MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/CAD Rally Deemed Corrective at Current Levels

Price Signal Summary – USD/CAD Rally Deemed Corrective at Current Levels

• S&P E-Minis remain above last Friday’s low and the contract has traded higher this week. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend and open 4854.75, a Fibonacci projection. Eurostoxx 50 futures are consolidating. The primary trend direction remains up and the recent move lower is considered corrective. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a rising trend cycle.
• EURJPY traded sharply higher Wednesday and maintains a firmer tone. The rally strengthens a short-term bullish theme and has resulted in a clear break of resistance at 158.57, the Dec 19 high. Note too that the 50-day EMA has also been cleared. AUDUSD is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. The recent move lower appears to be a correction and the medium-term trend directional signals point north. Moving average studies also highlight an uptrend and trendline support - at 0.6621 - drawn from the late October low. USDCAD traded higher Thursday, building on recent gains. The broader trend outlook is unchanged and remains bearish and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3457.
• Gold is trading closer to its recent lows following the pullback from $2088.5, the Dec 28 high. Price is also trading ahead of key support at $2013.2 the 50-day EMA. A break of this level, if seen, would expose key support at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. Trend conditions in WTI futures are unchanged and the directional signals remain bearish. Resistance to watch is $74.51, the 50-day EMA. The average was briefly pierced late December. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal.
• Bund futures maintain a softer tone and the contract traded to a fresh short-term low on Wednesday. The recent move below the 20-day EMA risks a deeper correction, opening key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37. Gilt futures are consolidating and maintain a softer tone with the contract trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, suggesting scope for a continuation of the current bear cycle.

EURUSD TECHS: Watching Trendline Support

• RES 4: 1.1139 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1077 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Jan 5 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• PRICE: 1.0974 @ 05:50 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 1.0916/0877 Trendline from the Nov 1 low / Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 1.0793 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0724 Low Dec 8
• SUP 4: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg

EURUSD is unchanged and price remains inside its recent range. Trendline support - at 1.0916 - drawn from the Nov 1 low remains intact and MA studies are in a bull mode position. This highlights an uptrend and suggests the recent move lower has been a correction. A recent golden cross in the DMA space (50- rising above the 200-dma), is also a bullish signal. Support to watch is 1.0877, the Jan 5 low. The bull trigger is 1.1139, Dec 28 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2772 @ 06:01 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 1.2611/2604 Low Jan 03 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 1.2449 Low Nov 22
• SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17

The trend outlook in GBPUSD is unchanged and remains bullish with support intact - for now. The focus is on resistance at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high and a bull trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.2881, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support lies at 1.2611, the Jan 2 low. The 50-day EMA lies just below at 1.2604. Clearance of both support points would highlight a short-term top.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20
• RES 3: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 0.8642 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8593 @ 06:20 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 0.8587 Low Jan 09
• SUP 2: 0.8571 Low Dec 15
• SUP 3: 0.8549 Low Dec 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 5

The short-term trend condition in EURGBP remains bearish and gains are considered corrective. The recent break of the 50-day EMA strengthens a bearish theme and an extension lower would open 0.8571, the Dec 15 low, ahead of key support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 0.8715, the Dec 28 high. The 50-day EMA, at 0.8642, is the initial firm resistance to watch.

USDJPY TECHS: Resistance Cleared

• RES 4: 149.16 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg
• RES 3: 148.51 High Nov 30
• RES 2: 147.32 High Dec 7
• RES 1: 146.59 High Dec 11
• PRICE: 145.14 @ 06:45 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 143.42 Low Jan 9 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 141.86 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 139.11 2.236 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing

USDJPY traded higher Thursday resulting in a break of resistance at 145.97, the Jan 5 high. The breach undermines the recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a continuation higher. This has opened 147.32, the Dec 7 high. A key short-term support has been defined at 143.42, the Jan 9 low. A break of this level is required to instead signal a top and highlight a resumption of bearish activity.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 163.72 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 162.25 High Nov 29
• RES 2: 161.69 76.4% retracement of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg
• RES 1: 160.18 High Jan 11
• PRICE: 159.28 @ 06:56 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 157.21 Low Jan 9 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: 155.08/153.23 Low Jan 02 / Dec 07 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support

EURJPY traded sharply higher Wednesday and maintains a firmer tone. The rally strengthens a short-term bullish theme and has resulted in a clear break of resistance at 158.57, the Dec 19 high. Note too that the 50-day EMA has also been cleared. Yesterday, 160.07, 61.8% of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg, was pierced. A clear break of this level would open 161.69, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at 157.21, the Jan 9 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Holds, For Now

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• PRICE: 0.6696 @ 07:57 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 0.6641 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 0.6621 Trendline support drawn from the Oct 26 low
• SUP 3: 0.6571 50.0% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec Upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6526 Low Dec 7 and key support

AUDUSD is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. The recent move lower appears to be a correction and the medium-term trend directional signals point north. Moving average studies also highlight an uptrend and trendline support - at 0.6621 - drawn from the late October low, remains intact. The trendline represents an important support. On the upside key resistance is unchanged at 0.6871, the Dec 28 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance To Watch Is At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3538 50.0% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3480 200-dma
• RES 2: 1.3457 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3443 High Jan 11
• PRICE: 1.3374 @ 08:03 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 1.3229/3177 Low Jan 2 / Low Dec 27
• SUP 2: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.3055 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull phase

USDCAD traded higher Thursday, building on recent gains. The broader trend outlook is unchanged and remains bearish and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3457. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and open 1.3480, the 200-dma. For bears, a move lower would signal the end of the correction and attention would turn to 1.3177, the Dec 27 low and bear trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 139.39 3.764 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 137.96/138.84 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 135.98 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 135.74 @ 05:28 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 134.87 Low Jan 10
• SUP 2: 134.37 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 133.42 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 132.89 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase

Bund futures maintain a softer tone and the contract traded to a fresh short-term low on Wednesday. The recent move below the 20-day EMA risks a deeper correction, opening key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37. Momentum studies are pointing south, highlighting the short-term bearish threat. On the upside, a resumption of gains would open 138.84, the Dec 27 high and a bull trigger. Initial resistance is at 135.98, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24 (cont)
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 119.640/830 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 118.531 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 118.390 @ 05:38 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 117.900 Low Jan 10 / 11
• SUP 2: 117.800/796 Low Dec 8 and a key support / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 117.510 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 117.060 Low Dec 1

A bearish corrective cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and this week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The recent move through the 20-day EMA highlights potential for a deeper pullback, exposing 117.800, Dec 8 low, and the 50-day EMA at 117.796. Clearance of both support points would strengthen a bearish threat. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 119.830, Dec 27 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 106.774 1.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.698 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.640 High Dec 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.220/360 20-day EMA / Low Jan 3
• PRICE: 106.150 @ 05:41 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 105.935 Low Jan 11
• SUP 2: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 105.730 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 105.660 High Nov 17

Schatz futures remain bearish despite the gap higher today. Key short-term support at 105.955, the Dec 13 low, has this week been cleared. This strengthens the current bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 105.780 next, the Dec 1 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 106.220, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average is required to ease bearish pressure.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 103.94 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 103.33 High Dec 29
• RES 2: 101.98 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 100.75 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 99.80 @ Close Jan 12
• SUP 1: 99.60 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 98.97 High Dec 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 97.39 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 96.67 Low Dec 5

Gilt futures are consolidating and maintain a softer tone with the contract trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, suggesting scope for a continuation of the current bear cycle. This has exposed support at 98.97, the Dec 6 high. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 101.98, the Jan 3 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Short-Term Bear Cycle Is Still In Play

• RES 4: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.77 High Jan 4
• PRICE: 118.12 @ Close Jan 11
• SUP 1: 117.24 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 116.17 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.18 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle

The recent move down in BTP futures is considered corrective. However, price has traded through support around the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for a continuation lower near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA and a key support, at 116.17. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 119.77, the Jan 4 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 121.43, the Dec 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4697.50 1.382 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 4599.00/4634.00 High Jan 2 / High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4499.00 @ 06:25 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 4446.70/4444.0 50-day EMA and a key support / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: 4370.00 Low Nov 28
• SUP 3: 4334.00 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 - Dec 14 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4220.00 Low Nov 10

Eurostoxx 50 futures are consolidating. The primary trend direction remains up and the recent move lower is considered corrective. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a rising trend cycle. Key short-term support is 4446.70, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 4370.00, the Nov 28 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 4634.00, the Dec 14 high and bull trigger.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Bull Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4915.11 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4900.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4854.75 1.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4841.50 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4809.25 @ 06:53 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 4702.00 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 4694.00 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 3: 4668.13 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4594.00 Low Nov 30

S&P E-Minis remain above last Friday’s low and the contract has traded higher this week. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend and open 4854.75, a Fibonacci projection. Support at the 20-day EMA of 4766.12 has recently been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish threat and open the 50-day EMA, at 4673.91.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H4) Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: $86.50 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $84.22 - High Nov 30
• RES 1: $79.41/81.45 - High Jan 4 / High Dec 26 and key resistance
• PRICE: $79.20 @ 07:04 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: $74.79 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $72.67/71.21 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.84 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

Brent futures remain below key short-term resistance at $81.45, the Dec 26 high. The outlook is bearish and the reversal off the late December highs means that price has not remained above the 50-day EMA. This suggests that the Dec 13 - 26 recovery was a correction and that the primary trend direction is down. Attention is on $72.67, the Dec 13 low and bear trigger. Clearance of $81.45 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

WTI TECHS: (G4) Directional Signals Still Bearish

• RES 4: $84.18 - High Oct 24
• RES 3: $82.64 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $79.67 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $74.51/76.18 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 26
• PRICE: $73.74 @ 07:12 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: $69.28 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $67.98 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $65.24 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.79 - 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 6 - Oct 20 price swing

Trend conditions in WTI futures are unchanged and the directional signals remain bearish. Resistance to watch is $74.51, the 50-day EMA. The average was briefly pierced late December. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The trigger for a resumption of the trend is $67.98, the Dec 13 low.

GOLD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 2: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $2064.0/2088.5 - High Jan 5 / High Dec 28
• PRICE: $2035.9 @ 07:18 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: $2013.8 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold is trading closer to its recent lows following the pullback from $2088.5, the Dec 28 high. Price is also trading ahead of key support at $2013.2 the 50-day EMA. A break of this level, if seen, would expose key support at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. For bulls, clearance of $2088.5 would reinstate the bull cycle that started Dec 13. This would open $2097.1, 76.4% of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg, ahead of key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.4.

SILVER TECHS: Trendline Break Highlights Bearish Threat

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $23.517 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $22.889 @ 07:30 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: $22.476 - Low Jan 11
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver traded lower Thursday. Recent weakness resulted in a break of a trendline drawn from the Oct 5 low. This highlights a bearish threat and exposes key support at $22.510, the Dec 13 low. This level was pierced yesterday, a clear break of it would signal scope for a continuation lower and open $21.883, the Nov 13 low. Key short-term resistance is at $24.606, the Dec 22 high. A move above this level would reinstate a bullish theme.