MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Positive Price Sequence in EUR/USD Continues

Price Signal Summary – Positive Price Sequence in EUR/USD Continues

• S&P E-Minis are consolidating but the contract remains bullish and is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A bull theme follows last week’s strong gains that resulted in a break of 3928.00, Nov 1 high. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact. Price is consolidating but importantly, the contract is trading at its recent highs. Resistance at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high and an important bull trigger, has been breached.
• EURUSD is unchanged and still trading closer to its recent highs. The technical condition remains bullish following recent gains. A positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. Short-term trend conditions in USDJPY remain bearish. The current pause in the downtrend appears to be a bear flag formation, reinforcing the current downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 137.37, the Aug 29 low. AUDUSD conditions remain bullish and this week’s move higher has reinforced current conditions. The pair has recently cleared 0.6768, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg.
• Short-term trend conditions in Gold remain bullish. Last week’s rally resulted in the break of a number of important resistance points. The yellow metal has cleared $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. WTI futures appear vulnerable following last week’s bearish price activity and the contract is trading at this week’s lows. A bearish shooting star candle on Nov 7 was followed by a bearish engulfing candle the following day and these patterns highlighted an early reversal signal.
• Bund futures traded higher Wednesday to a fresh short-term trend high of 140.86. Price is above the 50-day EMA at 139.91. A clear breach of this average would threaten the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend and this was confirmed once again Wednesday as the contract resumed its uptrend. This marks an extension of the latest bounce from 99.92, the Nov 8 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.0615 High Jun 27
• RES 3: 1.0559 1.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0536 High Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.0479 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 1.0380 @ 05:43 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 1.0272/0163 Low Nov 14 / 11
• SUP 2: 1.0094 High Oct 27 and a key near-term resistance
• SUP 3: 0.9936 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.9853 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 28 low

EURUSD is unchanged and still trading closer to its recent highs. The technical condition remains bullish following recent gains. A positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart and a bullish moving average set-up highlight positive market sentiment. An extension would open 1.0536, the late June high. Short-term pullbacks would be considered corrective. Firm support lies at 1.0094 the Oct 27 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2241 200-dma
• RES 3: 1.2143 High Aug 17
• RES 2: 1.2068 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.2028 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 1.1899 @ 05:56 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 1.1647 Low Nov 11
• SUP 2: 1.1504 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1334/1150 Low Nov 09 / Nov 04 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1061 Low Oct 21

GBPUSD is unchanged and is trading just ahead of Tuesday’s 1.2028 high. The technical condition remains bullish but it is worth noting that the trend is nearing overbought territory - prices on Tuesday, pierced the 3.0% 10-dma envelope which was followed by a pull lower in spot. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective. Tuesday’s high of 1.2028 is the trigger for a resumption of gains. Firm support lies at 1.1504, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 1: 0.8829 High Nov 09
• PRICE: 0.8721 @ 06:05 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 0.8695 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP is in consolidation mode and remains inside its recent range. The trend outlook is bullish following recent gains. This resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8781, the Oct 21 high. The move higher opens 0.8867 next, the Oct 12 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position and this suggests that the broader uptrend remains intact. For bears, a move through the Oct 31 low of 0.8560 is required to resume bearish activity.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Flag

• RES 4: 144.12 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 143.96 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.48 High Nov 11
• RES 1: 140.80 High Nov 14
• PRICE: 139.50 @ 06:46 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 137.68 Low Nov 15
• SUP 2: 137.37 Low Aug 29
• SUP 3: 135.82 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 135.49 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg

Short-term trend conditions in USDJPY remain bearish. The current pause in the downtrend appears to be a bear flag formation, reinforcing the current downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 137.37, the Aug 29 low. The pair has pierced 138.64, 61.8% of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg. A clear break of this key Fibonacci retracement would also reinforce bearish conditions. The 50-day EMA at 143.96 remains a key short-term resistance.

EURJPY TECHS: Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 3: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 2: 147.10 High Nov 9
• RES 1: 145.50 High Nov 16
• PRICE: 144.91 @ 06:54 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 142.57 Low Nov 11 and the bear Trigger
• SUP 2: 141.78 Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: 140.90 Low Oct 10
• SUP 4: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 rally

EURJPY remains above last week’s low print of 142.57. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 143.80, the Oct 24 low and price traded below the 50-day EMA. A resumption of bearish activity would signal potential for a deeper retracement and this would open 141.60, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 147.10, the Nov 9 high, would instead expose the bull trigger at 148.40, the Oct 21 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 3: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 0.6800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6797 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 0.6732 @ 07:00 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 0.6663/6578 Low Nov 14 / 11
• SUP 2: 0.6546/0.6530 50-day EMA / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support

AUDUSD conditions remain bullish and this week’s move higher has reinforced current conditions. The pair has recently cleared 0.6768, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg. The break opens the 0.6800 handle next. Firm short-term support has been defined at 0.6387, the Nov 10 low. Initial support lies at 0.6663 and 0.6578, the Nov 14 and 11 lows respectively.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Trend Condition

• RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3695 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 high
• RES 2: 1.3571 High Nov 10
• RES 1: 1.3462 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3320 @ 08:00 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 1.3226 Low Nov 15
• SUP 2: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3139 Low Sep 14
• SUP 4: 1.3023 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD remains bearish and is consolidating at its recent lows. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a new multi-month low and confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend. This also marks an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A continuation of the trend would open 1.3205, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3571, the Nov 10 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 3: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 140.92 High Oct 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 140.86 High Nov 16
• PRICE: 140.47 @ 05:06 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 138.49 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 136.92 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 135.76/65 Low Nov 8 / 76.4% of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase
• SUP 4: 135.23 Low Oct 24

Bund futures traded higher Wednesday to a fresh short-term trend high of 140.86. Price is above the 50-day EMA at 139.91. A clear breach of this average would threaten the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. This would open 140.92, the Oct 28 high and 142.87, the Oct 4 high. The 20-day EMA marks initial support - it intersects at 138.49. Key short-term support lies at 135.76, the Nov 8 low.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 121.010 High Oct 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.530 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 120.110 @ 05:11 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 119.110/118.260 Low Nov 10 / 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 117.630 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.986 2.764 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures remain below last week’s highs. Recent gains resulted in a test above the 50-day EMA, at 120.240 today. A clear break of this EMA would undermine the recent bearish theme and expose 121.010, the Oct 28 high and potentially 121.950 further out, the Oct 4 high. On the downside, a break of 118.260, the Nov 8 low is required to highlight a resumption of bearish activity and expose the key bear trigger at 117.630.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Resistance Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 3: 107.400 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 107.168 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.075 High Nov 11
• PRICE: 106.880 @ 05:14 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 106.615/415 Low Nov 10 / 8
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

Schatz futures continue to trade above the Nov 8 low. The trend condition is bearish, however, a resumption of last week’s gains would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 107.168. Clearance of this average would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. On the downside, key support lies at 106.415, the Nov 8 low and 106.350, the Oct 21 low. The latter is the bear trigger.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 109.47 High Aug 31 (cont)
• RES 3: 108.59 61.8% of the Aug 2 - Oct 12 bear leg (cont)
• RES 2: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 106.93 0.50 proj of the Oct 12 - Oct 27 - Nov 8 price swing
• PRICE: 106.52 @ Close Nov 16
• SUP 1: 104.64 Low Nov 16
• SUP 2: 102.60 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 101.60 Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: 99.92 Low NOv 8 and key short-term support

Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend and this was confirmed once again Wednesday as the contract resumed its uptrend. This marks an extension of the latest bounce from 99.92, the Nov 8 low. Last week’s break of 104.39, Oct 27 high, confirmed a recent bull flag formation on the daily chart, reinforcing bullish conditions. This has opened 108.59, a Fibonacci retracement on the continuation chart. Initial firm support lies at 102.60, the 50-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 124.35 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 3: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 119.06 High Sep 8 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 118.62 @ Close Nov 16
• SUP 1: 115.09/112.45 20-day EMA / Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
• SUP 3: 108.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support

BTP futures traded higher Wednesday. The contract has breached resistance at 117.93, the Oct 27 high. The break suggests scope for an extension towards 119.06, the Sep 8 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a continuation of the current bull cycle. Initial firm support is seen at 115.08, the 20-day EMA ahead of 112.45, the Nov 8 low. A break below the latter would reinstate a bearish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Trading At Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 3961.20 61.8/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance (cont)
• RES 1: 3932.00 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 3884.00 @ 05:43 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 3810.00/3697.00 High Aug 17 / Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 3602.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3562.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3418.00 Low Oct 21

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact. Price is consolidating but importantly, the contract is trading at its recent highs. Resistance at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high and an important bull trigger, has been breached. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up and this highlights positive market sentiment. The focus is on 3944.00, Mar 29 high on the continuation chart. Initial firm support lies at 3697.00, the Nov 10 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Bulls Still In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 4175.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4146.63 76.4% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4050.75 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 3984.00 @ 06:55 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 3848.65 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3750.00 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 3704.25 Low Nov3 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 3641.50 Low Oct 21

S&P E-Minis are consolidating but the contract remains bullish and is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A bull theme follows last week’s strong gains that resulted in a break of 3928.00, Nov 1 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and price has established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily scale. The focus is on 4100.00 next. On the downside, key short-term support is at 3704.25, the Nov 3 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $105.58 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $100.10 - High Jul 29
• RES 1: $96.95/99.56 - High Nov 14 / 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $92.21 @ 06:59 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: $91.53 - Low Nov 15 and a key support
• SUP 2: $87.52 - Low Oct 18 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $83.38 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key medium-term support

Brent futures are trading at this week’s lows and a bear threat remains present. A bearish engulfing pattern on Nov 8 provided an early reversal signal. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA at $92.74. A clear break of this EMA would open the $90.00 handle and $87.52, the Oct 18 low and a key support. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $99.56, the Nov 7 high. A break would be bullish.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $99.79 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 2: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $90.10/93.74 - High Nov 11 / 7 and key resistance
• PRICE: $84.77 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: $84.06 - Low Nov 15
• SUP 2: $81.30 - Low Oct 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $78.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $75.70 - Low Sep 26 and a key medium-term support

WTI futures appear vulnerable following last week’s bearish price activity and the contract is trading at this week’s lows. A bearish shooting star candle on Nov 7 was followed by a bearish engulfing candle the following day and these patterns highlighted an early reversal signal. A continuation lower would open $81.30, the Oct 18 low and a key support. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at $93.74, Nov 7 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1800.0 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $1786.5 - High Nov 15
• PRICE: $1766.1 @ 07:13 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: $1729.5/1702.3 - High Oct 4 / Low Nov 9
• SUP 2: $1697.5 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1664.8 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger

Short-term trend conditions in Gold remain bullish. Last week’s rally resulted in the break of a number of important resistance points. The yellow metal has cleared $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. This strengthens the current bullish theme and opens the $1800.0 handle and a key resistance at $1807.9, the Aug 10 high. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $1702.3, the Nov 9 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: $23.567 - High Apr 29
• RES 3: $23.360 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• RES 1: $22.252 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• PRICE: $21.289 @ 07:23 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: $20.576 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $19.975 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $18.835/17.967 - Low Nov 3 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 4: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger

Silver has pulled back from its recent highs. The short-term outlook however remains bullish. The metal rallied sharply higher on Nov 4. Price has since breached resistance at $21.242, the Oct 4 high. The break strengthens bullish conditions and highlights a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. This opens $22.253, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support is seen at $20.576, the 20-day EMA.