MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Trend Condition Remains Bullish

Price Signal Summary – Gold Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• S&P E-Minis traded higher last week. The contract has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA and this has strengthened the short-term bullish condition. Price has also traded above the 4000.00 handle to open 4043.00 next, the Dec 15 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures bullish conditions remain intact and the contract is trading higher again today. Futures have recently cleared resistance at 4043.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger.
• EURUSD trend conditions remain bullish and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of 1.0787, the May 30 2022 high and a key resistance. The breach reinforces the bullish theme. EURGBP short-term conditions remain bullish. The move higher last week confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 0.8907, a Fibonacci retracement point. EURJPY traded sharply lower Friday and the cross remains weak. This marks an extension of the reversal last week from above the 50-day EMA, at 142.32. The move lower leaves key resistance at 142.94, the Dec 28 high, intact.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal has traded to a fresh trend high today. This confirms an extension on the current uptrend and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures traded higher last week and a short-term bull theme remains intact. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of resistance at $81.50, the Jan 3 high and a bull trigger.
• Bund futures remain in an uptrend following last week’s gains and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has recently traded through the 20-day EMA and short-term signals suggest scope for a continuation higher near-term. Gilt futures resumed their uptrend last week, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The contract has cleared resistance at 102.78, the Jan 6 high. The break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.1022 3.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Oct 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.0954 High Apr 11, 2022
• RES 2: 1.0913 2.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Oct 13 price swing
• RES 1: 1.0874 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.0858 @ 05:40 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 1.0665 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0486/84 50-day EMA / Low Jan 6
• SUP 3: 1.0422 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 1.0394 Low Dec 1

EURUSD trend conditions remain bullish and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of 1.0787, the May 30 2022 high and a key resistance. The breach reinforces the bullish theme. Note too that moving average studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop. The climb opens 1.0913 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support has been defined at 1.0484, the Jan 6 low. Initial firm support lies at 1.0665, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2446 High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2303 76.4% retracement of the Dec 14 - Jan 6 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2289 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2262 @ 05:58 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 1.2083 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 1.1999/78 50-day EMA / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1779 Low Nov 21

GBPUSD has started the week on a firmer note and the pair has traded higher today. This reinforces current bullish conditions. Price has breached resistance at 1.2242, the Dec 19 high and a continuation higher would pave the way for a climb towards 1.2303, a Fibonacci retracement. Further out, this would expose 1.2446, the Dec 14 high and a key resistance. Initial support is seen at 1.2083, the Jan 9 low. Key support lies at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8897 High Jan 13
• PRICE: 0.8860 @ 06:16 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 0.8807/8769 20-day EMA / Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 0.8750 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
• SUP 4: 0.8646 High Dec 8

EURGBP short-term conditions remain bullish. The move higher last week confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 0.8907, a Fibonacci retracement point. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop, reinforcing the current trend direction. Initial firm support is seen at 0.8750, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would be bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Price Sequence Extends

• RES 4: 136.64 200-dma
• RES 3: 134.77/81 High Jan 6 / 23.6% Oct - Jan downleg
• RES 2: 131.31/132.46 Low Jan 9 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.52 Low Jan 3 and a recent breakout point
• PRICE: 127.87 @ 06:30 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 127.23 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 125.49 1.50 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing

The downtrend in USDJPY remains intact and last week’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the trend - support at 129.52, Jan 3 low, has been breached. MA studies remain in a bear mode condition and a bearish price sequence highlights a clear downtrend. Furthermore, the 50- and 200-dmas have crossed, highlighting a potential bearish death cross. The focus is on 126.81, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 134.77, the Jan 6 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 143.16 61.8% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 142.86/94 High Jan 11 / High Dec 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 140.40/141.24 High Jan 13 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 138.81 @ 07:06 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 138.01 Low Jan 13
• SUP 2: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 136.02 Low Aug 25

EURJPY traded sharply lower Friday and the cross remains weak. This marks an extension of the reversal last week from above the 50-day EMA, at 142.32. The move lower leaves key resistance at 142.94, the Dec 28 high, intact. Attention is on 137.39, the Jan 3 low, where a break would resume the 2-month downtrend and open 137.03, the Aug 29 low. Clearance of 142.94 is required to signal a reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Up

• RES 4: 0.7200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 0.7137 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.7059 2.236 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 1: 0.7019 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6977 @ 07:21 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 0.6860 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 0.6828 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6745 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3 and key support

AUDUSD has traded higher today and retains a bullish theme. The pair has cleared 0.6893, the Dec 13 high and this has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 13. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode position. The focus is on 0.7059 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support lies at 0.6688, Jan 3 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3511 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3388 @ 07:58 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 1.3322 Low Jan 13
• SUP 2: 1.3317 Low Nov 24 / 25
• SUP 3: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

The short-term outlook in USDCAD remains bearish and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The pair has breached a key support at the 1.3385 level - the Dec 5 low. This break strengthens bearish conditions and opens 1.3317, the Nov 24 / 25 low. The bear trigger lies at 1.3226, the Nov 15 low. On the upside, key resistance is far-off at 1.3705, the Dec 16 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3511, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Bullish Conditions Remain Intact

• RES 4: 141.06 High Dec 14
• RES 3: 140.48 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 139.09 High Jan 12
• PRICE: 138.19 @ 05:15 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 136.87 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 136.04/135.74 Low Jan 10 / 6
• SUP 3: 135.08 Low Jan 4 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 133.79 Low Jan 3

Bund futures remain in an uptrend following last week’s gains and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has recently traded through the 20-day EMA and short-term signals suggest scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 138.97, 61.8% of the Dec 7 - Jan 3 bear leg. This level has been pierced, a clear break would open the 140.00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support is at 136.04, the Jan 10 low.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 3: 118.610 Low Dec 12
• RES 2: 118.427 61.8% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 1: 118.250 High Jan 12
• PRICE: 117.780 @ 05:19 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 117.345 20-Day EMA
• SUP 2: 116.950/740 Low Jan 10 / 6
• SUP 3: 116.540 Low Jan 4 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 116.030 Low Jan 3

Bobl futures remain in an uptrend and the contract traded higher last week, reinforcing bullish conditions. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and the break strengthens the current bull cycle, signalling potential for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is on 118.427 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at 116.950, the Jan 10 low. A break of this level would signal a reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Maintains A Short-Term Bullish Tone

• RES 4: 106.296 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.118 50.0% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 2: 106.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 105.945 High Jan 13
• PRICE: 105.795 @ 05:13 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 105.625/560 Low Jan 10 / 6
• SUP 2: 105..480 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 105.360 Low Jan 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.345 2.618 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing

Schatz futures maintain a positive short-term tone and the contract traded higher last week. Price has traded above the 20-day EMA and this reinforces short-term bullish conditions. The focus is on 105.939, 38.2% of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg. It has been tested, a clear break would open the 106.000 handle. On the downside, the firm support to watch lies at 105.625, the Jan 10 low. A break would signal a reversal.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 106.18 High Dec 12
• RES 3: 106.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 105.20 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg
• RES 1: 104.94 High Jan 13
• PRICE: 104.21 @ Close Jan 13
• SUP 1: 103.64/102.78 Low Jan 12 / High Jan 6
• SUP 2: 102.19/101.40 Low Jan 11 / 10
• SUP 3: 99.97 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 99.18 Low Dec 28 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures resumed their uptrend last week, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The contract has cleared resistance at 102.78, the Jan 6 high. The break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention is on 105.20, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 106.00. Firm support has been defined at 101.40, Oct 10 low.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 118.96 High Dec 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 117.93 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 117.12 High Dec 14
• RES 1: 116.57 High Jan 12
• PRICE: 115.42 @ Close Jan 13
• SUP 1: 114.94/113.50 Low Jan 12 / Low Jan 11
• SUP 2: 111.59/110.77 Low Jan 6 / Low Jan 4
• SUP 3: 109.29 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 108.36 Low Dec 30 low and bear trigger

The current bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the contract traded higher last week. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and last week’s rally resulted in a break of the 114.00 and 116.00 handles. The acceleration higher signals scope for a climb towards 117.93, the Dec 13 high. On the downside, a key support lies at 111.59, the Jan 6 low. Initial firm support is seen at 113.75, the Jan 9 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Heading North

• RES 4: 4269.50 2.236 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4230.50 High Feb 10, 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4215.00 2.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 1: 4191.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4180.00 @ 05:55 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 4043.00 High Dec 13
• SUP 2: 3981.10/3882.80 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3697.00 Low Nov 10

EUROSTOXX 50 futures bullish conditions remain intact and the contract is trading higher again today. Futures have recently cleared resistance at 4043.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger. The break represents a key short-term positive development and paves the way for gains towards 4215.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reinforcing the bull theme. Initial firm is at 3981.10.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Short-Term Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 4194.25 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 4180.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4090.75 High Dec 14
• RES 1: 4043.00 High Dec 15
• PRICE: 4015.50 @ 07:01 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 3891.50 Low Jan 10
• SUP 2: 3788.50/78.45 Low Dec 22 / 61.8% of Oct 13-Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 3: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3670.00 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend

S&P E-Minis traded higher last week. The contract has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA and this has strengthened the short-term bullish condition. Price has also traded above the 4000.00 handle to open 4043.00 next, the Dec 15 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 3788.50, the Dec 22 low. A reversal lower and a break of this support would resume bearish activity.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H3) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $90.49 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $89.18 - High Dec 1
• RES 2: $87.00 - High Jan 3 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $85.59 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $84.63 @ 06:41 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: $82.23/77.61 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $75.64 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $73.73 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures maintain a short-term bullish tone and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $87.00, the Jan 3 high where a break is required to strengthen bullish conditions. The broader trend direction remains down and a reversal lower would instead highlight a resumption of the trend and this would expose the bear trigger at $75.64, the Dec 9 low.

WTI TECHS: (G3) Corrective Bounce Still In Play

• RES 4: $84.10 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $83.27 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $81.50 - High Jan 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $80.22 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $79.22 @ 07:04 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: $76.96/72.46 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $70.31 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $68.19 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $65.47 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures traded higher last week and a short-term bull theme remains intact. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of resistance at $81.50, the Jan 3 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle is required to strengthen a bullish theme. The broader trend outlook still appears bearish. A reversal lower would expose the bear trigger that has been defined at $70.31, the Dec 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $1998.4 - High Apr 18, 2022
• RES 3: $1982.0 - High Apr 19, 2022
• RES 2: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: $1934.4 - High Apr 25, 2022
• PRICE: $1915.4 @ 07:00 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: $1874.4/43.5 - Low Jan 12 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal has traded to a fresh trend high today. This confirms an extension on the current uptrend and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position - reflecting the uptrend. The focus is on $1934.4 next, the Apr 25, 2022 high. Support to watch lies at $1843.5, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.548 - High Jan 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $24.220 @ 08:05 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: $22.629 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

The trend condition in Silver remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition and fresh trend highs in December reinforce the positive theme. Furthermore, the move higher maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.