MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Monday Weakness Reinforces Bearish Equity Theme

Price Signal Summary - Monday weakness reinforces bearish equity theme

• The short-term condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and Monday’s move lower reinforces this theme. Price last week cleared key short-term support at 3960.75, the Mar 2 low to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that has been in place since the Feb 2 reversal. Eurostoxx 50 futures started the week on a bearish note with price trading lower Monday. This reinforces Friday’s breach of a key support at the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. The break highlights a reversal of the uptrend that has been in place since late September 2022.
• EURUSD traded higher Monday, extending last week’s recovery from 1.0525, the Mar 8 low. Resistance at 1.0694 has been cleared, the Mar 6 / 7 high. This has strengthened a short-term bull theme and opened 1.0779 next, a Fibonacci retracement. EURGBP is trading lower again today. The move lower undermines the recent bullish theme and instead, exposes key support at 0.8755, the Feb 28 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 0.8722, the Jan 19 low.The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The Mar 7 sell-off reinforces and strengthens a bearish theme. The break lower confirmed a bear flag formation on the daily chart and prices have breached a key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low.
• Gold rallied sharply higher last week and yesterday started the week on a firm note. Resistance at $1858.3, the Mar 6 high has been cleared. This signals scope for an extension towards $1923.2, a Fibonacci retracement point and a key near-term resistance. A sharp sell-off in WTI futures last week has defined a key resistance at $80.94, Feb 7 high. A break of this hurdle is required to reinstate a bullish theme that would open $82.89, the Jan 23 high and a key resistance.
• Bund futures rallied sharply higher Monday, extending Friday’s gains. The contract is through a number of important retracement points and has also cleared the 136.00 handle. Price has also pierced 136.80, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 2 downleg. Gilt futures rallied through a host of Fibonacci projections Monday, reinforcing a strong bull cycle with firm momentum. The rally paves the way for a climb towards 106.37 and 106.70 next, Fibonacci projection levels.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Short-Term Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.0839 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0779 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0749 High Mar 13
• PRICE: 1.0701 @ 05:22 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 1.0640 Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: 1.0574 Low Mar 10
• SUP 3: 1.0525 Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support

EUR/USD traded higher Monday, extending last week’s recovery from 1.0525, the Mar 8 low. Resistance at 1.0694 has been cleared, the Mar 6 / 7 high. This has strengthened a short-term bull theme and opened 1.0779 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Gains are considered corrective - for now. Support to watch is yesterday’s intraday low of 1.0640 where a break would signal a top. A move lower would refocus attention on 1.0525, the bear trigger.

GBPUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 1.2401 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 1.2296 76.4% retracement of the Jan 23 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2269 High Feb 14
• RES 1: 1.2202 61.8% retracement of the Jan 23 - Mar 8 bear leg
• PRICE: 1.2154 @ 05:52 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 1.2063/2029 50- and 20-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.1908 Low Mar10
• SUP 3: 1.1804 Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1747 2.0% 10-dma envelope

GBPUSD traded higher Monday and topped resistance at 1.2147, the Feb 21 high. The break reinforces the current bullish theme and signals scope for an extension towards 1.2269, the Feb 14 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 1.2029, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this level would be a bearish development and signal a top, potentially exposing the key support at 1.1804, the Mar 8 low and bear trigger.

EURGBP TECHS: Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 0.9066 High Sep 28
• RES 3: 0.8992 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8979 High Feb 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8852/8929 20-day EMA / High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 0.8793 @ 06:39 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 0.8782 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 0.8766/55 100-dma / Low Feb 28 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP is trading lower again today. The move lower undermines the recent bullish theme and instead, exposes key support at 0.8755, the Feb 28 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 0.8722, the Jan 19 low. Key resistance has been defined at 0.8925, the Mar 7 high, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish outlook. This would open 0.8979, the Feb 3 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 137.91 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 136.99 High NMar 10
• RES 2: 134.95 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 134.22 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 133.65 @ 06:09 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 132.29 Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: 131.31 61.8% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: 129.81 Low Feb 10
• SUP 4: 128.09 Low Feb 2

Last Friday’s move lower in USDJPY and Monday’s bearish extension, highlights potential for a deeper corrective pullback. The pair has traded below support at 134.22, the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish threat and exposes 131.31, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, the bull trigger and key resistance has been defined at 137.91, the Mar 8 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective

• RES 4: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 3: 146.73 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 145.80 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 144.39/145.10 High Mar 13 / 10
• PRICE: 142.82 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 141.37 Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: 140.14/11 Low Feb 13 / 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 139.56 Low Feb 10
• SUP 4: 139.06 Low Jan 20

The recent pullback in EURJPY appears to be a correction. Trend conditions remain bullish and recent gains have maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of the uptrend would open 145.80, a Fibonacci retracement and 146.73, the Dec 15 high. Key short-term support has been tested - the cross pierced 142.15 yesterday, the Feb 24 low. A clear breach of this level would expose the 140.00 handle.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6804 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6784 High Mar 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6739 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6665 @ 07:24 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 0.6547 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 2: 0.6500 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The Mar 7 sell-off reinforces and strengthens a bearish theme. The break lower confirmed a bear flag formation on the daily chart and prices have breached a key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6784, the Mar 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 1.3974/77 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Oct 13
• RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 1.3862 High Mar 10
• PRICE: 1.3729 @ 08:10 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 1.3678/3665 Low Mar 13 / High Feb 24
• SUP 2: 1.3629 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3541 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone despite the pullback from Friday’s high of 1.3862. The move appears to be a correction and this is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Last week’s rally strengthened the bullish theme. Price cleared the Dec 16 high of 1.3705 and has also traded above 1.3800. Scope is seen for gains towards 1.3977, the Oct 13 high. Initial support is seen at 1.3678, the Monday low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Impulsive Bull Run

• RES 4: 138.79 High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1138.40 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 138.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 137.24 High Mar 13
• PRICE: 135.74 @ 04:47 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 135.45 High Feb 14
• SUP 2: 134.61 38.2% retracement of the Mar 2 - 13 rally
• SUP 3: 133.80 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 13 rally
• SUP 4: 133.11 20-day EMA

Bund futures rallied sharply higher Monday, extending Friday’s gains. The contract is through a number of important retracement points and has also cleared the 136.00 handle. Price has also pierced 136.80, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 2 downleg. A clear break of this retracement would expose 138.00 and more importantly signal scope for a test of a key resistance at 138.79, the Feb 2 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Sharp Reversal

• RES 4: 119.580 High Dec 9 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 119.230 High Dec 15 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 118.880 High Jan 19 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 1: 118.730 High Mar 13
• PRICE: 117.850 @ 05:00 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 117.206 38.2% retracement of the Mar 6 - 13 rally
• SUP 2: 116.890 High Feb 24
• SUP 3: 116.264 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 13 rally
• SUP 4: 115.700 Low Mar 10

Bobl futures traded sharply higher Monday and in the process cleared a number of key short-term resistance points. The sharp reversal has exposed 118.880, the Jan 19 high on the continuation chart and a key near-term resistance. A break of this level would strengthen the current bullish theme and signal scope for gains above the 119.00 handle. On the downside, initial support is seen at 117.206, a Fibonacci retracement.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Reversal Higher Exposes Key Resistance

• RES 4: 106.570 High Dec 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 106.365 Low Dec 13 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 106.155 High Jan 18 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 1: 106.120 High Mar 13
• PRICE: 105.835 @ 05:28 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 105.701 23.6% retracement of the Mar 8 - 15 rally
• SUP 2: 105.442 38.2% retracement of the Mar 8 - 15 rally
• SUP 3: 105.232 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - 15 rally
• SUP 4: 105.017 20-day EMA

Schatz futures traded sharply higher Monday,extending Friday’s rally and confirming a reversal of the recent bear leg. The break higher exposes 106.155, the Jan 18 high on the continuation chart and a key near-term resistance. A break would strengthen the current bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support is seen around 105.442, a Fibonacci retracement point.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 107.07 5.50 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• RES 3: 106.70 5.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• RES 2: 106.37 5.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• RES 1: 106.20 High Mar 13
• PRICE: 104.87 @ Close Mar 13
• SUP 1: 104.55 23.6% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 2: 104.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 103.53 38.2% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 4: 102.40 Low Mar 13

Gilt futures rallied through a host of Fibonacci projections Monday, reinforcing a strong bull cycle with firm momentum. The rally paves the way for a climb towards 106.37 and 106.70 next, Fibonacci projection levels. On the downside, yesterday’s 102.40 low is the first key short-term support to watch. At this stage, a break of 102.40 is required to signal a reversal. This would potentially expose the late Feb lows.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 116.49 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 2 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 116.33 High Feb 9 (cont)
• RES 1: 115.88 High Mar 13
• PRICE: 114.83 @ Close Mar 13
• SUP 1: 113.55 Low MAr 13
• SUP 2: 113.02 High Mar 9 and a gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: 110.79 Low Mar 7
• SUP 4: 110.25 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger

BTP futures traded higher again Monday to extend the reversal from 110.25, the Mar 2 low. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of a key short-term resistance at 113.43, the Feb 24 high. The move strengthens current bullish conditions and a continuation higher would open resistance at 116.49, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 113.02, last Thursday’s high and a gap low on the daily chart.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Bull Channel Breakout

• RES 4: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 and a major resistance (cont)
• RES 3: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4328.00 High Mar 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4166.70/4238.20 50- and 20-day EMA values
• PRICE: 4107.00 @ 05:47 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 4071.0 Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: 4000.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3955.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 3916.20 38.2% retracement of the Sep 29 - Mar 6 bull phase

Eurostoxx 50 futures started the week on a bearish note with price trading lower Monday. This reinforces Friday’s breach of a key support at the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. The break highlights a reversal of the uptrend that has been in place since late September 2022. The 50-day EMA has been breached and this opens the 4000.00 handle next. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 4238.20, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4119.50 High Mar 6
• RES 1: 3971.50/4039.14 High Mar 13 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3903.25 @ 07:08 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 3839.25 Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: 3822.00 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 3: 3778.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3724.86 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Feb 2 bull cycle

The short-term condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and Monday’s move lower reinforces this theme. Price last week cleared key short-term support at 3960.75, the Mar 2 low to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that has been in place since the Feb 2 reversal. The move lower signals scope for an extension towards 3822.00 next, the Dec 22 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 4039.14, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Clears Support

• RES 4: $91.48 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $88.78 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $84.00/86.75 - High Mar 9 / 7 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $79.89 @ 06:57 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: $78.34 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: $77.76 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: $76.04 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $71.30 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 - Jan 23 price swing

Brent futures remain vulnerable and the contract traded sharply lower Monday. Price has pierced key support at $78.84, the Feb 6 low. A continuation lower and clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. The focus is on $77.76, Jan 5 low and $76.04, the Dec 12 low and key medium term support. A break of$76.04 would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Initial firm resistance is $84.00, the Mar 9 high.

WTI TECHS: (J3) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $86.05 - High Feb 14
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $82.89 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $78.06/80.94 - High Mar 9 / 7 and key resistance
• PRICE: $73.95 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: $72.30 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: $70.86 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $66.04 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

A sharp sell-off in WTI futures last week has defined a key resistance at $80.94, Feb 7 high. A break of this hurdle is required to reinstate a bullish theme that would open $82.89, the Jan 23 high and a key resistance. The contract remains vulnerable and support at $72.64, Feb 6 low, has been pierced. A clear breach would strengthen a bearish threat and open $70.86, Dec 9 low and a bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is $78.06, the Mar 9 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bull Rally Extends

• RES 4: $2000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: $1987.4 - 3.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 2: $1959.7 - High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $1923.2 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - 28 sell-off
• PRICE: $1902.2 @ 05:28 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: $1847.0 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1804.9 - Low Feb 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1787.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg

Gold rallied sharply higher last week and yesterday started the week on a firm note. Resistance at $1858.3, the Mar 6 high has been cleared. This signals scope for an extension towards $1923.2, a Fibonacci retracement point and a key near-term resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $1847.0, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level is required to signal a top - this would expose the bear trigger at $1804.9, the Feb 28 low.

SILVER TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $22.829 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg
• RES 2: $22.270 - 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg
• RES 1: $21.929 - High Mar 13
• PRICE: $21.764 @ 08:19 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: $20.591/19.904 - Low Mar 13 / 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 3: $19.232 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: $18.835 - Low Nov 3 2022

Silver has reversed sharply higher from last week’s low of $19.904, on Mar 10. The metal is testing resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $21.855. A clear breach of the average would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards $22.270, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, yesterday’s low at $20.591 marks initial support ahead of the bear trigger at $19.904.