MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Remain Soft As Impulsive Bear Leg Extends

Price Signal Summary - Impulsive Bear Leg In S&P E-Minis

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis traded lower late last week and the contract remains soft. The move lower paves the way for a test of 5185.50, 76.4% retracement of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 bull leg. Clearance of this level would signal scope for an extension towards 5092.00, the May 2 low. Today’s intraday high of 5345.50 marks initial resistance. A bear threat in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains present and the contract is trading lower today as it starts the week on a bearish note. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of 4846.00, the Apr 19 low. The breach highlights a stronger reversal and signals scope for an extension towards 4478.81 next, 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing. Firm resistance is 4940.25, the 50-day EMA. First resistance is 4656.00, today’s intraday high.
• In FX, Friday’s strong rally in EURUSD resulted in a break of resistance at 1.0870, the Jul 25 / 29 high. Today’s gains mark an extension of Friday's rally and this has resulted in a break of key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 1.0948, the Jul 17 high. The move higher resumes the uptrend and opens 1.0981 next, the Mar 8 high and an important resistance. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.0778, last Thursday’s low. GBPUSD remains in a bear-mode condition despite Friday’s bounce. Last week’s move down resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA - at 1.2790 - and a breach of a trendline at 1.2765, drawn from the Apr 22 low. The clear break of the EMA and the trendline, suggests scope for an extension towards 1.2672 next, 50.0% of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is at 1.2844, the 50-day EMA. USDJPY remains bearish and last week’s sell-off plus today’s impulsive move lower, reinforces this condition. This opens the next key support at 140.25, the Dec 28 ‘23 low. Note that the pair is in an extreme oversold condition, however a clear reversal pattern / signal in price is required to highlight a change in direction. Initial resistance is seen at 146.66, today’s intraday high.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded higher last week. The recent move down appears to have been a correction. The yellow metal did manage to pierce support at the 50-day EMA - at $2373.2. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $2277.4, the May 3 low and a key support. For bulls, last week’s gains are constructive. Sights are on $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle resumes the uptrend. In the oil space, a bear threat in WTI futures remains present and the contract has traded lower today as it extends the current downtrend. Sights are on the next key support at $72.23, the Jun 4 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would reinforce bearish conditions and pave the way for an extension towards $70.73, the Feb 5 low. Key resistance is seen at $78.88, the Aug 1 high. Short-term gains would allow an oversold condition to unwind.
• In the FI space, a bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract traded higher last week, which resulted in a break of 133.21, the Jun 14 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle and the subsequent impulsive rally reinforces current conditions. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on 136.45, 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont). Initial support is 134.39, the Aug 2 low. Gilt futures traded higher last week, marking a confirmation of the uptrend that started May 29. Note that 99.23, the Jun 21 high, has been cleared. Scope is seen for a climb towards 101.18 next ahead of 101.78, the 2.00 and 2.236 projections of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing. Initial key support lies at 99.23, the Jun 21 high. A pullback would be considered corrective and allow an overbought trend condition to unwind.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 1.1084 High Dec 29
• RES 3: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 2: 1.1012 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 ‘23 - Apr 16 downleg
• RES 1: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.0973 @ 09:39 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 1.0893 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0842 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0821 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support

Friday’s strong rally in EURUSD resulted in a break of resistance at 1.0870, the Jul 25 / 29 high. Today’s gains mark an extension of Friday's rally and this has resulted in a break of key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 1.0948, the Jul 17 high. The move higher resumes the uptrend and opens 1.0981 next, the Mar 8 high and an important resistance. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 1.0778, last Thursday’s low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.3044 High Jul 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2968 High Jul 19
• RES 2: 1.2938 High Jul 24
• RES 1: 1.2844 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2799 @ 06:00 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 1.2707 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2672 50.0 retracement of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2584 50.0 retracement of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle

GBPUSD remains in a bear-mode condition despite Friday’s bounce. Last week’s move down resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA - at 1.2790 - and a breach of a trendline at 1.2765, drawn from the Apr 22 low. The clear break of the EMA and the trendline, suggests scope for an extension towards 1.2672 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is at 1.2844, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Has Cleared Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8621 High May 9
• RES 2: 0.8600 High May 15
• RES 1: 0.8583 76.4% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jul 17 bear leg
• PRICE: 0.8579 @ 10:19 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 0.8499 High Jul 1 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 0.8466 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8441 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8418 Low Aug 1

EURGBP traded higher last week and the cross maintains a firmer tone. The latest rally has resulted in a break of key resistance at 0.8499, the Jul 1 high and a key hurdle for bulls. The break cancels the recent bearish theme and highlights a potential short-term reversal. Today’s strong gains have exposed 0.8583, a Fibonacci retracement. A clear break would open 0.8621, the May 9 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8466, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: In Free Fall

• RES 4: 156.06 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 154.43 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 149.77 High Aug 2
• RES 1: 146.66 Intraday high
• PRICE: 142.71 @ 06:57 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 140.82 Low Jan 2
• SUP 2: 145.90 Low Feb 1
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28

USDJPY remains bearish and last week’s sell-off plus today’s impulsive move lower, reinforces this condition. This paves the way for an extension towards the next key support at 140.25, the Dec 28 ‘23 low. Note that the pair is in an extreme oversold condition, however a clear reversal pattern / signal in price is required to highlight a change in direction. Initial resistance is seen at 146.66, today’s intraday high.

EURJPY TECHS: Impulsive Sell-Off

• RES 4: 168.86 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 167.44 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 162.89 High Aug 1
• RES 1: 160.222 Intraday high 162.89/164.83 High Aug 1 / Low Jul 25
• PRICE: 156.96 @ 08:42 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 154.42 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
• SUP 3: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 151.42 Low Jul 28 ‘23

EURJPY has traded sharply lower today marking an extension of the current impulsive bear cycle. The move down signals scope for an extension towards the next key support level at 153.23, the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A break of this price point would strengthen a bearish theme. Note that the cross is in an extreme oversold position. A recovery would allow this to unwind. Initial resistance is seen at 160.22, today’s intraday high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Testing Key Support

• RES 4: 0.6702 High Jul 22
• RES 3: 0.6630 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6606 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6534 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6449 @ 09:09 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 0.6350 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23 and a key support

A bearish theme is AUDUSD remains intact and the pair has initially traded sharply lower today, before recovering. Price action is volatile. Today’s low print highlights a test of key support at 0.6463, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bearish theme and signal scope for an extension towards 0.6339, the Nov 10 ‘23 low. Initial resistance is at 0.6534, today’s intraday high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 1.4048 High May 22 2020
• RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022
• RES 1: 1.3946 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3872 @ 09:22 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 1.3848 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3776 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3724 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3658 Low Jul 17

Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and recent gains reinforce this theme. The move higher has resulted in a break of key resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 1.3977, the Oct 13 ‘22 high. The pair has pulled back from the intraday high. Note that the trend condition is overbought and a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. First support to watch is 1.3776, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Northbound

• RES 4: 137.26 3.50 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
• RES 3: 136.99 3.382 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
• RES 2: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 136.28 Intraday high
• PRICE: 135.83 @ 07:50 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 134.39 Low Aug 2
• SUP 2: 132.84 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 132.23/131.62 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22 and a key support
• SUP 4: 131.39 Low Jul 15

A bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract traded higher last week, which resulted in a break of 133.21, the Jun 14 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle and the subsequent impulsive rally reinforces current conditions. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on 136.45, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support is 134.39, the Aug 2 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Impulsive Rally

• RES 4: 120.000 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 119.730 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 2: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 1: 119.090 Intraday high
• PRICE: 118.620 @ 10:14 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 117.880/117.022 Low Jul 31 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 116.320 Low Jul 22
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11
• SUP 4: 115.530 Low Jul and the key short-term support

Bobl futures traded higher last week. This resulted in a break of key resistance at the Jun 14 high of 117.160. A medium-term bull cycle remains in play and the clear breach of 117.160, plus the subsequent impulsive rally, reinforces current conditions. Today’s initial gains marks an extension of the bull cycle and sights are on 119.234, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 117.022, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Heading North

• RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 1: 106.810 Intraday high
• PRICE: 106.555 @ 10:19 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 106.235/899 Low Jul 31 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 105.630 Low Jul 22
• SUP 3: 105.495 Low Jul 11
• SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support

The current uptrend in Schatz futures remains intact. The contract has recently traded through resistance at 105.975, the Jun 14 high. The clear break of this hurdle confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 24. Sights are on 106.916, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 105.899, the 20-day EMA, and 105.630, the Jul 22 low. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would be seen as a bearish development.

GILT TECHS: (U4) Uptrend Accelerates

• RES 4: 102.15 2.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 102.00 Roun number resistance
• RES 2: 101.78 2.236 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 101.18 2.00 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• PRICE: 100.55 @ Close BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 99.23 High Jun 21
• SUP 2: 98.66/97.46 20-day EMA / Low Jul 26
• SUP 3: 96.96 Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: 96.57 Low Jul 1 and a key support

Gilt futures traded higher last week, marking a confirmation of the uptrend that started May 29. Note that 99.23, the Jun 21 high, has been cleared. Scope is seen for a climb towards 101.18 next ahead of 101.78,, Fibonacci projection points. Initial key support lies at 99.23, the Jun 21 high. A pullback would be considered corrective and allow an overbought trend condition to unwind.

BTP TECHS: (U4) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 120.85 2.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 120.20 2.00 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 2: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 119.57 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 119.20 @ 08:35 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 117.94/37 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 116.07 Low Jul 8
• SUP 3: 114.72 Low Jul 2
• SUP 4: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support

BTP futures traded higher last week. The medium-term trend remains positive following recent strong gains. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards the 120.00 handle next. Initial firm support is seen at 118.05, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 117.44 A clear break of both averages would instead highlight a bearish threat and a potential reversal.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 116-00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 115-30+ 2.764 proj of the Apr 25 - May 16 - 29 price swing
• RES 2: 115-17 2.618 proj of the Apr 25 - May 16 - 29 price swing
• RES 1: 115-01+ Intraday high High Aug 2
• PRICE: 114-17+ @ 10:50 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 112-21/01+ Low Aug 2 / 1
• SUP 2: 111-23/110-27+ 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 109-17+ Low Jul 5
• SUP 4: 109-04 Trendline drawn from the Apr 25 low

Treasuries traded sharply higher last week and remain firm. Furthermore, today’s gains reinforce the current bullish condition. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too and the recent breach of 111-01, the Jun 14 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 25. Scope is seen for a climb towards 115-17, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support lies at 112-21, Friday’s intrada low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Bearish Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 4940.25 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 4885.77 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 4770.00 High Aug 2
• RES 1: 4656.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4718.00 @ 10:41 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 4494.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 4424.64 61.8% of the Oct 27 ‘23 - May 16 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 4: 4502.00 Low Jan 24 (cont)

A bear threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and the contract is trading lower today as it starts the week on a bearish note. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of 4846.00, the Apr 19 low. The breach highlights a stronger reversal and signals scope for an extension towards 4478.81 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is 4940.25, the 50-day EMA. First resistance is 4656.00, today’s intraday high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and Key resistance
• RES 3: 5600.75 High Aug 1
• RES 2: 5494.20 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 5345.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4243.75 @ 10:33 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 5201.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 5185 50.76.4% retracement of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 bull leg
• SUP 3: 5092.00 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 5020 Low Apr 19 and a key support

S&P E-Minis traded lower late last week and the contract is starting this week’s session on a bearish note as the current sell-off extends. The move lower paves the way for a test of 5185.50, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would signal scope for an extension towards 5092.00, the May 2 low. Today’s intraday high of 5345.50 marks initial resistance. The 50-day EMA, a firmer level, is at 5494.20.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V4) Oversold But Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $88.44 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $87.05 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $84.66 - High Jul 18
• RES 1: $77.95/82.05 - Low Jul 30 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $75.83 @ 07:05 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: $74.96 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: $73.31 - Low Dec 13 2023 and a key support
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $67.60 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing

A bear cycle in Brent futures remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded through a key support at 76.42, the Jun 4 low. This signals scope for a continuation lower with sights on $74.96 next, the Feb 5 low. The contract is oversold, however any short-term bounce would be considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is seen at $82.05, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (U4) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: $84.36 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $83.58 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $82.27 - High Jul 18
• RES 1: $74.59/78.88 - Low Jul 30 / High Aug 1
• PRICE: $72.23 @ 10:37 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: $71.67 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $70.73 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $69.16 - Low Dec 13 2023
• SUP 4: $67.37 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing

A bear threat in WTI futures remains present and the contract has traded lower today as it extends the current downtrend. Sights are on the next key support at $72.23, the Jun 4 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would reinforce bearish conditions and pave the way for an extension towards $70.73, the Feb 5 low. Key resistance is seen at $78.88, the Aug 1 high. Short-term gains would allow an oversold condition to unwind.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $2483.7 - High Jul 17 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $2829.2 @ 09:25 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: $2405.4/2353.2 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 4: $2228.6 - Low Apr 1

Gold has traded higher last week. The recent move down appears to have been a correction. The yellow metal did manage to pierce support at the 50-day EMA - at $2373.2. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $2277.4, the May 3 low and a key support. For bulls, lastweek’s gains are constructive. Sights are on $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle resumes the uptrend.