MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Strikes Fresh Multi-Decade High

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Strikes Fresh Multi-Decade High

• S&P E-Minis have recovered from yesterday’s low of 4375.50. The short-term condition remains bearish though. The contract has breached the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4452.17 and this has reinforced a bearish threat. EUROSTOXX 50 futures still appear vulnerable. Recent weakness has resulted in a move below the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Furthermore, support at 3735.00, the Mar 18 low, has also been breached.
• USDJPY maintains its firmer tone and has this morning resumed its uptrend and traded to a fresh cycle high. The pair has also cleared the 126.00 handle. The break higher reinforces underlying bullish conditions and signals potential for a continuation of the uptrend near-term. EURUSD is inching towards key support and the bear trigger at 1.0806, the Mar 7 low. The pair remains bearish. The recent failure at 1.1185, Mar 31 high, continues to highlight a bearish threat and last week’s move lower has reinforced this theme. GBPUSD is unchanged and remains vulnerable. Recent weakness resulted in a print below key support at 1.3000, the Mar 15 low and a bear trigger. The move lower confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and marks an extension of the recent pullback from 1.3298, the Mar 23 high.
• Gold traded higher again yesterday and has breached initial resistance at $1966.1, the Mar 24 high. The move above this hurdle highlights a range breakout and suggests scope for an extension of current short-term gains. Recent weakness in WTI futures resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA. The move lower marks an extension of the current bearish cycle and the print below the 50-day EMA continues to suggest scope for an extension lower near-term.
• Bunds maintain a softer tone and traded to a fresh cycle low Tuesday. The primary trend remains down. Moving average studies are in a bear mode and a broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, that has unfolded since Aug / Sep 2019, remains intact. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. The contract found resistance last week at 122.35, Apr 4 high. The pullback means price failed to remain above the 20-day EMA, and that an important resistance at 122.72, Mar 18 high, has remained intact.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Sights Are On The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 1.1244 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 3: 1.1185/1222 High Mar 31 / 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1081 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0970 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0831 @ 06:12 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 1.0806 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 3: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0659 0.764 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing

EURUSD is inching towards key support and the bear trigger at 1.0806, the Mar 7 low. The pair remains bearish. The recent failure at 1.1185, Mar 31 high, continues to highlight a bearish threat and last week’s move lower has reinforced this theme. A break of 1.0806 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.0767, the May 7 2020 low. Clearance of 1.1185 is needed to highlight a base and reinstate a bull theme.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 1.3298 High Mar 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3234 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3167 High Apr 5
• RES 1: 1.3114 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3001 @ 06:25 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 1.2983 Low Apr 8
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD is unchanged and remains vulnerable. Recent weakness resulted in a print below key support at 1.3000, the Mar 15 low and a bear trigger. The move lower confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and marks an extension of the recent pullback from 1.3298, the Mar 23 high. The focus is on 1.2954, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial resistance is at 1.3114, the 20-day EMA ahead of the key 50-day EMA level at 1.3234.

EURGBP TECHS: Support Appears Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8624 High Oct 1 2021
• RES 3: 0.8600 High Dec 8 2022
• RES 2: 0.8512/55 High Mar 31 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.8405/8435 High Apr 11 / High Apr 4
• PRICE: 0.8332 @ 06:30 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 0.8296 Low Mar 23 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.8276 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 31 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8117 High Apr 7 2016

A bearish threat in EURGBP remains present and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this theme. The focus on 0.8296, the Mar 23 low. A break of this support would open 0.8276, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 31 rally. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.8405, Monday’s high ahead of 0.8435, the Apr 4 high. A break of Monday’s high would represent a short-term bullish development.

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle Highs Once Again

• RES 4: 128.15 High May 17 2002
• RES 3: 127.71 3.764 proj of the Dec 3 ‘21 - Jan 4 -24 price swing
• RES 2: 127.16 3.618 proj of the Dec 3 ‘21 - Jan 4 -24 price swing
• RES 1: 126.71 3.50 proj of the Dec 3 ‘21 - Jan 4 -24 price swing
• PRICE: 126.21 @ 08:13 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 124.77/123.47 Low Apr 12 / Low Apr 6 and 7
• SUP 2: 122.24 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 121.28 Low Mar 31 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 120.00 Round number support

USDJPY maintains its firmer tone and has this morning resumed its uptrend and traded to a fresh cycle high. The pair has also cleared the 126.00 handle. The break higher reinforces underlying bullish conditions and signals potential for a continuation of the uptrend near-term. The trend condition is overbought, however, this is not slowing the trend in any way at this stage. Key trend support has been defined at 121.28, the Mar 31 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Broader Trend Direction Remains Up

• RES 4: 139.00 High Aug 21 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 138.62 High Aug 25 2015
• RES 2: 137.50/53 High Feb 2 ‘18 and major resistance / High Mar 28
• RES 1: 137.13 High Apr 11
• PRICE: 136.10 @ 06:44 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 134.07/133.94 20-day EMA / Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: 133.15 High Feb 10
• SUP 3: 132.20 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 131.59 Low Mar 22

The EURJPY pullback from 137.53, Mar 28 high appears to be a correction and the move lower has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 134.07/133.94, the 20-day EMA and Mar 28 low respectively. A break lower would open 133.15, the Feb 10 high. The primary trend remains up and the bull trigger is 137.50/53. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and expose 138.62, the Aug 25 2015 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Short-Term Outlook

• RES 4: 0.7762 76.4% retracement of the Feb ‘21 - Jan ‘22 downleg
• RES 3: 0.7716 High Jun 16 2021
• RES 2: 0.7643/61 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Apr 5
• RES 1: 0.7519 High Apr 7
• PRICE: 0.7453 @ 06:49 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 0.7400 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 0.7376 Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 0.7361 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.7283 Low Mar 17

The current AUDUSD bear cycle remains intact following the recent pullback from resistance at 0.7661, Apr 5 high. Note that price activity on Apr 5 confirmed a bearish candle - a shooting star - and the subsequent move lower reinforces this pattern. The 20-day EMA at 0.7449, has been breached. This opens the 50-day EMA at 0.7361. Key resistance is at 0.7661 and also represents the trigger for a resumption of bullish activity.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Short-Term Conditions

• RES 4: 1.2783 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 5 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2711 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 5 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2699 High Mar 17
• RES 1: 1.2662 High Apr 12
• PRICE: 1.2612 @ 06:56 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 1.2533 Low Apr 7
• SUP 2: 1.2479 Low Apr 6
• SUP 3: 1.2421/2403 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021

USDCAD traded higher again Tuesday, extending last week’s reversal from 1.2403, the Apr 5 low. Price action on Apr 5, is a long-legged doji candle. This is a short-term reversal signal and continues to suggest scope for an extension higher. The pair has traded above the 50-day EMA, at 1.2629, and the 200 DMA, at 1.2624. This opens 1.2699 next, the Mar 17 high. Initial support to watch is at 1.2533, the Apr 7 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 161.81 High Mar 16
• RES 3: 160.31 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 159.79 High Apr 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 156.19/58.41 High Apr 11 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 155.01 @ 05:06 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 154.27 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 154.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 153.48 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 152.65 Low Sep 1 2015 (cont)

Bunds maintain a softer tone and traded to a fresh cycle low Tuesday. The primary trend remains down. Moving average studies are in a bear mode and a broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, that has unfolded since Aug / Sep 2019, remains intact. 156.00 has been cleared and this opens the 154.00 handle next. Key short-term trend resistance is at 159.79, the Apr 4 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Bearish Trend Sequence

• RES 4: 130.622 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 130.160 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a key trend resistance
• RES 1: 128.470/129.014 High Apr 8 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 127.600 @ 05:11 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 127.120 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 126.940 0.382 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.480 Low Jun 5 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.196 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing

Bobl futures traded to another fresh cycle low yesterday confirming a resumption of the primary downtrend. The move lower maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving averages continue to point south. The focus is on a move towards 126.940, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 129.350, the Apr 4 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 111.355 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 110.855 High Apr 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.690 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 110.450 @ 05:21 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 110.295 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 110.188 0.382 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 110.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 109.983 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing

Schatz futures remain weak and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low Tuesday. The move lower once again confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The move lower paves the way for weakness towards 110.188 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 110.855, the Apr 4 high.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Southbound

• RES 4: 123.52 High Mar 9
• RES 3: 122.72 High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 120.85/122.35 20-day EMA / High Apr 4
• RES 1: 120.47 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 119.49 @ Close Apr 12
• SUP 1: 118.42 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 118.05 0.618 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 117.04 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015

The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. The contract found resistance last week at 122.35, Apr 4 high. The pullback means price failed to remain above the 20-day EMA, and that an important resistance at 122.72, Mar 18 high, has remained intact. The recent cycle low prints confirm a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on 118.05 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend resistance is at 122.35, Mar 9 high.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down

• RES 4: 140.71 High Mar 11
• RES 3: 139.23 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 137.05/38.68 20-day EMA / High Mar 31 and key resistance
• RES 1: 136.12 High Apr 7
• PRICE: 134.09 @ Close Apr 12
• SUP 1: 132.69 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 132.61 Low Apr 22 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 131.85 0.618 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.24 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

BTP futures traded lower again Tuesday, again extending last week’s breach of support at 135.69, the Mar 29 low. The move lower, confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving averages are in a bear mode too. The focus is on 132.61 next, the Apr 22 2020 low (cont). Firm trend resistance is unchanged at 138.68, the Mar 31 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Remains Below Its Key EMAs

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3944.00/3965.50 High Mar 29 / High Feb 23
• RES 1: 3888.00 High Apr 5
• PRICE: 3742.00 @ 05:43 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 3684.00 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 3626.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3551.60 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 4: 3523.00 Low Mar 11

EUROSTOXX 50 futures still appear vulnerable. Recent weakness has resulted in a move below the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Furthermore, support at 3735.00, the Mar 18 low, has also been breached. The move lower undermines the recent bull theme and highlights a developing bearish threat. An extension would open 3626.50, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 3944.00, the Mar 29 high.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 4730.50 High Jan 1
• RES 3: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 4631.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4519.75/4588.75 High Apr 8 / High Apr 5
• PRICE: 4427.50 @ 06:57 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 4362.63 50.0% retracement of the Feb 24 - Mar 29 rally
• SUP 2: 4499.29 61.8% retracement of the Feb 24 - Mar 29 rally
• SUP 3: 4239.00 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 4220.92 76.4% retracement of the Feb 24 - Mar 29 rally

S&P E-Minis have recovered from yesterday’s low of 4375.50. The short-term condition remains bearish though. The contract has breached the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4452.17 and this has reinforced a bearish threat. The move through 4400.00 signals scope for weakness towards 4362.63 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been established at 4519.75, Apr 8 high A break would ease the bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M2) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $128.04 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $125.40 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 2: $112.28/119.74 - High Mar 30 / High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $109.90 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $104.75 @ 07:05 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: $97.57 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: $94.61 - Low Mar 16 and a key support
• SUP 3: $90.58 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $84.74 - Low Feb 18

Brent futures remain vulnerable despite yesterday’s gains. The contract has recently breached $102.19, Mar 29 low and continues to challenge a key support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $100.75 today. A clear break of this average would suggest scope for a deeper decline and pave the way for a move towards $94.61, the Mar 16 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is $109.90, the Apr 5 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

WTI TECHS: (K2) Remains Below Resistance

• RES 4: $122.73 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $116.64/118.34 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $108.75/112.93 -High Mar 30 / High Mar 28
• RES 1: $105.59 - High Apr 5 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: $100.73 @ 07:15 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: $92.93 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: $92.20 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $88.49 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $85.81 - Low Feb 18

Recent weakness in WTI futures resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA. The move lower marks an extension of the current bearish cycle and the print below the 50-day EMA continues to suggest scope for an extension lower near-term. The focus is on the next key support at $92.20, the Mar 15 low and an important bear trigger. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $105.59, the Apr 5 high, where a break would ease current bearish pressure.

GOLD TECHS: Range Breakout

• RES 4: $2007.9 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 3: $2001.6 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 2: $1980.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 1: $1978.6 - High Apr 12
• PRICE: $1970.1 @ 07:20 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: $1915.1 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1890.2 - Low Mar 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally

Gold traded higher again yesterday and has breached initial resistance at $1966.1, the Mar 24 high. The move above this hurdle highlights a range breakout and suggests scope for an extension of current short-term gains. The focus is on $1980.3 and $2001.6, Fibonacci retracement levels. On the downside, key support has been defined at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. A breach of this support would reinstate a bearish threat.

SILVER TECHS: Firmer Tone

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $25.847 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $25.466 @ 08:04 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: $23.974 - Low Mar 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $23.173 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $23.082 - Low Feb 15

Silver resistance is unchanged at $25.847, the Mar 24 high. The metal has traded higher in recent sessions and this means that it has recently found support at the 50-day EMA - at $24.586 today. Clearance of $25.847 would represent a bullish development and signal potential for a climb towards $26.943, the Mar 8 high and a bull trigger. Key support below the 50-day EMA has been defined at $23.974, the Feb 24 low.