MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Oil Revisits Levels Last Seen in September

Price Signal Summary – Oil Revisits Levels Last Seen in September

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis remain vulnerable following today's sell-off. The move lower highlights the S/T importance of Tuesday's price action. The candle pattern on this day is a bearish shooting star formation and warned of a short-term top and scope for a deeper corrective pullback. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded sharply lower today. Today's sharp sell-off has resulted in a break of Wednesday's low of 4236.50 and more importantly a breach of the 50-day EMA.
• In FX, trend conditions are unchanged in the USD and the uptrend remains firmly intact. EURUSD has edged higher early Friday, but the outlook remains bearish. This week's move lower reinforces bearish conditions and confirmed an extension of the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. GBPUSD remains weak, despite modest stabilisation early Friday. This week's breach of 1.3353, Nov 12 low and 1.3334, 1.00 projection of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing cements the bearish outlook. USDJPY has struggled to hold onto recent highs and has traded sharply lower today. Recent price action has defined a key short-term resistance at 115.52, the Nov 24 high where a break is required to resume the recent upleg.
• On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating and remains vulnerable. The yellow metal has sold off sharply this week extending the move lower from $1877.2, the Nov 16 high. WTI futures trade under pressure early Friday, picking up from the early close on Thursday. Prices have slipped through the key near-term support at 74.25 on the way lower, opening levels not seen since late September. The 100-dma has somewhat arrested the decline, and may provide some support at 72.93.
• In the FI space, Bund futures are recovering from recent lows and importantly, support at 170.06, the Nov 5 low has remained intact. This suggests the recent move lower has been a correction and that a short-term uptrend remains intact. Gilt futures have rallied today and the contract gapped higher at the open. This price action negates recent bearish concerns and with resistance at 125.96, Nov 22 high breached.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Edging Higher, But Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.1755 High Sep 22
• RES 3: 1.1610/92 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high / High Oct 28
• RES 2: 1.1514 Low Nov 5
• RES 1: 1.1374/1390 High Nov 18 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1226 @ 09:32 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 1.1185 Low Jul 1, 2020
• SUP 2: 1.1128 1.764 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1040 76.4% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 uptrend
• SUP 4: 1.0976 2.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing

EURUSD has edged higher early Friday, but the outlook remains bearish. This week's move lower reinforces bearish conditions and confirmed an extension of the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.1185 next, Jul 1 2020 low ahead of 1.1128, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1374, Nov 18 high with the 20-day EMA at 1.1390.

GBPUSD TECHS: Downtrend Extends

• RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 3: 1.3698 High Nov 4
• RES 2: 1.3514/3607 High Nov 18 and a key resistance / High Nov 9
• RES 1: 1.3474 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3330 @ 09:33 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 1.3216 1.236 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.3188 Low Dec 21 2020
• SUP 3: 1.3165 38.2% Mar '20 - Jun '21 Upleg
• SUP 4: 1.3135 Low Dec 11 2020

GBPUSD remains weak, despite modest stabilisation early Friday. This week's breach of 1.3353, Nov 12 low and 1.3334, 1.00 projection of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing cements the bearish outlook and paves the way for an extension lower. Furthermore, moving average studies remain in a bear mode, reinforcing current conditions. The focus is on 1.3216 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Firm resistance has been defined at 1.3514, Nov 9 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 0.8595/98 High Nov 5 / 76.4% of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off
• RES 3: 0.8538/74 High Nov 15 / High Nov 11
• RES 2: 0.8486 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8477 High Nov 26
• PRICE: 0.8451 @ 09:34 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 0.8381 Low Nov 22
• SUP 2: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.8339 Low Feb 25, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8282/77 Low Feb 18, 2020 / Low Dec 13, 2019

EURGBP remains above recent lows and is trading higher today. Trend conditions however remain bearish following the recent sharp sell-off and break of 0.8403, Oct 26 low. Attention is on 0.8356 next, Feb 26, 2020 low. Note that the cross is also approaching the base of a broad multi-year range at 0.8300/8280. This area represents a major support. Initial resistance is seen at 0.8486, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Uptrend Extends

• RES 4: 117.53 High Jan 9, 2017
• RES 3: 116.87 High Jan 11, 2017
• RES 2: 116.09 1.764 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 1: 115.52 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 114.08 @ 09:35 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 113.66 / 59 Low Nov 26 / Low Nov 19 and a key support
• SUP 2: 113.20 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 112.73 Low Nov 9 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level

USDJPY has struggled to hold onto recent highs and has traded sharply lower today. Recent price action has defined a key short-term resistance at 115.52, the Nov 24 high where a break is required to resume the recent upleg. Note that short-term weakness is likely a correction with the broader trend structure continuing to highlight an uptrend. The first key short-term support to watch is 113.59, Nov 19 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Still Looking For Weakness

• RES 4: 132.56 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 131.59 High Nov 5
• RES 2: 130.45 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.60/129.99 High Nov 23 / High Nov 19
• PRICE: 128.43 @ 09:36 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 127.98/93 Low Nov 19 / Low Sep 22 and a key support
• SUP 2: 127.28 1.00 proj of the Jun 1 - Sep 22 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 3: 127.04 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 126.65 Low Feb 10

EURJPY remains above last week's 127.98 low however, the short-term outlook remains bearish and the cross is softer today. Recent weakness resulted in a probe of 128.33, Oct 6 low. A clear break would leave 127.93 exposed, Sep 22 low and the key support. A breach would strengthen bearish conditions and open 127.28, a Fibonacci projection level. 129.99, the Nov 19 high marks initial firm resistance. A break would ease bearish pressure.

AUDUSD TECHS: Slide Accelerates

• RES 4: 0.7432/7471 High Nov 9 / High Nov 4
• RES 3: 0.7371 High Nov 15
• RES 2: 0.7266/7305 Former channel base / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7228 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 0.7135 @ 09:36 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 0.7106 Low Aug 20 and a major support
• SUP 2: 0.7049 Low Nov 4, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.7028 Low Nov 3 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6991 Low Nov 2 2020

AUDUSD remains soft and the slide has accelerated today. This week's price action has resulted in a break of the base of its bull channel drawn from the Aug 20 low. The breach reinforces bearish conditions and signals scope for a deeper short-term pullback. Moving average signals have also recently shifted to bear mode, highlighting the current direction. The focus is on 0.7106, the Aug 20 low and a key support. Initial resistance is seen at 0.7228.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 1.2896 High Sep 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2849 High Sep 21
• RES 2: 1.2775 High Sep 29
• RES 1: 1.2774 High Nov 26
• PRICE: 1.2764 @ 09:36 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 1.2563/2493 20-day EMA / 16
• SUP 2: 1.2387 Low Nov 1o
• SUP 3: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2253 Low Jun 23

USDCAD outlook remains bullish following the recent retracement of the Sep - Oct sell-off. Price has confirmed a print above the October high of 1.2739 as well as 1.2753, 76.4% of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off. This opens 1.2775, Sep 29 high. Clearance of this retracement would set the scene for a climb towards 1.2896, the Sep 20 high. On the downside, a key short-term support has been defined at 1.2493, the Nov 16 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Recovers Off Recent Lows

• RES 4: 173.93 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 173.54 High Aug 31
• RES 2: 172.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off
• RES 1: 172.57 High Nov 22 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 171.71 @ 05:20 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 170.31 Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 170.06 Low Nov 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 168.98 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 167.69 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

Bund futures are recovering from recent lows and importantly, support at 170.06, the Nov 5 low has remained intact. This suggests the recent move lower has been a correction and that a short-term uptrend remains intact. The break on Nov 19 of the 171.95 - 61.8% of the Aug - Nov sell-off opens 172.95, the 76.4% retracement. On the downside, sub 170.06 level would alter the picture and highlight a bearish threat.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Bullish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: 136.14 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 135.870 High Sep 3
• RES 1: 135.690 High Nov 22 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 135.450 @ 05:26 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 134.966 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 134.700/320 Low Nov 11 / Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 133.900/690 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support (cont)

Bobl futures are recovering from Wednesday's low. The pullback earlier this week appears to be a correction. The contract on Nov 19 breached resistance at 135.320, Nov 15 high. This confirmed a resumption of the S/T uptrend and has opened 135.870 next, Sep 3 high. The break higher also signals scope for a climb towards 136.00 and beyond further out. Key S/T support is at 134.700, Nov 11 low. A break would reverse the direction.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 112.656 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Jun 2020 sell-off
• RES 3: 112.600 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 112.585 High Mar 17 2020 (cont)
• RES 1: 112.515 Intraday high
• PRICE: 112.460 @ 112:460 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 112.325/267 20- and 50-day EMAs
• SUP 2: 112.100 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 112.050 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 111.945 Low Oct 28 and major support

The Schatz futures outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. The contract has probed resistance at 112.495, Nov 22 high. A clear breach would again confirm a resumption of the short-term uptrend and pave the way for gains towards 112.585 next, Mar 17 2020 high (cont). Moving average conditions have recently turned bullish reinforcing the positive theme. Initial firm support lies at 112.267, the 50-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (H2) Testing Resistance

• RES 4: 127.69 High Sep 3
• RES 3: 127.36 High Sep 7
• RES 2: 127.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 125.25 Intraday high
• PRICE: 126.01 @ 09:45 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 124.94/17 High Nov 25 and gap low / Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 123.71 1.236 proj of the Nov 9 - 17 - 22 price swing
• SUP 3: 123.23 1.50 proj of the Nov 9 - 17 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 122.75 1.764 proj of the Nov 9 - 17 - 22 price swing

Gilt futures have rallied today and the contract gapped higher at the open. This price action negates recent bearish concerns and with resistance at 125.96, Nov 22 high breached, the key short -term hurdle at 126.23 has been exposed. This level has been probed and a clear break would strengthen the near-term outlook for bulls and open the 127.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 124.17, Nov 24 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Remains Closer To Recent Lows

• RES 4: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 1: 151.78/153.12 50-day EMA / High Nov 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 151.43 @ 09:42 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 149.59 Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 149.41 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - 10 rally
• SUP 3: 148.54 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - 10 rally
• SUP 4: 147.12 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

BTP futures traded lower Wednesday. This week's move down resulted in a break of support at 150.72, Nov 12 low. The breach undermines the recent bull theme and a deeper sell-off would open 149.41 next, a Fibonacci retracement level. However, the contract has bounced off Wednesday's low of 149.59. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 153.12, Nov 10 high. Initial resistance to watch is at 151.78, the 50-day EMA

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Sharp Bearish Retracement

• RES 4: 4420.80 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 3: 4409.50 High Nov 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4304.50 Nov 24 high
• RES 1: 4237.60 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 4142.50 @ 09:28 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 4093.00 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Nov rally
• SUP 2: 4004.00 Low Oct 12
• SUP 3: 3949.50 Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3882.00 Low Jul 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded sharply lower today. Today's sharp sell-off has resulted in a break of Wednesday's low of 4236.50 and more importantly a breach of the 50-day EMA. This signals scope for a deeper decline and attention is on 4058.10, a Fibonacci retracement where a break would expose the key support at 6949.50, the Oct 6 low. On the upside, a move above 4304.50, the Nov 24 high is required to ease bearish pressure.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Shooting Star Candle Highlights Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4783.40 1.764 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4740.50/46.68 High Nov 22 / 1.618 of Jul 19-Aug 16-19 swing
• RES 1: 4717.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4612.75 @ 09:25 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 4594.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4562.53/4543.75 50-day EMA / Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 4472.00 High Sep 27
• SUP 4: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger

S&P E-minis remain vulnerable following today's sell-off. The move lower highlights the S/T importance of Tuesday's price action. The candle pattern on this day is a bearish shooting star formation and warned of a short-term top and scope for a deeper corrective pullback. Support at 4625.25 level, Nov 10 low has been breached to strengthen the short-term case for bears. This has opened the 50-day EMA at 4562.53. Key resistance is at 4740.50.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F2) Pulls Away From Recent Highs

• RES 4: $87.73 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $87.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $85.77 - High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $83.14 - High Nov 16
• PRICE: $78.00 @ 09:41 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: $77.58 - Low Nov 22
• SUP 2: $77.19 - 38.2% retracement of the Aug 23 - Oct 25 rally
• SUP 3: $75.80 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $74.70 - High Sep 15

Brent futures remain above recent lows but the contract is facing selling pressure today. The contract has failed to clear initial firm resistance at $83.14, Nov 16 high where a break would strengthen conditions for bulls and signal potential for a climb towards the major resistance of $85.77, Oct 25 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $77.58, Nov 22 low. A break would be bearish.

WTI TECHS: (F2) Under Pressure

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $84.50 - 1.236 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $83.30/83.83 - High Nov 10 / High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $79.23/80.68 - High Nov 24 / Low Nov 4 / High Nov 16
• PRICE: $73.23 @ 09:42 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: $73.14 - Low Nov 26
• SUP 2: $74.25 - Low Oct 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $72.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $70.81 - Low Sep 23

WTI futures trade under pressure early Friday, picking up from the early close on Thursday. Prices have slipped through the key near-term support at 74.25 on the way lower, opening levels not seen since late September. The 100-dma has somewhat arrested the decline, and may provide some support at 72.93. To resume the previous bullish trend, prices must top $80.68, Nov 16 high, where a break would strengthen short-term conditions for bulls. This would signal potential for a climb towards the major resistance of $83.83, Oct 25 high.

GOLD TECHS: Attention Is On The Bull Channel Base

• RES 4: $1909.7 - High Jun 3
• RES 3: $1903.8 - High Jun 8
• RES 2: $1877.2/84.5 High Nov 16 / Bull channel top
• RES 1: $1816.8/49.1 - 20-day EMA / High Nov 22
• PRICE: $1804.9 @ 09:45 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: $1778.7 - Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: $1759.0 - Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1757.1 - Bull Channel base drawn from the Aug 9 low
• SUP 4: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and a key support

Gold is consolidating and remains vulnerable. The yellow metal has sold off sharply this week extending the move lower from $1877.2, the Nov 16 high. Price has also traded below the 20- and the 50-day EMA. The clear breach of these averages suggests scope for a deeper pullback and attention is on the base of a bull channel at $1757.1. The channel is drawn off the Aug 9 low. Initial resistance is at $1816.8, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $26.778 - High Jul 6
• RES 3: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 2: $26.002 - High Aug 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.406 - High Nov 16
• PRICE: $23.488 @ 09:46 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: $23.020 - Low Nov 3 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver remains near recent lows. The metal has traded through the 50-day EMA this week. The break of this average suggests scope for a deeper short-term pullback and opens $23.020, the Nov 3 low and a firm near-term support. For bulls, a move above $25.406, Nov 16 high would reinstate a bullish theme and confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This would open $26.002, the Aug 4 high.