MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Index Eyes August Bull Trigger

Price Signal Summary – USD Index Eyes August Bull Trigger

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis remain above 4293.75, Monday's low. The outlook is bearish following the clear breach this week of the 50-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded down to 3974.00 on Sep 20. The contract has since recovered. Despite recent gains, a bearish threat remains present. Monday's breach of 4060.50, Aug 19 low highlights a short-term bearish cycle.
• In FX, EURUSD traded lower yesterday following the Fed decision, reinforcing the current bearish position. The move lower that started Sep 9 has cleared 1.1770, Sep 13 low and 1.1758, 61.8% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally. GBPUSD traded lower yesterday. The pair Monday breached an important short-term support at 1.3727, Sep 8 low and has remained under pressure since. Recent USD Index (DXY) gains have exposed the key resistance at 93.73, Aug 20 high and the bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 25.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded sharply lower on Sep 16. The move resulted in a break of support at $1774.5, Aug 19 low and a test of $1745.4, 61.8% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook following last week's gains. Tuesday's price pattern was a bullish doji candle, reinforcing current bull trend conditions.
• In FI, Bund futures are consolidating and remain in a downtrend. A bearish theme follows the recent move through 172.00 with moving average studies pointing south. Gilt futures continue to trade above recent lows. A bearish theme however remains intact following last week's move lower.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 1.1909 High Jul 30 / Sep 03 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1888 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1846 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 1.1776 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1710 @ 06:00 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 1.1684 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1664 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD traded lower yesterday following the Fed decision, reinforcing the current bearish position. The move lower that started Sep 9 has cleared 1.1770, Sep 13 low and 1.1758, 61.8% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally. This week's extension lower has also resulted in a breach of 1.1722, the 76.4% retracement and opens key support at 1.1664, Aug 20 low and an important bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.1776, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Support Zone Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 2: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and the intraday bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3759 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3643 @ 06:06 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 1.3633/02 Triangle base drawn from Jul 20 low / Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3520 Low Jan 18
• SUP 4: 1.3462 50.0% retracement of the Sep '20 - Jun rally

GBPUSD traded lower yesterday. The pair Monday breached an important short-term support at 1.3727, Sep 8 low and has remained under pressure since. 1.3680, Aug 27 low, has also given way, opening the important 1.3602/3572 support zone. Note that there is a triangle base at 1.3633 that has been probed - a clear break would reinforce bearish conditions. Resistance is at 1.3759, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Resistance Intact For Now

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8659 High Jul 21
• RES 2: 0.8614/18 High Sep 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 20 - Aug 10 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8613 High Sep 23
• PRICE: 0.8582 @ 06:10 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 0.8560 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8502/01 76.4% of the Aug 10 - Sep 7 rally / Low Sep 16
• SUP 3: 0.8484 Low Aug 16
• SUP 4: 0.8467/50 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Aug 10

EURGBP traded higher again yesterday but failed to hold onto session highs and remains below key resistance at 0.8614, Sep 7 high. A break of this resistance would represent an important bullish development and signal scope for a stronger rally. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.8501, Sep 16 low. A break of this support would expose 0.8484, Aug 16 low ahead of 0.8450, Aug 10 low and the bear trigger.

USDJPY TECHS: Range Base Holds Firm

• RES 4: 110.82 High Jul 7
• RES 3: 110.80 High Aug 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 110.45/46 High Sep 8 / High Aug 13
• RES 1: 110.16 High Sep 13 / 14
• PRICE: 109.81 @ 06:13 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 109.11 Low Aug 16 / Sep 15
• SUP 2: 108.72 Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.47 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally

USDJPY traded firmer Wednesday and the range base at 109.11 has remained intact. The outlook is bearish however support at 109.11, Aug 16 / Sep 15 low needs to give way to reinforce this theme. A break would expose 108.72, Aug 4 low and clearance of 108.72 would open 108.47, a Fibonacci retracement and below. For bulls, the level to break is unchanged at 110.80, Aug 11 high. Initial firm resistance is at 110.45/46.

EURJPY TECHS: Probes Key Support

• RES 4: 131.09 High Jul 13
• RES 3: 130.39/75 1.0% 10-dma envelope / High Sep 3 bull trigger
• RES 2: 130.20 High Sep 14 high
• RES 1: 129.26/67 20-day EMA / High Sep 17
• PRICE: 128.57 @ 06:21 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 127.94/93 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger / Intrada low
• SUP 2: 127.88 50.0% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jan rally
• SUP 3: 127.50 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 126.40 61.8% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jun rally

EURJPY remains in a bear mode and yesterday traded just below the 127.94 key support and bear trigger, Aug 19 low. The formation this week of a death cross in the DMA space reinforces a bearish theme. A clear break of 127.94 would open 127.88, a retracement. Further out, the risk of a move towards the 2021 lows of 125.09 has increased. Initial firm resistance is at 129.67, the Sep 17 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Consolidating At Recent Lows

• RES 4: 0.7499/7503 50.0% of the May - Aug sell-off / High Jul 13
• RES 3: 0.7478 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.7410 High Sep 10
• RES 1: 0.7310 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.7240 @ 06:24 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 0.7220 Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: 0.7194 76.4% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: 0.7106 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend

AUDUSD is consolidating at recent lows and the outlook remains bearish. The 20-day EMA and a number of retracement levels have recently been cleared as the pair extends the pullback from 0.7478, Sep 3 high. The focus is on 0.7194, 76.4% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally. A breach of this level would expose the key support at 0.7106, Aug 20 low. Initial resistance is seen at 0.7310, the 20-day EMA ahead of 0.7410, the Sep 10 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 2: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2896 High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.2760 @ 06:27 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 1.2687 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2583 Low Sep 10
• SUP 3: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone and continues to display a bullish short-term trend condition following the recovery from 1.2494, Sep 3 low. Furthermore, moving average conditions remain in a bull mode and this reinforces a positive theme. Monday's gains resulted in a break of resistance at 1.2762, Sep 8 high. The focus is on the 1.2949 bull trigger, Aug 20 high. Initial support is at 1.2687, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 172.76 High Sep 2 and 3
• RES 3: 172.48 High Sep 9
• RES 2: 172.12 High Sep 14 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 171.96 High Sep 21
• PRICE: 171.58 @ 05:16 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 170.81 Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 170.52 3.00 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
• SUP 3: 170.22 3.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
• SUP 4: 170.00 Round number support

Bund futures are consolidating and remain in a downtrend. A bearish theme follows the recent move through 172.00 with moving average studies pointing south. Furthermore, the recent move lower has maintained the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Attention is on 170.52 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 172.12, Sep 14 high. Clearance of this level would ease the current bearish risk.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Needle Points South

• RES 4: 136.030 High Aug 30 , 31
• RES 4: 135.870 High Sep 3
• RES 3: 135.660 High Sep 7 and 9 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.550 High Sep 14
• PRICE: 135.330 @ 05:07 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 135.200 Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 135.136 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 135.077 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 135.030 2.50 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing

Bobl futures outlook remains bearish despite recent gains. Last week's extension lower marked a continuation of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, signalling scope for a further downside. The focus is on 135.136 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 135.550, Sep 14 high where a break is required to ease current bearish pressure. Short-term upticks are considered corrective.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 112.350 High Aug 24
• RES 3: 112.340 High Aug 31
• RES 2: 112.305 High Sep 3
• RES 1: 112.290 High Sep 20 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 112.240 @ 05:30 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 112.215 Low Sep 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 112.206 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.200 Round number support
• SUP 4: 112.197 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Schatz futures have pulled away from recent highs. The outlook is bearish and recent gains were considered corrective. The move lower to 112.215 on Sep 9, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the bear cycle that started Aug 5. A continuation of the move lower would refocus attention on 112.206, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance is seen at 112.290, Sep 20 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 128.77 High Sep 3
• RES 3: 128.42 High Sep 7
• RES 2: 128.18 High Sep 10, 14 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 127.69 High Sep 21
• PRICE: 127.50 @ Close Sep 22
• SUP 1: 126.83 2.00 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 2: 126.70 Low Jun 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: 126.57 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.41 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Gilt futures continue to trade above recent lows. A bearish theme however remains intact following last week's move lower. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs highlights the current trend condition and the focus is on 126.83 next, a Fibonacci projection ahead of 126.70, Jun 3 low (cont) and a key support Key near-term resistance is at 128.18, Sep 10 and 14 high. A break of this level is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 155.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger (cont)
• RES 3: 155.68 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 155.14 High Aug 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 154.64 High Sep 22
• PRICE: 154.51 @ Close Sep 22
• SUP 1: 153.36 Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 152.94/84 Low Sep 9 / 50.0% of Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 152.66 Low Jul 15 (cont)
• SUP 4: 152.16 61.8% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)

BTP futures trend conditions are bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that highlights a bearish theme remains intact. The focus is on 152.84 next, a Fibonacci retracement and below. On the upside, a resumption of gains would open resistance at 155.14, Aug 31 high. The bear trigger is unchanged at 152.94, Sep 7 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Sep and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4197.45 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 4184.00 High Sep 17
• PRICE: 4144.50 @ 05:52 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 3974.00 Low Sep20
• SUP 2: 3962.50 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 rally
• SUP 3: 3941.50 Low Jul 21
• SUP 4: 3882.00 Low Jul 19 and a key support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded down to 3974.00 on Sep 20. The contract has since recovered. Despite recent gains, a bearish threat remains present. Monday's breach of 4060.50, Aug 19 low highlights a short-term bearish cycle. This follows last week's move below 4104.50, Sep 9 low that confirmed a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and opens 3962.50 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Resistance is at 4102.50, Sep 20 high.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Holding Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4539.50 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4519.75 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 4478.50 High Sep 16
• RES 1: 4406.79/18.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 20
• PRICE: 4396.00 @ 06:29 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 4293.75 Low Sep 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4243.50 Low Jul 20
• SUP 3: 4214.50 Low Jul 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 4117.00 Low Jun 21

S&P E-minis remain above 4293.75, Monday's low. The outlook is bearish following the clear breach this week of the 50-day EMA. A key short-term support and bear trigger has been established at 4293.75. Price needs to trade above Monday's high of 4418.00 to suggest the tide may have turned and signal scope for stronger recovery. Note a break of 4418.00 would also see price move back above the 50-day EMA and this would be positive.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X1) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: $80.37 1.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $78.13 - 0.764 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $76.74 - 0.618 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• PRICE: $76.36 @ 07:05 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: $73.26 - Low Sep 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: $70.88 Low Sep 9
• SUP 3: $69.77/$68.13 - Low Aug 26 / Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $64.20 - Low Aug 23 and a key support

Brent futures have recovered from recent lows. Tuesday's price formation was a doji candle, signalling a resumption of gains and the contract has breached 76.13, Sep 15 high to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The move higher paves the way for a climb towards $76.74 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at $73.26, Sep 21 low. A break would signal a short-term top.

WTI TECHS: (X1) Heading North

• RES 4: $75.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $74.08 - 0.764 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $73.58 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $72.87 - High Sep 15
• PRICE: $72.40@ 07:08 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: $69.39 - Low Sep 21
• SUP 2: $67.35 - Low Sep 9 and key support
• SUP 3: $67.15 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $61.50 - Low Aug 23 and the bear trigger

WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook following last week's gains. Tuesday's price pattern was a bullish doji candle, reinforcing current bull trend conditions. Last week's gains resulted in a break of the bear channel top drawn off the Jul 6 high. The move higher strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for further short-term gains. The focus is on $73.58 next, Jul 6 high and the bull trigger. Key support is at $67.35, Sep 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 3: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1808.7 - High Sep 14
• RES 1: $1787.4 - High Sep 22
• PRICE: $1763.5 @ 07:22 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: $1742.3 - Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: $1724.5 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1678.00 Low Mar 31

Gold traded sharply lower on Sep 16. The move resulted in a break of support at $1774.5, Aug 19 low and a test of $1745.4, 61.8% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. The retracement remains exposed and recent S/T gains are considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would open the key support at $1690.6 further out, Aug 9 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $1808.7, Sep 14 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

SILVER TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 3: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: $24.411 - High Sep 8
• RES 1: $23.437 - 20-Day EMA
• PRICE: $22.625 @ 07:25 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: $22.039 - Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 3: $21.677 - Low Sep 24
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver trend conditions remain bearish following last week's sharp losses that resulted in a breach of support at $22.626, Aug 9 low. The metal traded lower again Monday. A bearish theme was also recently reinforced following the failure to clear the 50-day EMA that continues to provide resistance. With $22.626 cleared, the focus is on $21.899 next, Nov 30, 2020 low. Key trend resistance has been defined at $24.867, Sep 3 high.