 28
• PRICE: 95.94 @ Close Jul 28
• SUP 1: 95.11 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 94.96 50.0% retracement of the Jul 7 - 19 rally
• SUP 3: 94.58 Low Jul 17 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.20 Low Jul 13

Gilt futures traded lower late last week and breached first support at 96.11, the Jul 21 low. This highlights a bearish threat and note that the 20-day EMA, at 95.67, has also been breached. This signals scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards 94.58, the Jul 17 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 97.84, the high on Jul 19. A break is required to resume the uptrend. Initial firm resistance is at 96.81, the Jul 27 high.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Support Is Holding - For Now

• RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.86/117.48 High Jul 24 / 19
• PRICE: 115.95 @ Close Jul 28
• SUP 1: 115.09 Low Jul 14 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: 114.26 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 112.48 Low May 29

BTP futures remain below 117.48, the Jul 19 high. Short-term bullish conditions are intact - for now - and the recent move lower is considered corrective. Attention is on the key hurdle at 117.60, the Jun 26 high. A resumption of gains and a break of this resistance would strengthen a bullish theme and open 118.18, the Feb 2 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch is 115.09, the Jul 14 low. A break would highlight a possible reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Bullish Price Action

• RES 4: 4546.00 1.00 proj of the Jul 7 - 13 - 26 price swing
• RES 3: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007
• RES 2: 4501.60 1.618 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4498.00 High Jul 28
• PRICE: 4479.00 @ 06:32 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 4396.50 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4363.90/4331.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 4282.00 Low Jul 11
• SUP 4: 4220.00 Low Jul 7 and a reversal trigger

Eurostoxx 50 futures rallied late last week. This resulted in a break of key resistance at 4447.00, the Jul 3 high and a bull trigger. The rally has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and marked the end of a broad sideways move that started May 19. Attention is on 4501.60 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 4331.00, the Jul 26 low. A break of this level would be a bearish development.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Channel Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4711.68 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4670.25 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - 20 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4639.79 1.764 proj of the Jun 26 - 20 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4634.50/43.65 High Jul 27 / Bull channel top
• PRICE: 4605.50 @ 07:52 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 4534.05 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4470.00 Low Jul 12
• SUP 3: 4432.24 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4397.06 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low

The E-mini S&P contract traded to a high of 4634.50 Thursday before reversing. This highlights a possible short-term bearish signal. Price has found resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 13 low - the channel top is at 4643.65 today. A continuation lower would expose the 20-day EMA - at 4534.05 and a break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. Clearance of the channel top is required to resume the uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $86.18 - High Jan 23
• RES 3: $85.60 - High Jan 27
• RES 2: $84.79 - High Apr 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $84.50 - High Jul 28
• PRICE: $84.07 @ 07:04 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: $80.15/78.10 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 2: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: $72.04 - Low Jun 28
• SUP 4: $71.21 - Low My 31

Brent futures traded higher last week. The contract remains in an uptrend and the latest rally confirmed a resumption of the trend. Note that moving average studies are in bull-mode position highlighting a positive cycle. The contract has cleared all major short-term resistance points and sights are on $84.79, the Apr 12 high. Initial key short-term support has been defined at $78.10, the Jul 18 low.

WTI TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $83.59 - High Jul 11 2022
• RES 3: $81.75 - High Jan 23
• RES 2: $81.44 - High Apr 12 and key resistance
• RES 1: $80.71- High Jul 28
• PRICE: $80.31 @ 07:12 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: $76.10/73.78 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: $69.82/66.98 - Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 12 and key support
• SUP 3: $64.22 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact - last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break above $77.15, the Jul 13 high signals scope for an extension towards the next key resistance at $81.44, the high on Apr 12 / 13. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current positive conditions. Key short-term support has been defined at $73.78, the Jul 17 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $2022.9 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 3: $2002.8 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $1998.1 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 1: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1956.3 @ 07:18 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: $1942.7 - Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: $1924.5 - Low Jul 11
• SUP 3: $1902.8/1893.1 - Low Jul 6 / Jun 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Gold traded sharply lower last Thursday. The move down resulted in a break of support at the 50-day EMA - at $1951.4. A continuation lower would threaten the recent bullish theme and instead expose support at $1924.5, the Jul 11 low. Clearance of this level would expose key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. A break of this hurdle is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $25.920 - High May 10
• RES 1: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• PRICE: $24.247 @ 08:15 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: $24.044 - Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: $23.920 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.109 - Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: $22.527 - Low Jul 6

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and recent weakness is considered corrective. However, support at $23.920, the 50-day EMA, appears exposed following the sell-off last Thursday. A clear break of the EMA would undermine a bullish outlook. Key resistance is at $25.267, the Jul 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Jun 23, and open $26.135, the May 5 high.