MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Trend Remains Bearish
Price Signal Summary – Stocks Trend Remains Bearish
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and fresh cycle lows last week reinforced current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend. The medium-term trend direction in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. However, note that support at the 50-day EMA, at 5314.94, has been pierced.
- GBPUSD is trading in a tight range and remains closer to its recent highs. The trend outlook is bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and the latest recovery appears corrective. A fresh cycle low on Mar 11 strengthens a bearish theme. The move down resulted in a print below 146.95, 61.8% of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains intact, and moving average studies reinforce this condition - they remain in a bull-mode position. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a test of the short-term bull trigger at 1.4543.
- A clear uptrend in Gold remains intact and last week’s move higher reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal traded to a fresh all-time high and price has also pierced the psychological $3000 handle. A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective - for now. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15.
- Bund futures remain in consolidation mode for now. The contract is trading closer to its recent lows and a bearish theme remains intact. A recent impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 126.28 next. The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish. Recent gains appear corrective and the move lower last week, signals the end of the corrective cycle. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Theme Intact
- RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024
- RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0947 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 1.0879 @ 16:26 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 1.0766/1.0674 Low Mar 6 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0557 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0471 Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support
Trend conditions in EURUSD remain bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Bulls have their sights on 1.0961 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would strengthen the current uptrend. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0557, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback would allow this set-up to unwind.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 3: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.2988 High Mar 12
- PRICE: 1.2935 @ 06:32 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 1.2862 Low Mar 12
- SUP 2: 1.2778 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2656 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 4: 1.2556 Low Feb 28
GBPUSD is trading in a tight range and remains closer to its recent highs. The trend outlook is bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. The pair has recently pierced a Fibonacci retracement at 1.2924, 61.8% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. A clear break of this price point would open 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. Initial firm support is 1.2656, the 50-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8450 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 0.8411 @ 06:52 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 0.8369/8342 Low Mar 14 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play and Friday’s bullish engulfing candle pattern signals a resumption of the trend and the end of the recent corrective pullback. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8342, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a continuation higher and a break of 0.8450, the Mar 11 high, would open 0.8474, the Jan 20 high and the next key resistance. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions.
USDJPY TECHS: Shallow Correction
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 151.45 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 150.18/151.30 High Mar 5 / 3 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 149.46 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 148.97 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 146.54 Low Mar 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 145.43 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 145.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and the latest recovery appears corrective. A fresh cycle low on Mar 11 strengthens a bearish theme. The move down resulted in a print below 146.95, 61.8% of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. This opens 145.92 next, the Oct 4 2024 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 151.30, Mar 3 high.
EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Structure
- RES 4: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 3: 164.08 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 162.70 High Jan 28
- RES 1: 162.36 High Mar 12
- PRICE: 162.10 @ 07:09 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 159.50 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 158.74 Low May 5
- SUP 3: 155.60 Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 154.80 Low Feb 28 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle in EURJPY remains in play and the cross is trading just ahead of last week’s cycle high. Price has recently breached a resistance at 161.19, the Feb 13 high. A clear break of the hurdle strengthens a bullish condition and opens 162.70 next, the Jan 28 high. On the downside, initial support to watch is 159.50 the 20-day EMA. Key support has been defined at 154.80, the Feb 28 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6364 High Mar 6
- PRICE: 0.6338 @ 07:54 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 0.6259/6187 Low Mar 11 / Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
A short-term bullish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and sights are on the key resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle. On the downside, a move below key short-term support at 0.6187, the Mar 4 low, is required to reinstate a bear threat. This would open the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of the Feb 3 low would resume the medium-term downtrend.
USDCAD TECHS: MA Studies Are In A Bull-Mode Position
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4543 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4363 @ 08:00 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains intact, and moving average studies reinforce this condition - they remain in a bull-mode position. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a test of the short-term bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would instead expose key short-term support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19
- RES 3: 129.96 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 129.41 Low Jan 14
- RES 1: 128.33/129.27 High Mar 10 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 127.27 @ 05:57 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 126.53 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 126.28 2.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 123.36 3.00 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
Bund futures remain in consolidation mode for now. The contract is trading closer to its recent lows and a bearish theme remains intact. A recent impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 126.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 126.00 is also within range. Note that the contract is still in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low.
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 118.310 Low Mar 3
- RES 3: 118.090 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 117.850 Low Feb 20
- RES 1: 117.316 38.2% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off
- PRICE: 116.860 @ 06:09 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 116.250 Low Mar 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 116.202 3.764 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
Bobl futures are in consolidation mode and price is trading closer to its recent lows. A bear threat remains in play. Former support at 117.850, the Feb 20 low, has recently been cleared. The sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 116.000. The contract is still in oversold territory. Gains would be considered corrective and a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is seen at 117.850, the Feb 20 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Corrective Gains
- RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance
- RES 3: 106.905 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 106.847 61.8% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 106.762 50.0% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- PRICE: 106.680 @ 06:17 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 106.530/405 Low Mar 10 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.350 2.000% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 3: 106.259 2.236% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 4: 106.203 2.382% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
A bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact with price still trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of key support at 106.735, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, towards 106.350 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The trend is oversold and the latest bounce is allowing this to unwind. First resistance is 106.762, a Fibonacci retracement.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 1: 92.28/63 20-day EMA / High Mar 7 and a key resistance
- PRICE: 91.90 @ Close Mar 14
- SUP 1: 91.07/90.71 Low Mar 13 / 6
- SUP 2: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 89.71 2.000 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish. Recent gains appear corrective and the move lower last week, signals the end of the corrective cycle. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represented a bear trigger and the breach signals scope for a continuation lower, with sights on 90.49 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 92.63, Mar 5 high.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5
- RES 1: 116.98/117.79 High Mar 7 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 116.17 @ Close Mar 14
- SUP 1: 115.75 Low Mar 14
- SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
BTP futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low last week. The latest move down has resulted in a breach of key support at 116.78, the Jan 14 low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and opens 115.52 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.56, the Mar 5 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5611.50 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 3: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5409.47/5575.00 20-day EMA / High Mar 3 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5397.00 @ 06:42 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 5284.00 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 5249.00 Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: 5202.00 50.0% retracement of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Mar 3 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5185.00 Low Feb 4
The medium-term trend direction in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. However, note that support at the 50-day EMA, at 5314.94, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5202.00, a Fibonacci retracement. A resumption of gains would open the 5600.00 handle.
E-MINI S&P: (M5) Oversold But Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 5976.83 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 5864.25 Low Jan 13 and a recent breakout level
- RES 2: 5859.54 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 5726.75 High Mar 12
- PRICE: 5654.75 @ 07:25 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 5559.75 Low Mar 13
- SUP 2: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 3: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5341.87 2.382 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and fresh cycle lows last week reinforced current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 5483.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold, a corrective bounce would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5976.83, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (K5) Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: $79.98 - High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: $76.78 - High Feb 11 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $73.15 - 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance
- RES 1: $71.92 - Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $71.18 @ 07:08 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: $68.33 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $67.87 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $66.36 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 2.000 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
Short-term gains in Brent futures appear corrective. The trend condition is unchanged and the direction remains down. The latest sell-off resulted in the breach of a number of support points and price has delivered a break of the $70.00 handle. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $67.87, the Sep 10 2024 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is unchanged at $73.15, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (J5) Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $77.86 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $73.33 - High Feb 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: $69.86 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $68.37 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $67.75 @ 07:17 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: $65.22 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $63.61 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $58.01 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 6 - 11 price swing
A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective - for now. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key pivot resistance is $69.86, the 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Has Pierced The $3000 Psychological Handle
- RES 4: $3056.8 - 2.500 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $3034.5 - 2.382 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 2: $3006.9 - 2.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- PRICE: $2988.7 @ 07:22 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: $2913.9/2845.7 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28 and key support
- SUP 3: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27
A clear uptrend in Gold remains intact and last week’s move higher reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal traded to a fresh all-time high and price has also pierced the psychological $3000 handle. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on $3006.9 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key S/T trend support has been defined at $2832.7, Feb 28 low.
SILVER TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.548 - High Oct 29 ‘24
- RES 1: $34.081 - High Mar 14
- PRICE: $33.933 @ 08:09 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: $32.526 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $31.867/30.815 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 28 and key support
- SUP 3: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 4: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and a bear trigger
Silver traded higher last week and in the process cleared key resistance at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19 and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This signals scope for a climb towards $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a medium-term bull trigger. Key trend support has been defined at $30.814, the Feb 28 low.