MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Trend Signals in Crude Remain Bearish

Price Signal Summary – Trend Signals in Crude Remain Bearish

• S&P E-Minis have remained above the Jan 5 low and the contract traded higher last week. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend and open 4854.75, a Fibonacci projection. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in consolidation mode. The primary trend direction is up and the recent move lower is considered corrective. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a rising trend cycle.
• EURUSD remains inside its recent range. Support at 1.0923, a trendline drawn from the Nov 1 low remains intact and moving average studies are in a bull mode position. This highlights an uptrend and suggests the recent move lower has been a correction. A short-term bear threat in EURGBP remains present and gains are considered corrective. The recent break of the 50-day EMA strengthens a bearish theme and a continuation lower would open 0.8571, the Dec 15 low, ahead of key support at 0.8549. EURJPY traded sharply higher last week and the cross maintains a firmer tone. The recent rally strengthened a short-term bullish theme and resulted in a break of resistance at 158.57, the Dec 19 high.
• Gold is trading above last week’s low of $2013.4 (Jan 11). Price is also trading ahead of key support at $2015.2 the 50-day EMA. A breach of both support points would expose key support at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. Trend signals in WTI futures remain bearish and the pullback from Friday’s high reinforces this theme. Resistance to watch is $74.44, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme and expose $76.18.
• Bund futures are consolidating but maintain a softer tone. The recent move below the 20-day EMA highlights scope for a deeper correction, opening key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37. Momentum studies are pointing south, highlighting the short-term bearish threat. Gilt futures are consolidating, maintaining a softer tone and recent price action appears to be a bear flag - a bearish continuation pattern. The recent breach of the 20-day EMA, also suggests scope for a continuation of the current bear cycle.

EURUSD TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact, For Now

• RES 4: 1.1139 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1077 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Jan 5 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• PRICE: 1.0965 @ 05:49 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 1.0923/0877 Trendline from the Nov 1 low / Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 1.0793 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0724 Low Dec 8
• SUP 4: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg

EURUSD remains inside its recent range. Support at 1.0923, a trendline drawn from the Nov 1 low remains intact and moving average studies are in a bull mode position. This highlights an uptrend and suggests the recent move lower has been a correction. A recent golden cross in the DMA space (50- rising above the 200-dma), is also a bullish signal. Support to watch is 1.0877, the Jan 5 low. The bull trigger is 1.1139, Dec 28 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2753 @ 06:04 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 1.2611/2610 Low Jan 03 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 1.2449 Low Nov 22
• SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17

The trend outlook in GBPUSD is unchanged and remains bullish. Price continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Sights are on resistance at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high and a bull trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.2881, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support is at 1.2611, the Jan 2 low. The 50-day EMA lies just below at 1.2610. Clearance of both support points would highlight a short-term top.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20
• RES 3: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 0.8640 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8596 @ 06:28 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 0.8586 Low Jan 12
• SUP 2: 0.8571 Low Dec 15
• SUP 3: 0.8549 Low Dec 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 5

A short-term bear threat in EURGBP remains present and gains are considered corrective. The recent break of the 50-day EMA strengthens a bearish theme and a continuation lower would open 0.8571, the Dec 15 low, ahead of key support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 0.8715, the Dec 28 high. The 50-day EMA, at 0.8640, is the initial firm resistance to watch.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain IN The Driver’s Seat For Now

• RES 4: 149.16 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg
• RES 3: 148.51 High Nov 30
• RES 2: 147.32 High Dec 7
• RES 1: 146.59 High Dec 11
• PRICE: 145.26 @ 06:42 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 143.42 Low Jan 9 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 141.86 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 139.11 2.236 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing

USDJPY traded higher last week resulting in a break of resistance at 145.97, the Jan 5 high. The move higher undermines a recent bearish theme and instead highlights potential scope for a continuation higher. This has opened 147.32, the Dec 7 high. A key short-term support has been defined at 143.42, the Jan 9 low. A break of this level is required to instead signal a top and highlight a resumption of bearish activity.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 163.72 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 162.25 High Nov 29
• RES 2: 161.69 76.4% retracement of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg
• RES 1: 160.18 High Jan 11
• PRICE: 159.24 @ 06:52 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 157.21 Low Jan 9 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: 155.08/153.23 Low Jan 02 / Dec 07 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support

EURJPY traded sharply higher last week and the cross maintains a firmer tone. The recent rally strengthened a short-term bullish theme and resulted in a break of resistance at 158.57, the Dec 19 high. Note too that the 50-day EMA has also been cleared and 160.07, 61.8% of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would open 161.69, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support lies at 157.21, the Jan 9 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Ahead Of Support

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• PRICE: 0.6669 @ 07:57 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 0.6641 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 0.6628 Trendline support drawn from the Oct 26 low
• SUP 3: 0.6571 50.0% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec Upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6526 Low Dec 7 and key support

AUDUSD remains in consolidation mode. The recent move lower still appears to be a correction and medium-term trend directional signals continue to point north. Moving average studies highlight an uptrend and trendline support - at 0.6628 - drawn from the late October low, remains intact. The trendline represents an important support. On the upside key resistance is unchanged at 0.6871, the Dec 28 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3538 50.0% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3480 200-dma
• RES 2: 1.3455 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3443 High Jan 11
• PRICE: 1.3409 @ 08:02 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 1.3288/3177 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 27
• SUP 2: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.3055 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull phase

USDCAD traded higher last Thursday, building on recent gains. The broader trend outlook is unchanged and remains bearish. Tthe latest recovery is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3455. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and open 1.3480, the 200-dma. For bears, a reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and attention would turn to 1.3177, the Dec 27 low and bear trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 139.39 3.764 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 137.96/138.84 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 135.95 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 135.59 @ 05:19 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 134.87 Low Jan 10
• SUP 2: 134.37 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 133.42 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 132.89 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase

Bund futures are consolidating but maintain a softer tone. The recent move below the 20-day EMA highlights scope for a deeper correction, opening key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37. Momentum studies are pointing south, highlighting the short-term bearish threat. On the upside, a resumption of gains would open 138.84, the Dec 27 high and a bull trigger. Initial resistance is at 135.95, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24 (cont)
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 119.640/830 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 118.640 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 118.370 @ 05:25 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 117.900 Low Jan 10 / 11
• SUP 2: 117.822/800 50-day EMA / Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 117.510 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 117.060 Low Dec 1

A bearish corrective cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The recent move through the 20-day EMA highlights potential for a deeper pullback, exposing 117.800, Dec 8 low, Note that the 50-day EMA lies at 117.822. Clearance of both support points would strengthen a bearish threat. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 119.830, the Dec 27 high. A break would resume the uptrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Short-Term Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 106.774 1.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.698 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.640 High Dec 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.270/360 High Jan 5 and 12 / Low Jan 3
• PRICE: 106.200 @ 05:39 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 105.935 Low Jan 11
• SUP 2: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 105.730 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 105.660 High Nov 17

A bear threat in Schatz futures remains, despite the gap higher Friday. Key short-term support at 105.955, the Dec 13 low, was breached last week. This strengthens the current bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 105.780 next, the Dec 1 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 106.270, the Jan 5 / 12 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would ease bearish pressure.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Bear Flag

• RES 4: 103.94 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 103.33 High Dec 29
• RES 2: 101.98 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 100.69 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 100.15 @ Close Jan 12
• SUP 1: 99.60 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 98.97 High Dec 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 97.39 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 96.67 Low Dec 5

Gilt futures are consolidating, maintaining a softer tone and recent price action appears to be a bear flag - a bearish continuation pattern. The recent breach of the 20-day EMA, also suggests scope for a continuation of the current bear cycle. This has exposed support at 98.97, the Dec 6 high. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 101.98, the Jan 3 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.77 High Jan 4
• PRICE: 118.86 @ Close Jan 12
• SUP 1: 117.24 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 116.27 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.18 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle

The recent move down in BTP futures appears to be a correction. However, price has recently traded through support around the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for a continuation lower near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA at 116.27 - a key support. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 119.77, the Jan 4 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 121.43, the Dec 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Watching Support

• RES 4: 4697.50 1.382 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 4599.00/4634.00 High Jan 2 / High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4517.00 @ 05:56 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 4448.80/4444.0 50-day EMA and a key support / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: 4370.00 Low Nov 28
• SUP 3: 4334.00 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 - Dec 14 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4220.00 Low Nov 10

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in consolidation mode. The primary trend direction is up and the recent move lower is considered corrective. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a rising trend cycle. Key S/T support is 4448.80, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 4370.00, the Nov 28 low. For bulls, the trigger for a resumption of the uptrend is 4634.00, the Dec 14 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Bull Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4915.11 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4900.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4854.75 1.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4841.50 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4820.75 @ 06:49 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 4702.00 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 4690.70 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 3: 4679.50 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4594.00 Low Nov 30

S&P E-Minis have remained above the Jan 5 low and the contract traded higher last week. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend and open 4854.75, a Fibonacci projection. Support at the 20-day EMA of 4770.92 has recently been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish threat and open the 50-day EMA, at 4679.50.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H4) Trend Signals Point South

• RES 4: $86.50 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $84.22 - High Nov 30
• RES 1: $80.75/81.45 - High Jan 12 / High Dec 26 and key resistance
• PRICE: $78.30 @ 06:58 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: $74.79 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $72.67/71.21 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.84 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

Brent futures failed to hold on to Friday’s high and price remains below key short-term resistance at $81.45, Dec 26 high. The outlook is bearish and moving average studies continue to highlight a downtrend. This suggests that the Dec 13 - 26 recovery was a correction. Attention is on $72.67, the Dec 13 low and bear trigger. Clearance of $81.45 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

WTI TECHS: (G4) Moving Average Studies Highlight A Downtrend

• RES 4: $84.18 - High Oct 24
• RES 3: $82.64 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $79.67 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $74.44/76.18 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $72.73 @ 07:04 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: $69.28 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $67.98 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $65.24 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.79 - 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 6 - Oct 20 price swing

Trend signals in WTI futures remain bearish and the pullback from Friday’s high reinforces this theme. Resistance to watch is $74.44, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme and expose $76.18, the Dec 26 high. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is $67.98, Dec 13 low.

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 2: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $2064.0/2088.5 - High Jan 5 / High Dec 28
• PRICE: $2054.9 @ 07:21 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: $2015.2/20134 - 50-day EMA / Low Jan 11
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold is trading above last week’s low of $2013.4 (Jan 11). Price is also trading ahead of key support at $2015.2 the 50-day EMA. A breach of both support points, would expose key support at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. For bulls, clearance of $2088.5 would reinstate the bull cycle that started Dec 13. This would open $2097.1, 76.4% of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg, ahead of key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.4.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $23.504 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $23.269 @ 07:27 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: $22.476 - Low Jan 11
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver traded lower last Thursday before recovering. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of a trendline drawn from the Oct 5 low. This highlights a bearish threat and exposes key support at $22.510, Dec 13 low. This level was pierced last week, a clear break of it would open $21.883, Nov 13 low. Key short-term resistance is $24.606, Dec 22 high. A move above this level would reinstate a bullish theme.