MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S/T Trend Conditions Remain Bullish for Gold

Price Signal Summary – S/T Trend Conditions Remain Bullish for Gold

• The short-term outlook in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and a pullback would be considered corrective. A bullish theme follows recent strong gains that resulted in a break of 3928.00, the Nov 1 high. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and price is trading just ahead of its recent highs. Resistance at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high and an important bull trigger, has recently been breached, strengthening the case for bulls.
• EURUSD trend conditions remain bullish, however, the pair is starting the week on a softer note with resistance at 1.0479 intact, the Nov 15 high. The move lower is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. EURGBP edged lower into Friday’s close, breaking out of the recent tight range. The cross is lower today, extending the pullback from the 0.8829 high on Nov 9. A continuation lower would expose the Oct 31 low of 0.8560. AUDUSD conditions remain bullish and last week’s high print reinforced current conditions. However, the pair is trading lower today. A short-term pullback is considered corrective and the next support lies at 0.6556, the 50-day EMA.
• Short-term trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in the break of $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. This strengthens the current bullish theme. WTI futures remain bearish and the contract traded lower again Friday. This confirms an extension of the reversal from $93.74, Nov 7 high. Support at $81.30, Oct 18 low and a bear trigger, was cleared Friday.
• Bund futures maintain a bullish tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price is trading just above the 50-day EMA at 139.94. A clear breach of this average would threaten the recent bearish theme. Short-term trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bullish. The contract traded higher last week, extending the current uptrend. Short-term pullbacks would be considered corrective.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.0615 High Jun 27
• RES 3: 1.0559 1.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0536 High Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.0479 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0279 @ 05:48 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 1.0198/0125 High Sep 12 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0094 High Oct 27 and a key near-term resistance
• SUP 3: 1.0026 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.9936 Low Nov 11

EURUSD trend conditions remain bullish, however, the pair is starting the week on a softer note with resistance at 1.0479 intact, the Nov 15 high. The move lower is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Next support lies at 1.0198, the Sep 12 high. On the upside, a resumption of gains and a break of 1.0479 would mark the end of the correction and confirm a resumption of recent gains.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Below Last Week’s High

• RES 4: 1.2224 200-dma
• RES 3: 1.2143/94 High Aug 17 / 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2080 High Aug 18
• RES 1: 1.2028 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.1831 @ 06:00 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 1.1764/1617 Low Nov 17 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1533 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1334/1150 Low Nov 09 / Nov 04 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1061 Low Oct 21

GBPUSD is consolidating just below last week’s high of 1.2028, the Nov 15 high. The trend condition remains bullish but short-term signals highlight an overbought condition. Last week’s gains resulted in a print above the upper band of the 3.0% 10-dma envelope, before pulling back. A deeper retracement would be considered corrective. 1.2028 is the trigger for a resumption of gains. Firm support is at 1.1533, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Softer Short-Term Tone

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 1: 0.8776/8829 High Nov 16 / 09 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8691@ 06:36 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 0.8682 Low Nov 18
• SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP edged lower into Friday’s close, breaking out of the recent tight range. The cross is lower today, extending the pullback from the 0.8829 high on Nov 9. A continuation lower would expose the Oct 31 low of 0.8560, Oct 31 low, where a break would resume bearish activity. Moving average studies remain in bull mode position and this suggests that the broader uptrend remains intact. A break of 0.8829 would resume bullish activity.

USDJPY TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 145.11 Low Oct 27 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 143.68 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.48 High Nov 11
• RES 1: 140.80 High Nov 14
• PRICE: 140.70 @ 06:43 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 137.68 Low Nov 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 137.37 Low Aug 29
• SUP 3: 135.82 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 135.49 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg

Short-term trend conditions in USDJPY remain bearish and recent price action highlights a bear flag formation. If correct, this reinforces the downtrend. A continuation lower would open 137.37, the Aug 29 low. The pair has pierced 138.64, 61.8% of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg. A clear break of this key Fibonacci retracement would reinforce bearish conditions. The 50-day EMA at 143.68 remains a key short-term resistance.

EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 3: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 2: 147.10 High Nov 9
• RES 1: 146.13 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 21 high
• PRICE: 144.60 @ 06:48 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 143.97/42.57 50-day EMA / Low Nov 11 and the bear Trigger
• SUP 2: 141.78 Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: 140.90 Low Oct 10
• SUP 4: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 rally

EURJPY remains above 142.57, the Nov 10 low. A bearish threat remains present. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 143.80, the Oct 24 low and price pierced the 50-day EMA. A continuation lower would open 141.60, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 147.10, the Nov 9 high, would instead expose the bull trigger at 148.40, the Oct 21 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 3: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 0.6800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6797 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 0.6639 @ 06:59 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 0.6634/6578 Low Nov 17 / 11
• SUP 2: 0.6556 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support

AUDUSD conditions remain bullish and last week’s high print reinforced current conditions. However, the pair is trading lower today. A short-term pullback is considered corrective and the next support lies at 0.6556, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, the pair has recently breached 0.6768, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg. A resumption of gains would open the 0.6800 handle.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3684 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 high
• RES 2: 1.3571 High Nov 10
• RES 1: 1.3453 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3411 @ 08:03 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 1.3226 Low Nov 15
• SUP 2: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3139 Low Sep 14
• SUP 4: 1.3023 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD remains bearish, but appears to have entered a bullish corrective cycle and remains above its recent lows. Resistance to watch is at 1.3453, the 50-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger recovery and this would open 1.3571, the Nov 10 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3226, the Nov 15 low. A break would resume bearish activity.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 3: 142.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 141.09 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 140.46 @ 05:09 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 138.78 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 136.92 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 135.76/65 Low Nov 8 / 76.4% of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase
• SUP 4: 135.23 Low Oct 24

Bund futures maintain a bullish tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price is trading just above the 50-day EMA at 139.94. A clear breach of this average would threaten the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. This would open 142.87, the Oct 4 high. The 20-day EMA marks initial support - it intersects at 138.78. Key short-term support lies at 135.76, the Nov 8 low.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 121.010 High Oct 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.530 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 119.930 @ 05:10 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 119.110/118.260 Low Nov 10 / 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 117.630 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.986 2.764 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures continue to trade below 120.530, the Nov 10 high. Recent gains have resulted in a test above the 50-day EMA, at 120.206 today. A clear breach of this EMA would undermine the recent bearish theme and expose 121.010, the Oct 28 high and potentially 121.950 further out, the Oct 4 high. On the downside, a break of 118.260, the Nov 8 low is required to highlight a resumption of bearish activity and expose the key bear trigger at 117.630.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 3: 107.400 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 107.139 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.075 High Nov 11
• PRICE: 106.850 @ 05:12 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 106.615/415 Low Nov 10 / 8
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

Schatz futures are trading in a range and remain above the Nov 8 low. The trend condition is bearish, however, a resumption gains would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 107.139. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. On the downside, key support lies at 106.415, the Nov 8 low and 106.350, the Oct 21 low. The latter is the bear trigger.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 109.47 High Aug 31 (cont)
• RES 3: 108.59 61.8% of the Aug 2 - Oct 12 bear leg (cont)
• RES 2: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 107.17 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 105.70 @ Close Nov 18
• SUP 1: 104.64 Low Nov 16
• SUP 2: 102.86 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 101.60 Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: 99.92 Low Nov 8 and key short-term support

Short-term trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bullish. The contract traded higher last week, extending the current uptrend. Short-term pullbacks would be considered corrective. The recent break of 104.39, Oct 27 high, confirmed a bull flag formation on the daily chart, reinforcing bullish conditions. This has opened 108.59, a Fibonacci retracement on the continuation chart. Initial firm support lies at 102.86, the 50-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: 124.35 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 3: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 119.33 High Nov 18
• PRICE: 119.24 @ Close Nov 18
• SUP 1: 115.76/113.80 20-day EMA / Low Nov 9
• SUP 2: 112.45 Low Nov 8
• SUP 3: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
• SUP 4: 108.82 Low Oct 21

BTP futures traded higher Friday. The contract has breached 117.93, the Oct 27 high and a key resistance at 119.06, the Sep 8 high, has been pierced. A clear break of 119.06 would pave the way for a continuation of the current bull cycle and open the 120.00 handle. Initial firm support is seen at 115.76, the 20-day EMA. Key support lies at 112.45, the Nov 8 low. A break below the latter would reinstate a bearish theme.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 115-14+ 50.0% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 downleg
• RES 3: 114-17 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 113-30 High Oct 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 113-11 High Nov 16
• PRICE: 112-15+ @ 15:44 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 111-17+/110-12+ 20-day EMA / Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 109+10+ Low Nov 04
• SUP 3: 108-26+ Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 108-06+ Low Oct 2007 (cont)

Treasury futures faded further into the Friday close and the contract continues to trade below this week’s high print of 113-11. The outlook remains bullish. The contract has recently breached resistance at 112-14, the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would strengthen the case for short-term bulls and open 113-30, the Oct 4 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is at 111-17+, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Holding On To Recent Gains

• RES 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 3961.20 61.8/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance (cont)
• RES 1: 3936.00 High Nov 18
• PRICE: 3910.00 @ 05:50 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 3810.00/3697.00 High Aug 17 / Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 3625.60 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3562.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3418.00 Low Oct 21

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and price is trading just ahead of its recent highs. Resistance at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high and an important bull trigger, has recently been breached, strengthening the case for bulls. Furthermore, moving average studies remain in a bull mode set-up, highlighting positive market sentiment. The focus is on 3944.00, Mar 29 high on the continuation chart. Initial firm support lies at 3697.00, the Nov 10 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 4175.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4146.63 76.4% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4050.75 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 3959.75 @ 06:54 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 3861.92 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3750.00 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 3704.25 Low Nov 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 3641.50 Low Oct 21

The short-term outlook in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and a pullback would be considered corrective. A bullish theme follows recent strong gains that resulted in a break of 3928.00, the Nov 1 high. This strengthens a short-term current condition and price has established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily scale. The focus is on 4100.00 next. On the downside, key short-term support is at 3704.25, the Nov 3 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $100.10 - High Jul 29
• RES 2: $96.95/99.56 - High Nov 14 / 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $90.63/92.79 - High Nov 18 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $86.80 @ 07:01 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: $85.33 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Nov 7 bull cycle
• SUP 2: $83.38 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 3: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key medium-term support
• SUP 4: $80.00 - Round number support

Brent futures remain bearish and the contract traded sharply lower again Friday. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of support at $87.52, the Oct 18 low. This reinforces the current bearish theme and paves the way for a move towards $85.33 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would signal scope for weakness towards $80.94 further out, the Sep 26 low and a bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is at $92.79, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Price Action

• RES 4: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 3: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $90.10/93.74 - High Nov 11 / 7 and key resistance
• RES 1: $81.30/86.54 - Low Oct 18 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $77.40 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: $75.70 - Low Sep 26 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 2: $73.89 - 1.00 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 26 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $69.21 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 26 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures remain bearish and the contract traded lower again Friday. This confirms an extension of the reversal from $93.74, Nov 7 high. Support at $81.30, Oct 18 low and a bear trigger, was cleared Friday. $79.96, 76.4% of the Sep 26 - Nov 7 bull phase has also been breached. Attention turns to $75.70, the Sep 26 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at $86.54, the 50-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1800.0 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $1786.5 - High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1745.0 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: $1729.5 - High Oct 4
• SUP 2: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1664.8 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger

Short-term trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in the break of $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. This strengthens the current bullish theme and signals scope for $1800.0 and a key resistance at $1807.9, Aug 10 high. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $1702.3, the Nov 9 low. The bull trigger is at $1786.5, the Nov 15 high.

SILVER TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $23.567 - High Apr 29
• RES 3: $23.360 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• RES 1: $22.251/253 - High Nov 15 / 50.0% of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• PRICE: $20.844 @ 08:07 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: $20.6442 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $20.050 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $18.835/17.967 - Low Nov 3 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 4: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger

Silver has pulled back from its recent highs. However, the short-term outlook remains bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. The metal rallied sharply higher on Nov 4 and price has breached resistance at $21.242, Oct 4 high. The break strengthens bullish conditions and highlights a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens $22.253, a Fibonacci retracement. First support is seen at $20.644, the 20-day EMA.