MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - NZD Bearish Cycle Extends

TECH FOCUS: NZD Bearish Cycle Extends
The Kiwi has weakened today and against the USD has once again resumed the downleg following the recent reversal from the 0.7465 February high. The NZDUSD chart appears decidedly bearish.

Today's move lower has resulted in a breach of support at 0.7100, Mar 5 low confirming a resumption of the bearish cycle that has dominated since Feb 25.
The move lower also reinforces the bearish significance of the recent trendline break, drawn off the Mar 19, 2020 low. The break occurred on Mar 4 and this former resistance line has since capped recent gains. The break has confirmed an important reversal.
Attention turns to the first retracement level of the rally between Mar 16, 2020 and Feb 25 - 23.6% at 0.6994.
Key resistance has been defined at 0.7269, the Mar 18 high.

Price Signal Summary - Key EURUSD Directional Triggers Defined
In the equity space, E-mini S&P remain vulnerable following last week's selling pressure from 3978.50, Mar 18 high. The support to watch today is 3875.00, Friday's low. A break would confirm a breach of the 20-day EMA and reinforce short-term bearish conditions.
In the FX space:
o The key directional trigger in EURUSD this week are:
- Key support at 1.1836, Mar 9 low
- Resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1990, Mar 11 high

USDJPY remains in an uptrend. Attention is on 109.56, 76.4% of the Mar 2020 - Jan downleg and an important pivot resistance. Support lies at 108.34 Mar 10 low.

On the commodity front, a bullish theme in Gold remains in place following the recovery that started Mar 8. The focus is on $1783.2, the 50-day EMA. Support is at $1719.3, Mar 18 low. Oil contracts are likely to remain under pressure and gains are considered corrective. The bear trigger in Brent (K1) is $61.45, Mar 18 low. In WTI (K1), the bear trigger is $58.28, also the Mar 18 low.
In the FI space:
o The key directional triggers in Bunds (M1) this week are:
- 170.52, Mar 18 low
- 172.20, Mar 11 high

Gilts (M1) registered fresh trend lows last week confirming a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on 126.55, Apr 17, 2019 low (cont). The bear trigger is 126.79, Mar 18 low while resistance is 128.33, Mar 16 high. Treasuries (M1) remain in a downtrend. The focus is on 131-00 and 130-07, Feb 2 2020 low and a key support.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Attention Is On Key Support

• RES 4: 1.2067 High Mar 4
• RES 3: 1.2040 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1989/90 High Mar 18 / 11 and the short-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1947 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 1.1921 @ 05:32 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 1.1872 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 1.1857/36 200-DMA / Low Mar 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1800 Low Nov 23
• SUP 4: 1.1752 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing

EURUSD traded higher yesterday however despite this, a bearish risk remains present. The sell-off Thursday / Friday resulted in a break of 1.1883, Mar 16 low. This strengthens a short-term bearish theme and exposes key support at 1.1836, Mar 9 low. Note, the 200-day MA lies just above at 1.1857. A break of 1.1836 and of the MA, would confirm a resumption of this year's downtrend and open 1.1800. Key resistance is seen at 1.1990, Mar 11 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: The Bull Channel Base Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.4182 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 1.4062 61.8% retracement of the Feb 24 - Mar 5 low
• RES 2: 1.4005 High Mar 12 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.3905 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3863 @ 17:21 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 1.3816/13 Channel base from Nov 2, 2020 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3779 Low Mar 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3663 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Feb 4

GBPUSD is edging lower. The pair remains below resistance at 1.4005, Mar 12 high and at the lower end of its recent range. Attention is on support at 1.3779, Mar 5 low. A key bull channel support intersects at 1.3816 today. The channel is drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low. A clear break of both support levels would represent an important S/T reversal. This would open the 1.3700 and below. For bulls, a break of 1.4005 is needed to reinstate a bullish theme.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Gains

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Feb 9
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26 and the S/T reversal trigger
• RES 2: 0.8668 High Mar 3
• RES 1: 0.8640 High Mar 16
• PRICE: 0.8621 @ 06:02 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 0.8533 Low Mar 18 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Feb 28
• SUP 3: 0.8488 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27

EURGBP is firmer and pulling away from last week's lows. Gains are considered corrective and the outlook remains bearish. Trend signals still a downtrend and attention is on 0.8533, Mar 18 low and the bear trigger. A clear break would resume the trend and expose 0.8488, a volatility based support area. Firm resistance is at 0.8731, Feb 26 high. A break would signal a S/T reversal and open 0.8797, Feb 9 high. Initial resistance is 0.8640.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Pause For Breath

• RES 4: 110.63 0.764 proj of Mar - Apr 2020 rally from Jan 6 low
• RES 3: 109.85 High Jun 5, 2020
• RES 2: 109.70 High Jun 8, 2020
• RES 1: 109.36/56 High MAr 15 / 76.4% of Mar 2020 - Jan downleg
• PRICE: 108.74 @ 16:27 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 108.34 Low Mar 10 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 107.95 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 4: 106.52 50-day EMA

USDJPY is consolidating and trend conditions remain bullish. The focus is on 109.56, a key retracement where a break would reinforce bullish sentiment. Momentum studies are still overbought and this is being monitored. The condition is not having an impact on the trend though and instead, continues to reinforce the current bullish theme. Support to watch is at 108.34, Mar 10 low. A break would signal a possible top and a correction.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 132.06 76.4% of the Mar 2018 - May 2020 downtrend
• RES 3: 131.58 High Oct 4 2018
• RES 2: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 130.67 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 129.63 @ 06:17 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 128.90 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 128.78 Low Mar 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 2
• SUP 4: 128.13 50-day EMA

EURJPY maintains a bullish tone despite the recent pullback that is likely a correction. The cross yesterday traded below the 20-day EMA, a clear break would allow for a deeper pullback towards the 50-day EMA at 128.13. A trendline support drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low intersects at 127.94. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 130.67, Mar 18 high. A break would resume the underlying uptrend and open 131.22, a Fibonacci projection.

AUDUSD TECHS: Softer With Attention On Key Support

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7916 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 9 low
• RES 2: 0.7849/60 High Mar 18 / 61.8% of the Feb 25 - Mar 9 low
• RES 1: 0.7774 High Mar 19
• PRICE: 0.7685 @ 06:34 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 0.7669 Low Mar 10
• SUP 2: 0.7621 Low Mar 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.7583 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: 0.7564 Low Feb 2 and a key support

AUDUSD is weaker this morning. The pair found resistance last week at 0.7849, Mar 18 high This level marks an important short-term bull trigger where a break is required to resume the recent bullish cycle and suggest scope for an extension higher. This would open 0.7860, a Fibonacci retracement and beyond. Key support is at 0.7691, Mar 9 low, a break would instead resume the downleg that started on Mar 25.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching The 20-day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 1.2625/52 High Mar 11 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2561 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2547 @ 06:39 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 1.2462 Low Mar 19
• SUP 2: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2336 1.00 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2279 Trendline Drawn From May 2015 Low

USDCAD gains are considered corrective. The pair last week cleared key support at 1.2468, Feb 25 low and a recent bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A break of 1.2365, Mar 18 low would open 1.2279, a trendline drawn off the May 2015 low. On the upside, 1.2561 marks the next resistance, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: 172.83 Low May 5
• RES 3: 175.51 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 172.20 High Mar 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 171.80 High Mar 17 / 22
• PRICE: 171.61 @ 04:50 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 170.52 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 170.37 61.8% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 3: 169.94 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 4: 169.24 Low Feb 25 and the bear trigger

Bund futures are firmer following the recovery from 170.52, Mar 18 low. The contract last week however breached support at 170.72, Mar 5 low signalling scope for a deeper retracement. Attention remains on 170.37 and 169.94, two Fibonacci retracements. A breach of the latter would open key support at 169.24, Feb 25 low and the bear trigger. Following recent gains though, 172.20, Mar 11 high also remains exposed. A break would signal a reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Firm Posture

• RES 4: 135.480 High Jan 27 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 3: 135.370 High Jan 29 (cont)
• RES 2: 135.300 High Feb 1 (cont)
• RES 1: 135.290 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 135.240 @ 05:01 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 135.010 Low Mar 19
• SUP 2: 134.870 Low Mar 18
• SUP 3: 134.780 Low Mar 8 and 9
• SUP 4: 134.690 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 22 high

Bobl futures maintain a firmer tone. Yesterday, resistance at 135.220, Mar 16 was probed. A clear break would end the recent period of consolidation and confirm a resumption of the recovery that started Feb 26. This would pave the way for strength towards 135.300 initially, Feb 1 high (cont). Initial firm support has been defined at 134.870, Mar 18 low where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Needle Points North

• RES 4: 112.186 50-day EMA (cont)
• RES 3: 112.174 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 2: 112.152 0.50 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 1: 112.150 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 112.135 @ 05:06 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 112.095 Low Mar 19
• SUP 2: 112.070 Low Mar 18 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 112.060 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 112.045 Low Mar 1

Schatz futures maintain a firmer tone. The contract has traded above resistance at 112.125, Mar 1 / 2 high. The break strengthens a short-term bullish theme and signals the resumption of the recovery that started Feb 26. Attention is on 112.152 and 112.174, Fibonacci projections. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 112.070, Mar 18 low. A break is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Bearish Conditions Remain Intact

• RES 4: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 3: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 128.33 High Mar 16 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 128.04 High Mar 17
• PRICE: 127.75 @ Close Mar 22
• SUP 1: 126.79 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 125.07 High Dec 10, 2018

Gilt futures maintain a bearish tone. Last week's move to fresh lows confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and the move lower maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are also pointing south and further weakness is likely. The move through 127.00 opens 126.55 next, Apr 17, 2019 low (cont). On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 128.33, Mar 16 high.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Still Looking For Weakness

• RES 4: 151.33 1.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 3: 151.05 1.50 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 2: 150.69 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off
• RES 1: 150.01/39 High Mar 16 / High Mar 11
• PRICE: 149.34 @ Close Mar 22
• SUP 1: 148.36 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 148.20 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 3: 147.56 Low Mar 5
• SUP 4: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger

Last week's sell-off in BTP futures appears to be an early indication the recent correction between Feb 26 - Mar 11 has run its course. Resistance has been defined at 150.39, Mar 11 high and note that the pivotal 150.69 level also remains intact, 76.4% of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off. Continued weakness would open 147.56, the Mar 5 low. For bulls, a break of 150.39 is required to reinstate a bullish focus.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 3926.56 1.764 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 3: 3900.30 High May 2008
• RES 2: 3889.08 1.618 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 1: 3874.91 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 3833.84 @ Close Mar 22
• SUP 1: 3811.90 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 3782.63 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3742.53 High Feb 15 and recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 3697.65 50-day EMA

EUROSTOXX 50 is trading below recent highs. Short-term retracements though are considered corrective with bullish conditions remaining intact. The breach on Mar 8 of 3742.53, Feb 15 high confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. This also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 3889.08 next, a Fibonacci projection. The next firm support area is seen at the 20-day EMA. It intersects at 3782.63.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K1) Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Mar 5
• RES 3: $70.03 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $68.15 - High Mar 18
• RES 1: $65.68 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $64.02 @ 06:38 Mar 23
• SUP 1: $61.45 - Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $60.00 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $58.56 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $57.09 - High Jan 13

Brent crude futures remain vulnerable following the Mar 18 sell-off that confirmed a correction is underway. The recent trend condition was overbought and a pullback is allowing this to unwind. The sell-off has probed trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low, a clear break would reinforce a bearish theme. $61.45, Mar 18 low is the bear trigger. A breach would open $60.00 and $58.56, a Fibonacci retracement. Resistance is at $65.68.

WTI TECHS: (K1) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $67.79 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.44 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $64.88 - High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: $62.39 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $60.89 @ 06:47 Mar 23
• SUP 1: $58.28 - Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $57.06 - Low Feb 12
• SUP 3: $55.65 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $53.68 - High Jan 13

WTI futures sold off sharply Mar 18 confirming a corrective cycle. The recent trend condition was overbought and a pullback is allowing this to unwind. The move lower has probed trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low and this reinforces the current bearish theme. Price has also tested the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would open $55.65, the 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally. Resistance is at $62.39.

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 3: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 2: $1781.4 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1755.5 - High Mar 18
• PRICE: $1738.6 @ 07:03 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: $1719.3 - Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: $1699.3 - Low Mar 12
• SUP 3: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020

Gold is consolidating with support at $1719.3, Mar 18 low intact. A break lower would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open $1699.3, Mar 12 low and the trigger for a test of key support at $1676.9, Mar 8 low. From a short-term trend perspective, the recovery from $1676.9, Mar 8 low remains intact. Key near-term resistance and the bull trigger is at $1755.5, Mar 18 high. A break would open $1781.4, the 50-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: $28.328 - High Feb 23 and key resistance
• RES 3: $27.595 - High Feb 26
• RES 2: $27.081 - High Mar 1 and firm near-term resistance
• RES 1: $26.636 - High Mar 18
• PRICE: $25.652 @ 07:07 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: $25.391 - Low Mar 12
• SUP 2: $24.836/700 - Low Mar 5 / Low Jan 27
• SUP 3: $24.057 - Jan 18 low and a key support
• SUP 4: $23.524 - Low Dec 7

Silver traded lower yesterday. A bearish risk remains intact and the recent sell-off between Feb 23 - Mar 5 highlights this theme. A former key support at $25.905, Feb 4 low has also recently been cleared and this sets the scene for a deeper pullback exposing $24.700, Jan 27 low ahead of the Jan 18 low at $24.057. The bear trigger is at $24.836, Mar 5 low. On the upside, near-term resistance is seen at $26.636, Mar 18 high.