MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Correction Extends

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Correction Extends

• In the equity space, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish, however, a corrective cycle suggests scope for a pullback near-term. This will allow an overbought reading in momentum studies to unwind - attention is on the 20-day EMA at 4164.93. A breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper pullback, potentially exposing the 50-day EMA, at 4078.40. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in an uptrend, however, the contract has entered a corrective phase. The 20-day EMA, at 3709.50, has been cleared and sights are on the 50-day EMA at 3650.80 - a key area of support.
• In FX, EURUSD outlook remains bearish. The recent move down has confirmed a short-term reversal and means the pair has failed to clear channel resistance. The bear channel is drawn from the Feb 10 high and intersects at 1.0282. Sights are on 0.9952 next, the Jul 14 low. GBPUSD is weaker, having breached support at 1.2004, the Aug 5 low. The break lower signals scope for an extension and has opened 1.1760, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger. USDJPY continues to appreciate and last week traded above resistance at 135.58 last week, the Aug 8 high. The pair has today pierced 137.27, 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Aug 2 downleg. A clear break of this level would open 137.96, the Jul 22 high.
• On the commodity front, Gold is trading lower, extending the pullback from $1807.9, the Aug 10 high. The yellow metal has failed to confirm a clear break of the 5-month downtrend and the break of support at $1754.4 Aug 3 low, signals scope for a deeper pullback towards $1711.7 next. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain vulnerable. Last week’s move down has resulted in a print below support at $87.01, the Aug 5 low. This reinforces bearish conditions and a clear break of $87.01 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Attention is on $85.37, the Mar 15 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $95.05, the Aug 11 high.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a bear cycle and the contract is trading at its recent lows. The focus is on the 150.00 handle next. Gilts remain vulnerable. The next objective is 112.24, 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 1.0488 High Jun 30
• RES 3: 1.0449 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 1.0282/68 Channel top from Feb 10 high / High Aug 10
• RES 1: 1.0097/0189 Low Jul 27 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0010 @ 10:20 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 0.9990 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.9952 Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD traded lower last week to extend the recent pullback from 1.0368, the Aug 10 high. The outlook remains bearish. The recent move down has confirmed a short-term reversal and means the pair has failed to clear channel resistance. The bear channel is drawn from the Feb 10 high and intersects at 1.0282. Supports at 1.0123, Aug 3 low and 1.0007, Jul 15 low, have been cleared. This opens 0.8852 next. Key resistance is at 1.0368.

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 3: 1.2152/2293 50-day EMA / High Aug 01
• RES 2: 1.2004/1.2064 Low Aug 5 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1938 High Aug 19
• PRICE: 1.1816 @ 10:21 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 1.1782 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1760 Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1600 round number support

GBPUSD remains soft and the pair traded lower Friday. Thursday’s sell-off resulted in a move below support at 1.2004, Aug 5 low. The break lower strengthens a short-term bearish condition and the focus is on the key support and bear trigger at 1.1760, the Jul 14 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 1.2293, Aug 1 high. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2004.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.8627 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 0.8585 High Jul 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8525 High Jul 25
• RES 1: 0.8512 High Aug 19
• PRICE: 0.8484 @ 06:19 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 0.8447 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8388/40 Low Aug 17 / 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: 0.8278 2.0% 10-dma envelope and low Apr 14

EURGBP rallied Friday and the move higher resulted in a break of 0.8493, the Aug 12 high. This threatens the recent bearish theme and signals scope for an extension higher. The cross is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforcing a developing bullish theme. A continuation higher would open 0.8525, the Jul 25 high. Initial key support has been defined at 0.8388, the Aug 17 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Still Climbing

• RES 4: 139.39 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 3: 138.88 High Jul 21
• RES 2: 137.96 High Jul 22
• RES 1: 137.44 Intraday high
• PRICE: 137.22@ 06:26 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 135.72 Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: 134.84/23 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 132.56/31.74 Low Aug 15 / Low Aug 11
• SUP 4: 130.41/130.00 Low Aug 2 / Round number support

USDJPY extended its bull run Friday and ended the week on a firm note. The pair has traded above resistance at 135.58, Aug 8 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and note that 137.27, 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Aug 2 downleg, has been pierced. A breach of this level would signal scope for a continuation higher. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 134.23.

EURJPY TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 139.78 Trendline resistance drawn from the Jun 28 high
• RES 3: 139.41 High Jul 28
• RES 2: 138.40 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 138.07 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 137.71 @ 06:35 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 136.27/134.95 Low Aug 17 / 16
• SUP 2: 133.40 Low Aug 2 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.66 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 131.99 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Jun 28 bull leg

Despite the climb last week, the short-term outlook in EURJPY remains bearish. Moving average studies highlight a downtrend and the 50-day EMA, at 138.07, marks a firm resistance. A resumption of weakness would open the 133.40 bear trigger. Clearance of resistance at the 50-day EMA would alter the picture and instead signal scope for a climb towards the 139.78 trendline resistance.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.7246 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 0.7176 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 0.7137 High Aug 11
• RES 1: 0.6972/7040 50-day EMA / High Aug 16
• PRICE: 0.6901 @ 06:40 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 0.6859 Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: 0.6789 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 11 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.6719 Low Jul 15
• SUP 4: 0.6682 14 and the bear trigger

AUDUSD traded lower again Friday and remains soft as the pair extends the retracement from 0.7137, the Aug 11 high. The move lower last week has resulted in a print below 0.6870, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the recent bull theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.7040, the Aug 16 high where a break is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

USDCAD TECHS: Breaches Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3135 High Jul 15
• RES 2: 1.3035 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 11 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3019 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2991 @ 10:23 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 1.2881 Low Aug 18
• SUP 2: 1.2828/2756 Low Aug 17 / 200-dma
• SUP 3: 1.2728 Low Aug 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg

USDCAD ended last week on a firm note and traded higher Friday. Attention is on resistance at 1.2985, the Aug 5 high and a key short-term hurdle for bulls. This has been breached, strengthening bullish conditions. This opens 1.3035 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support has been defined at 1.2728, the Aug 11 low where a break would reinstate a bearish threat and also highlight a breach of the 200-dma.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Breaches The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 158.33/159.70 High Aug 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 157.74 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 154.94/156.88 20-day EMA / High Aug 15
• RES 1: 153.79 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 152.28 @ 05:20 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 152.03 Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: 150.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 149.69 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 148.24 Low Jul 1

Bund futures traded lower again Friday, extending the pullback from the Aug 2 high of 159.70. The 50-day EMA which intersects at 153.79, has been cleared. This marked a key support area and the clear break has strengthened bearish conditions and signals scope for a deeper pullback. This opens the 150.00 handle next. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 156.88, Aug 15 high.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 128.060/128.760 High Aug 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 127.580 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 126.489/127.290 20-day EMA / High Aug 15
• RES 1: 126.048 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 125.190 @ 05:20 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 125.050 Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: 125.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 124.350 50.0% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 rally
• SUP 4: 124.030 Low Jul 21 and a reversal trigger

Bobl futures maintain a softer tone and are trading at recent lows. The contract has breached the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 126.048 and the deeper pullback has opened the 125.000 handle next. Note that the contract has also breached a trendline support drawn from the Jun 16 low, reinforcing bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 127.290, the Aug 15 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Maintains A Bearish Tone

• RES 4: 110.380 High Aug 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.100 HIgh Aug 3
• RES 2: 109.694/915 20-day EMA / High Aug 16
• RES 1: 109.616 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 109.345 @ 05:30 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 109.275 Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: 109.042 50.0% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg
• SUP 3: 108.950 Low Jul 21 and a key support
• SUP 4: 108.727 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg

Schatz futures continue to trade below the early August highs and price moved lower again Friday. Last week’s sell-off has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and suggests scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 109.042, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 109.915, the Aug 16 high. A break of this level is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Sharp Sell-Off Extends

• RES 4: 118.88 High Aug 4
• RES 3: 118.10 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 117.15 High Aug 15 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 114.53/115.91 High Aug 18 / 17
• PRICE: 113.09 @ Close Aug 19
• SUP 1: 112.71 Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: 112.24 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg
• SUP 3: 111.72 Low Jun 29
• SUP 4: 110.57 Low Jun 21

Gilt futures remain vulnerable and last week’s sharp sell-off reinforces the current bearish climate. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of trendline support drawn from the Jun 16 low. Attention is on 112.24, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 114.53, Aug 18 high. A firmer level has been defined at 117.15, Aug 15 high, where a break is required to ease the current bearish threat.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Clears Trendline Support

• RES 4: 131.24 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 129.36 High Aug 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 125.49/127.15 50-day EMA / High Aug 17
• PRICE: 123.40 @ Close Aug 19
• SUP 1: 122.93 Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Jul 21 - Aug 11 upleg
• SUP 3: 120.85 Low Jul 22
• SUP 4: 119.57 Low Jul 21 and a key support

BTP futures bearish conditions have strengthened following the sharp sell-off last week. The move lower has resulted in a break below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Furthermore, the move through 124.07 on Friday, confirms a break of trendline support drawn from the Jun 14 low. The clear break has opened 121.88, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at last Wednesday’s high of 127.15.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Bear Cycle In Play

• RES 4: 3877.30 50.0% of the Nov 18 ‘21 - Jul 5 bear leg (cont)
• RES 3: 3855.00 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 3822/40.00 High Aug 17 / High Jun 6 and key resistance zone
• RES 1: 3782.00 High Aug 18
• PRICE: 366600 10-13 EMA
• SUP 2: 3553.00 Low Jul 26
• SUP 3: 3467.00 Low Jul 18 / 19
• SUP 4: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in an uptrend, however, the contract has entered a corrective phase. The move lower Friday marks an extension of the pullback from last week’s 3822.00 high. The 20-day EMA, at 3709.50, has been breached. The clear break signals scope for an extension lower and opens the 50-day EMA at 3650.80. Key resistance has been defined at 3822.00 ahead of 3840. The latter is the Jun 6 high.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 4419.15 2.236 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 3: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4345.75 2.00 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 1: 4288.00/4327.50 High Aug 19 /16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4211.25 @ 06:40 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 4164.93 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4078.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4000.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3913.25 Low Jul 26 and a key support

The S&P E-Minis outlook remains bullish, however, a corrective cycle suggests scope for a pullback near-term. This will allow an overbought reading in momentum studies to unwind - attention is on the 20-day EMA at 4164.93. A breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper pullback, potentially exposing the 50-day EMA, at 4078.40. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 4327.50, the Aug 16 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V2) Still Appears Vulnerable Despite Recent Bounce

• RES 4: $106.50 - High Jul 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $102.41 - High Aug 2 / 3
• RES 2: $100.37/38 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 12
• RES 1: $97.88 High Aug 19
• PRICE: $95.49 @ 06:56 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: $91.22 - Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $90.00 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $88.31 - Low Mar 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $85.88 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures remain vulnerable, despite the recovery from last Wednesday’s low. A key short-term resistance has been defined at $100.38, Aug 12 high and the 50-day EMA intersects just below at $100.37. Attention is on support at $91.22, Jul 14 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and strengthen bearish conditions. Clearance of $100.37/38 is required to highlight a reversal.

WTI TECHS: (U2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $108.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $101.88 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: $95.05/96.18 - High Aug 11 / 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: $92.22 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $89.52 @ 06:37 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: $85.73 - Low Aug 16
• SUP 2: $85.37/00 - Low Mar 15 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $83.51 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $81.34 - 1.618 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures remain vulnerable, despite having bounced from last Wednesday's low. Last week’s move down resulted in a print below support at $87.01, the Aug 5 low. This reinforces bearish conditions and a clear break of $87.01 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Attention is on $85.37, the Mar 15 low and the $85.00 handle. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $95.05, the Aug 11 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Cycle In Play

• RES 4: $1875 7 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 21 bear leg
• RES 3: $1857.6 - High Jun 16
• RES 2: $1829.8 - 38.2% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 21 bear leg
• RES 1: $1781.2/1807.9 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 10 and bull trigger
• PRICE: $1742.9 @ 07:19 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: $1729.5 - 61.8retracement of the Jul 21 - Aug 10 climb
• SUP 2: $1711.7 - Low Jul 27
• SUP 3: $1681.0 - Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold is trading lower, extending the pullback from $1807.9, the Aug 10 high. Recent gains saw price trade above trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high. The break highlighted a potential reversal of the 5-month downtrend. However, the failure to follow through and the breach last week of support at $1754.4 Aug 3 low, signals a failed attempt at clearing the trendline. A deeper pullback would open $1711.7. Key resistance is $1807.9.

SILVER TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: $21.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 2: $20.876 - High Aug 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $19.901 - High Aug 19
• PRICE: $19.017 @ 07:54 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: $18.790- 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 15 bull cycle
• SUP 2: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

Silver is trading at its recent lows. The move lower last week resulted in a break of support at $19.551, Aug 5 low. The break of this level undermines the recent bullish theme and has exposed the key support and bear trigger at $18.146. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $20.876, the Aug 15 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.