MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Near-Term GBP Gains Look Corrective

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Fresh All-Time Highs

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis have traded to fresh all-time highs once again. The contract last week tested the 50-day EMA at 4145.50 and the average provided support, reinforcing bullish conditions. Attention turns to 4300.00. EUROSTOXX 50 futures found support Jun 21 at 4015.00. Attention is on the Jun 18 sell-off that in pattern terms is a bearish engulfing candle and signals a potential S/T top. The key directional triggers are; 4015.00, Jun 21 low and 4153.00, Jun 17 and the bull trigger
• In FX, the EURUSD outlook is unchanged and remains bearish following last week's sharp sell-off. The focus is on 1.1837 next, 76.4% of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally. GBPUSD remains vulnerable following last week's bearish pressure and recent gains are considered corrective. Attention is on 1.3717 next, Apr 16 low. The bear trigger is 1.3787, Jun 21 low. USDJPY edged higher Thursday and delivered a fresh 2021 high, following last week's print above Y110.97, Mar 31 high and the previous bull trigger. This cements the uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 111.30/47, the Mar 26, 2020 high and 1.0% 10-dma envelope.
• On the commodity front, Gold continues to consolidate. The outlook remains weak and the current consolidation appears to be a bear flag. This reinforces a bear theme and the focus is on $1756.2, low Apr 29. The Oil market trend conditions are bullish. Brent (Q1) focus is $76.97, 1.23 projection of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing. WTI (Q1) sights are set on $75.01, 1.382 projection of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing.
• Within FI, Bund futures have this week probed support at 171.80, Jun 17 low. A stronger sell-off would expose 171.37, Jun 3 low and 170.99, Mar 31 low and a key short-term support. Key support to watch in Gilt futures is unchanged at 126.70, Jun 3 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Theme Dominates

• RES 4: 1.2218 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 1.2147 High Jun 15
• RES 2: 1.2030 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2006 High Jun 17
• PRICE: 1.1923 @ 05:57 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 1.1848 Low Jun 18 and 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1837 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally
• SUP 3: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
• SUP 4: 1.1738 Low Apr 5

Despite last week's recovery, the EURUSD outlook is bearish following the recent sharp losses. Price has cleared the 50-day EMA and 1.2104, Jun 4 low, highlighting a bearish theme and this has also confirmed a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Attention is on 1.1837, a Fibonacci retracement where a break would open 1.1704, Mar 31 low and a key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance is 1.2006, the Jun 17 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 1.4203/48 High Jun 3 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 2: 1.4008 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.4001 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 1.3892 @ 06:00 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 1.3787 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3669 Low Apr 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD remains vulnerable. This follows recent weakness that resulted in the break of short-term support levels at the 50-day EMA and 1.4006, May 13 low. The pair has also traded through the 100-DMA, reinforcing current bearish conditions. Scope is seen for an extension lower towards 1.3717, Apr 14 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.4008, the 50-day EMA. The bear trigger is 1.3787, Jun 21 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 3: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 1: 0.8605/29 High Jun 25 / High Jun 15
• PRICE: 0.8584 @ 06:06 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 0.8530/31 Low June 23 / 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 2: 0.8489 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8403 2.0% 10-dma envelope

The EURGBP outlook remains bearish despite recent gains. Support at 0.8561, May 12 low was breached Jun 17. This signalled the end of the recent consolidation signalling scope for a deeper pullback. The focus remains on 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally and just above last week's low. A break would expose key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8646, Jun 1 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Price Structure Intact

• RES 4: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 111.71 High Mar 24 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 111.30/58 High Mar 26, 2020 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 111.12 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 110.63 @ 06:11 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 110.21/109.72 Low Jun 22 / Low June 21
• SUP 2: 109.50/19 50-day EMA / Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger

USDJPY traded higher last week and again delivered fresh 2021 highs following the print above Y110.97, Mar 31 high and a previous bull trigger. This cements the uptrend, maintaining a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 111.30/47, the Mar 26, 2020 high and 1.0% 10-dma envelope. Initial key support is unchanged at 109.72, Jun 21 low. A break of this level is required to signal a top.

EURJPY TECHS: Recovery Likely Corrective

• RES 4: 134.13 High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 132.88 High Jun 17
• RES 1: 132.70 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 131.92 @ 06:25 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 131.22/130.04 Low Jun 22 / Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 129.59 Low Apr 23
• SUP 3: 128.83 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support

Despite last week's corrective gains, EURJPY remains vulnerable. A bearish theme follows a sharp move lower between Jun 15 - 21. The cross traded through the 50-day EMA and importantly also breached the bull channel support drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. This highlights a reversal and note, price did also probe the 100-dma. Attention is on 130.00 and 129.59, Apr 23 low. Resistance is seen at 132.88, Jun 17 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.7776 High Jun 11
• RES 3: 0.7684 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 1: 0.7617 High Jun 25
• PRICE: 0.7594 @ 06:31 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 0.7538/7476 Low Jun 23 / Low Jun 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.7462 Low Dec 21, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.7372 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Mar 9 - 18 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.7339 Low Nov 30, 2020

Last week's AUDUSD gains are likely a correction. The outlook remains bearish following recent weakness that resulted in a break below key support at 0.7532 Apr 1 low and price has also tested the 200-dma. The move lower confirmed a resumption of the reversal that occurred Feb 25 and signals scope for a deeper pullback towards 0.7462 next, the Dec 21, 2020 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 0.7645, the Jun 17 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2535 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 1.2487/2501 High Jun 21 / 76.4% of Apr 21 - Jun 1 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2403 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 1.2303 @ 06:37 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 1.2259/53 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 1.2239 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2157 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 1.2057/2007 Low Jun 7 / Low May 18

The USDCAD pullback last week is considered corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. The recent break of 1.2203, May 6 high confirmed a S/T reversal and the pair has also cleared the 50-day EMA, reinforcing bullish conditions. The focus is on 1.2501, a Fibonacci retracement. A break would open 1.2653, Apr 21 high and an important resistance. Initial support is seen at 1.2253, Jun 23 low. Note the 50-day EMA at 1.2259 also marks support.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 173.79 High Apr 8
• RES 3: 173.32 76.4% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 2: 173.16 High Jun 11
• RES 1: 172.46/73.03 High Jun 23 / High Jun 21
• PRICE: 171.74 @ 05:13 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 171.67 Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 171.37 Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: 170.99 Low May 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 170.56 Low May 24

Bund futures, maintain a weaker tone and traded lower Friday. The contract probed support at 171.80, Jun 17 low last week. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper pullback and confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA. This would open 171.37, Jun 3 low ahead of a firmer support at 170.99, Mar 31 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 173.16, Jun 11 high where a break would instead confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Attention Is On Support

• RES 4: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.663 1.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.510 1.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.120/250 High Jun 24 / High Jun 17
• PRICE: 133.900 @ 05:16 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 133.860 Low May 28, 31, Jun 22 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 133.700 76.4% retracement of the May 20 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 3: 133.530 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 133.450 Low May 20 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures traded lower last week, extending the recent pullback. Although the move lower is considered corrective, a near-term bearish risk remains present. Price is below the 20-day EMA and key support lies at 133.860, May 28, 31 and Jun 22 low. A break lower would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 134.510, a Fibonacci projection and the Jun 11 high. Initial resistance is at 134.250.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Testing The Next Support

• RES 4: 112.210 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 112.185 High Jun 15 and 16
• RES 2: 112.175 High Jun 17 and 18
• RES 1: 112.140/165 High Jun 23, 24 / High Jun 21
• PRICE: 112.110 @ 05:28 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 112.110 Low Apr 20, Jun 22, 23, 25 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 112.086 138.2% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 3: 112.075 150.0% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 4: 112.064 161.8% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally

Schatz futures remain vulnerable. The contract traded lower last week and breached support at 112.120, May 17 and Jun 21 low. Note too that price is testing the 112.110 support, Apr 20 low and the low last week. Scope is seen for a move towards 112.086 and 112.075, Fibonacci retracement extensions. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 112.165, Jun 21 high. A break would ease the current bearish pressure and open 112.185, Jun 15, 16 highs.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Broader Bullish Price Structure Intact

• RES 4: 128.92 1.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 3: 128.50 1.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 128.39 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 128.08 High Jun 21
• PRICE: 127.55 @ Close Jun 25
• SUP 1: 127.25/126.91 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 126.70 Low Jun 23 / Low Jun 3 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 126.12 Low May 19

Gilt futures traded through a resistance at 127.74, May 26 high earlier this month. This confirmed a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and the positive price condition remains intact. The pullback between Jun 11 - 17 is considered corrective and price remains above a key S/T support at 126.70, Jun 3 low. A resumption of gains would open 128.39, Jun 11 high and the bull trigger. A break of 126.70 would instead be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 153.40 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 152.66 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 151.68/152.47 High Jun 17 / High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 151.04 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 150.86 @ Close Jun 24
• SUP 1: 149.97 Low Jun 25
• SUP 2: 149.74 50.0% retracement of the May 19 - Jun 14 rally
• SUP 3: 149.53 Low May 28
• SUP 4: 149.09 61.8% retracement of the May 19 - Jun 14 rally

BTP futures traded lower Friday and breached near-term support at 150.11, Jun 8 low. This signals scope for an extension of the current corrective pullback and attention turns to 149.74, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would open 149.53, May 28 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 151.04, Jun 22 high. A break would ease the current bearish pressure and expose 151.68, Jun 17 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Monitoring Recent Bearish Engulfing Candle

• RES 4: 4265.00 High Jan 15, 2008
• RES 3: 4200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• RES 1: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 4106.50 @ 05:53 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 4021.10/15.00 Channel base from Feb 26 (cont) / Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 4008.30 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low May 20
• SUP 4: 3871.00 Low May 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures found support on Jun 21 at 4015.00. Attention remains on the Jun 18 sell-off that in pattern terms is a bearish engulfing candle and signals a potential S/T top. Trend conditions are overbought and a corrective pullback would allow this to unwind. A resumption of weakness would expose the 50-day EMA at 4008.30. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 4153.00, Jun 17 high. A break resumes the uptrend.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Fresh All-Time High Print Once Again

• RES 4: 4415.48 1.00 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 4322.15 0.764 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 4300.00 Round Number Resistance
• RES 1: 4278.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4273.75 @ 07:30 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 4126.75 Low Jun 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 3967.00 High Mar 18

S&P E-minis are firmer and have traded to fresh all-time highs once again. The contract last week tested the 50-day EMA at 4145.50 and the average provided support, reinforcing bullish conditions. The rally from the EMA on Jun 21 also confirmed an important bull signal and in pattern terms was a bullish piercing candle. With 4258.25, Jun 15 high breached, attention turns to 4300.00. Key short-term support is at 4126.75, low Jun 21.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q1) Fresh Trend Highs

• RES 4: $79.63 - 1.50 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018
• RES 2: $76.97 - 1.23 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 1: $76.60 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $76.07 @ 06:40 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: $74.32 - Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: $73.07/01 - 20-day EMA / Low Jun 17
• SUP 3: $69.90 - High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 4: $67.75 - Low May 25

Brent crude futures traded higher again overnight, extending the bounce from $72.01, Jun 17 low. Last week's recovery and the continued follow through has resulted in fresh trend highs following the clearance last week of $74.96 Jun 16 high. The move confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A break below $72.01 is needed to signal a top.

WTI TECHS: (Q1) Extends Gains

• RES 4: $77.35 - 1.618 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $76.18 - 1.50 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $75.01 - 1.382 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 1: $74.45 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $74.08 @ 06:50 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: $70.72/69.54 - 20-day EMA / Low Jun 17 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $66.80 - High May 18
• SUP 3: $67.30 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $65.02 - Low May 26

WTI crude has again resumed its uptrend today extending last week's gains and the break of resistance at $72.74, Jun 16 high. The break higher maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and signals scope for further upside with attention on $75.01, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support has been defined at $69.54, Jun 17 low. A break of this level is required to signal a top.

GOLD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $1903.8/16.6 - High Jun 8 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
• RES 2: $1825.4 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $1822.9 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1783.4 07:07 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: $1761.1 - Low Jun 18
• SUP 2: $1756.2 - Low Apr 29
• SUP 3: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 4: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13

Gold is consolidating and this phase has taken on the appearance of a bear flag, reinforcing bearish conditions. The yellow metal traded sharply lower between Jun 11 - 18 confirming a bearish cycle. This resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA and the subsequent follow through signals scope for a deeper pullback. Attention is on $1756.2, Apr 29 low and $1733.5, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is seen at $1825.4, Jun 17 high.

SILVER TECHS: Consolidation But Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 3: $28.285 - High Jun 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $26.495/27.245 - High Jun 18 / High Jun 17
• PRICE: $26.121 @ 07:11 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: $25.554 - Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver remains weak following the recent sharp sell-off. The metal is consolidating near recent lows and this price action appears to be a bear flag, reinforcing current bearish conditions. The recent move lower resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and price remains below the average. Attention is on $24.955 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at $27.245, Jun 17 high.