MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Trend Direction in USD/JPY Remains Down

Price Signal Summary – Trend Direction in USD/JPY Remains Down

• S&P E-Minis are trading higher. Price has breached resistance at 4073.75, Mar 22 high. The contract is also once again trading above the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 4023.39. The break of 4073.75 strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 4119.50, the Mar 6 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Thursday. The contract has cleared resistance at 4164.00, the Mar 22 high. This cancels a recent bearish threat and confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Mar 20.
• GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone for now and the pair has traded higher again today. Price has breached resistance at 1.2401, the Feb 2 high and attention is on 1.2448, the Jan 23 high. The latter is a key medium-term hurdle for bulls. The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and this week’s gains are considered corrective. The 50-day EMA has been tested, it intersects at 133.36 and represents a key short-term hurdle for bulls. The AUDUSD trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish - recent gains, since Mar 10, still appear to be a correction. The 20-day EMA has been breached but resistance at the 50-day EMA remains intact.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. Note that price action since Mar 20 appears to be a pennant - a continuation pattern. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. WTI futures continue to trade at this week’s highs. Price has breached resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at $72.80. The break is a short-term bullish development and a continuation higher would expose the 50-day EMA, at $74.94.
• Bund futures remain soft and traded lower Thursday as the contract extended the pullback from 139.54, Mar 24 high. Price has breached a key support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 135.53. It represents an important pivot level and the break strengthens a bearish threat. Gilt futures traded lower again Thursday and the contract maintains a bearish short-term tone. This week’s move down has resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.71.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching A Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022
• RES 3: 1.1033 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0940 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 1.0926/0930 High Mar 30 / 23
• PRICE: 1.0904 @ 05:43 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: 1.0818 Low Mar 29
• SUP 2: 1.0736/13 20-day EMA / Low Mar 24
• SUP 3: 1.0693 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0608 Low Mar 17

EURUSD traded higher Thursday and price is approaching initial resistance at 1.0930, the Mar 23 high. This level represents a key short-term hurdle for bulls and a break would reinstate the recent bull theme and signal scope for a climb towards 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.0752 (20-day EMA) and 1.0701 (50-day EMA). A move through this support zone would be bearish and expose 1.0516 on Mar 15.

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2558 High Jun 9 2022
• RES 3: 1.2524 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2448 High Jan 23 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2423 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2391 @ 06:09 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: 1.2204 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2191 Low Mar 24
• SUP 3: 1.2140 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2011 Low Mar 15

GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone for now and the pair has traded higher again today. Price has breached resistance at 1.2401, the Feb 2 high and attention is on 1.2448, the Jan 23 high. The latter is a key medium-term hurdle for bulls. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 1.2203, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be seen as a short-term bearish development.

EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8881 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 1: 0.8829 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 0.8800 @ 06:28 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: 0.8771 Low Mar 28
• SUP 2: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP remains in consolidation mode and the cross continues to trade below 0.8866, the Mar 23 high. Recent gains, between Mar 15 - 23, highlight a bullish picture and attention is on a key short-term trendline resistance at 0.8881. The trendline is drawn from the Feb 3 high and a break would strengthen bullish conditions. Key support to watch is unchanged at 0.8719, Mar 15 low. Clearance of this level would instead reinstate a bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 3: 134.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 2: 133.77 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 133.51 Intraday high
• PRICE: 132.98 @ 06:51 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: 130.76 Low Mar 29
• SUP 2: 129.64 Low Mar 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and this week’s gains are considered corrective. The 50-day EMA has been tested, it intersects at 133.36 and represents a key short-term hurdle for bulls. A clear break, if seen, would alter the S/T picture and suggest scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 133.77, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the bear trigger has been defined at 129.64. A break would resume the downtrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Maintains This Week’s Bullish Theme

• RES 4: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 3: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 2: 146.73 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 145.80 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 downleg
• PRICE: 144.78 @ 07:11 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: 143.63 High Mar 22
• SUP 2: 142.66 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 141.79 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 141.05 Low Mar 28

EURJPY has traded higher today and maintains this week’s bullish theme. The cross has pierced key resistance at 145.57, the Mar 2 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and pave the way for gains above 146.00, towards 146.73, the Dec 15 high. Momentum studies remain in a bull-mode set-up highlighting a likely uptrend. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 142.66, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6784 High Mar 1
• RES 1: 0.6753 50-day EMA and a key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6705 @ 07:59 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: 0.6625 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

The AUDUSD trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish - recent gains, since Mar 10, still appear to be a correction. The 20-day EMA has been breached but resistance at the 50-day EMA remains intact. The average intersects at 0.6753. A clear breach of it would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 3: 1.3805/3862 High Mar 24 / 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3745 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 1.3593/3649 50- and 20-day EMA values
• PRICE: 1.3540 @ 08:04 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: 1.3517/15 100-dma / Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 1.3491 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21
• SUP 4: 1.3404 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally

The current bear cycle in USDCAD remains in play and the pair continues to weaken. This week’s bearish extension has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and 1.3562, the 50% retracement for the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally. The move lower signals scope for a continuation towards 1.3491, the 61.8% retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3649, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 137.85/139.54 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 136.77 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 135.33 @ 05:07 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: 134.76 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 133.33 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally

Bund futures remain soft and traded lower Thursday as the contract extended the pullback from 139.54, Mar 24 high. Price has breached a key support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 135.53. It represents an important pivot level and the break strengthens a bearish threat. 134.80, the Mar 22 low, has been tested. A breach of this level would open 134.15, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 136.77, Thursday’s high.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Testing Support

• RES 4: 121.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 120.610 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 119.170/120.130 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 118.640 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 117.590 @ 05:18 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: 117.280 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally

Bobl futures continue to weaken. Note that an important pivot support has been breached at 117.762 which is the 20-day EMA. Additionally, support at 117.300, the Mar 22 low, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen current bearish conditions and open 116.980, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 118.640, Thursday’s high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 107.110 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 106.955 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 2: 106.315/695 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 106.095 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 105.645 @ 05:33 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: 105.510 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

Schatz futures traded lower Thursday, breaching a key support at 105.715, the 20-day EMA. Price has also traded through support at 105.575, the Mar 22, where a clear break would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 105.336, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 106.955, the Mar 20 high. Initial resistance is seen at 106.095, Thursday’s high.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Maintains A Bearish Short-Term Tone

• RES 4: 107.33 High Mar 20
• RES 3: 105.62 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 105.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 104.47 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 103.96 @ Close Mar 29
• SUP 1: 103.13 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 102.84 Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 4: 102.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded lower again Thursday and the contract maintains a bearish short-term tone. This week’s move down has resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.71. The average represents an important short-term support and a clear break would signal scope for a continuation lower near-term, towards 102.84 initially, the Mar 22 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 104.47, Thursday’s intraday high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Testing Support

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.08 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 114.56 @ Close Mar 30
• SUP 1: 114.05 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 113.71 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 113.22 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures continue to trade below 117.17, the Mar 24 high and the contract traded lower Thursday. The short-term outlook is bullish and the recent pullback still appears corrective. However, price has traded through support at 114.68, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a continuation lower and open 13.71, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 116.08, Thursday’s high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Heading North

• RES 4: 4324.50 High Jan 13 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4268.00 High Mar 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 4243.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 41233.00 @ 06:20 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: 4175.00/4107.50 Low Mar 30 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 4000.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3914.00 Low Mar 20

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Thursday. The contract has cleared resistance at 4164.00, the Mar 22 high. This cancels a recent bearish threat and confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Mar 20. A continuation higher would open key resistance at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this suggests the broader uptrend is intact. Initial firm support lies at 4034.00, the Mar 24 low.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Still Climbing

• RES 4: 4205.50 High Feb 16
• RES 3: 4148.48 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg
• RES 2: 4119.50 High Mar 6
• RES 1: 4094.25 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4085.00 @ 07:15 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: 4012.49 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3937.00/3897.25 Low Mar 24 / 20
• SUP 3: 3839.25 Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: 3822.00 Low Dec 22 and a key support

S&P E-Minis are trading higher. Price has breached resistance at 4073.75, Mar 22 high. The contract is also once again trading above the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 4023.39. The break of 4073.75 strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 4119.50, the Mar 6 high. Key short-term support lies at 3937.00, the Mar 24 low. A break of this support would be bearish. Initial support lies at 4012.49, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $83.47 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $82.37 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 20 downleg
• RES 2: $80.19 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $79.68 - High Mar 29
• PRICE: $78.37 @ 07:06 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: $75.21 - Trendline drawn from the Mar 20 low
• SUP 2: $72.35/70.06 - Low Mar 24 / Low Mar 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures are trading at this week’s highs and maintain a bullish tone. Price has breached the 20-day EMA which intersects at $78.02. This average represented a key short-term resistance and the break strengthens current bullish conditions, signalling scope for a continuation higher. The next key resistance is $80.19, the 50-day EMA. Initial firm support lies at $72.35, the Mar 24 low. A break would be bearish.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: $81.04 - High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $78.17 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $77.10 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 20 downleg
• RES 1: $74.94 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $74.20 @ 07:09 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: $69.89 Trendline drawn from the Mar 20 low
• SUP 2: $66.82/64.36 - Low Mar 24 / 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.19 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing

WTI futures continue to trade at this week’s highs. Price has breached resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at $72.80. The break is a short-term bullish development and a continuation higher would expose the 50-day EMA, at $74.94. This average represents the next key resistance point. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $66.82, the Mar 24 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2009.7 - High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1981.8 @ 07:22 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: $1933.3 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1918.3 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: $1893.4 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. Note that price action since Mar 20 appears to be a pennant - a continuation pattern. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. The recent test above $2000.0 opens $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. $1918.3 marks a firm support, the Mar 17 low - a break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Extension

• RES 4: $25.293 - High Apr 20 2022
• RES 3: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 2: $24.637 - High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $24.000 - Round number resistance
• PRICE: $23.881 @ 08:13 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: $22.828 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 2: $22.254 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $21.474 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: $20.591 - Low Mar 13

Silver remains firm and the metal traded to a fresh trend high Thursday. The break higher strengthens bullish conditions and maintains the current price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This has opened $24.637, the Feb 2 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $22.828, the Mar 28 low, ahead of the 50-day EMA which intersects at $22.254.