MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Pullbacks Considered Corrective

Price Signal Summary - USD Pullback Considered Corrective

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis maintain a strong bullish theme. The focus is on 4400.00 next, a round number resistance. EUROSTOXX 50 (U1) attention remains on the bearish engulfing candle from Jun 18 that continues to warn of a short-term top in the trend. A break of 4015.00, Jun 21 low would reinforce the importance of the engulfing line and signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 4000.00 and 3914.00, May 20 low.
• In FX, the USD outlook remains bullish and the current pullback is considered corrective. The EURUSD bear trigger is Friday's low of 1.1808. GBPUSD gains are likely corrective too. Attention is on a break of Friday's 1.3733 low to open 1.3717, Apr 16 low. USDJPY uptrend remains intact. The focus turns to 111.71/94, Mar 24, 2020 high and 1.0% 10-dma envelope. Scope also exists for a climb towards 112.23, Feb 20, 2020 high. Key support lies at 110.42, Jun 30 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold probed $1795.0 Friday, Jun 23 high. A clear break would neutralise recent bearish conditions and open $1825.4, Jun 17 high. Key support lies at $1750.8, Jun 29 low. The Oil market trend condition remains bullish. Brent (U1) focus is on $77.86, 1.382 projection of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing. Support lies at $73.49, the 20-day EMA. WTI (Q1) sights are set on $77.35, 1.618 projection of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing. Watch support at $71.72, the 20-day EMA.
• Within FI, Bund futures are firmer. Key short-term directional triggers are; support at 171.67, Jun 22 low and resistance at 173.16, Jun 11 high. Resistance has been probed, however a clear break is still required to signal scope for a stronger rally. Gilt futures have tested key resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high. A clear break would open 128.50, 1.00 projection of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing. Key pivot support is unchanged at 126.70, Jun 3 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 1.2021 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2006 High Jun 29 / Jun 17
• RES 2: 1.1930/1975 High Jun 29 / High Jun 25
• RES 1: 1.1909 High Jun 30
• PRICE: 1.1874 @ 05:59 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 1.1808/1795 Low Jul 2 / Low Apr 6
• SUP 2: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: 1.1704 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD is trading above last week's low print. The outlook though remains bearish. The pair recently cleared 1.1848, Jun 18, 21 lows and 1.1837, 76.4% of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally. The break reinforces a bearish theme and suggests scope for weakness towards 1.1795 next, Apr 6 low and the key support at 1.1704, Mar 31 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1975, Jun 25 high. Initial resistance is at 1.1909, Jun 30 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 1.4074 Low Jun 10
• RES 2: 1.3970/1.4001 50-day EMA / High Jun 23 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3928 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3888 @ 06:10 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 1.3812/3733 Low Jul 2
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3669 Low Apr 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD continues to recover, having bounced off last week's low of 1.3733. The near-term outlook remains bearish though. Last week, price breached 1.3787, Jun 21 low and touched new multi-month lows. This opens 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Attention is also on the key short-term support and bear trigger at 1.3669, Apr 12 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.4001, Jun 23 high. First resistance though is at 1.3928, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Support

• RES 4: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 3: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 1: 0.8616/29 High Jul 1 and key resistance / High Jun 15
• PRICE: 0.8553 @ 06:19 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 0.8530/31 Low June 23 / 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 2: 0.8493 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP traded lower yesterday and the cross is weaker this morning. The outlook remains bearish. Support at 0.8561, May 12 low was breached Jun 17. This continues to signal the end of the recent consolidation and highlights a bearish theme. The focus is on 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally and just above the Jun 23 low. Clearance of this level would expose key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8616, Jul 1 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 112.40 High Apr 24, 2019
• RES 3: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 111.71/112.01 High Mar 24, 2020 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 111.66 High Jul 2
• PRICE: 110.83 @ 06:27 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 110.42 Low Jun 30 and the key short-term support
• SUP 2: 109.72 Low Jun 21
• SUP 3: 109.19 Low Jun 7
• SUP 4: 108.56 Low May 25

USDJPY continues to pull away from last week's high of 111.66. Pullbacks are considered corrective and bullish price conditions dominate. The pair last week cleared resistance at 111.12, Jun 24 high and a recent bull trigger. The recovery reinforces the current bull trend and the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 112.01 next, the 1.0% 10-dma envelope. Key short-term trend support is at 110.42 Jun 30 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 134.13 High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 132.88 High Jun 17
• RES 1: 132.70 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 131.64 @ 06:31 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 131.28/130.04 Low Jun 29, 30 / Low Jun 21 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 129.59 Low Apr 23
• SUP 3: 128.83 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support

EURJPY drifted lower yesterday and remains below initial resistance levels. The trend outlook is unchanged and is bearish. This follows the sharp move lower between Jun 15 - 21. The cross cleared the 50-day EMA and importantly a bull channel support drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. The break lower highlights a reversal and price has also recently probed the 100-dma. 130.04, Jun 21 low is the bear trigger. Resistance is at the 132.70/88 zone.

AUDUSD TECHS: Extends Bounce From Recent Low

• RES 4: 0.7649 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 2: 0.7617 High Jun 25 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.7583 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.7568 @ 06:39 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 0.7509/7445 Low Jul 5 / Low Jul 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.7400 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.7383 Bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high
• SUP 4: 0.7372 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Mar 9 - 18 price swing

The AUDUSD rebound from last week's low of 0.7445 is extending. Despite these gains, the outlook remains bearish and gains are considered corrective. Last week's weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthemore, moving average studies remain in a bear mode, reinforcing a bearish theme. The focus is on 0.7380, a bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high. Firm resistance is at 0.7617, the Jun 25 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2535 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 1.2487/2501 High Jun 21 / 76.4% of Apr 21 - Jun 1 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2450 High Jul 2
• PRICE: 1.2327 @ 06:44 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 1.2299/53 20-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.2157 Low Jun 16
• SUP 3: 1.2057 Low Jun 7
• SUP 4: 1.2007 Low May 18 and key support

USDCAD drifted lower Friday and reversed some of last week's gains. Nonetheless, the trend condition remains bullish. A positive theme follows the recovery between Jun 1 - 21 that confirmed a reversal. The pair has also cleared the 50-day EMA reinforcing current conditions. Attention is on 1.2501, a Fibonacci retracement. A break would open 1.2653, Apr 21 high and an important resistance. Initial firm support lies at 1.2253, Jun 23 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Monitoring Key Resistance

• RES 4: 174.07 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 173.79 High Apr 8
• RES 2: 173.32 76.4% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 1: 173.19 High Jul 2
• PRICE: 172.65 @ 05:10 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 172.23 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 171.67 Low Jun 22 and the near-term bear trigger
• SUP 3: 171.37 Low Jun 3
• SUP 4: 170.99 Low May 31 and key short-term support

Bund futures traded higher last week and did test key resistance at 173.16, Jan 11 high. A clear break of this hurdle for bulls, would remove recent bearish concerns and instead confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 9. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows would also be reestablished. This would open 173.32, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support has been defined at 171.67, Jun 22 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Attention Is On Resistance

• RES 4: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.663 1.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.510 1.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.350 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 134.120 @ 05:11 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 134.040 Low Jul 1
• SUP 2: 133.860 Low May 28, 31, Jun 22 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 133.700 76.4% retracement of the May 20 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 4: 133.530 Low May 21

Bobl futures traded higher again last week. A key support lies at 133.860, May 28, 31 and Jun 22 low. The recent continued recovery from these lows highlights a more positive short-term theme and attention has turned to key resistance at 124.510, Jun 11 high and a Fibonacci projection. A break would confirm scope for stronger gains. Price needs to breach 133.860 support to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial support lies at 134.040.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Short-Term Positive Theme Intact

• RES 4: 112.210 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 112.205 High Jun 14
• RES 2: 112.185 High Jun 15 and 16
• RES 1: 112.175 High Jun 17, 18 and high Jul 2
• PRICE: 112.145 @ 05:20 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 112.135 Low Jul 1
• SUP 2: 112.110 Congestion lows Apr 20, Jun 22, 23, 25 and 28
• SUP 3: 112.086 138.2% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 4: 112.075 150.0% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally

Schatz futures traded higher last week. The recent short-term recovery from the 112.110 congestion lows suggests scope for a continuation higher. Attention has turned to the key resistance at 112.210, Jun 11 high where a break would strengthen a bullish case. On the downside, clearance of 112.110 would instead reinstate a bearish theme. Initial support lies at 112.135, Jul 1 low.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 129.19 1.382 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 3: 128.92 1.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 128.50 1.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 1: 128.39/43 High Jun 11 / High Jul 2
• PRICE: 128.18 @ Close Jul 5
• SUP 1: 127.77 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 127.25/126.91 Low Jun 10 / Low Jun 17 and key support
• SUP 3: 126.70 Low Jun 23 / Low Jun 3
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low May 21

Gilt futures traded higher last week. This resulted in a probe of key short-term resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high. A clear break would represent an important short-term bullish development and signal a resumption of the uptrend that started May 13. Furthermore, a move higher would maintain a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A break would open 128.50 and 128.92, Fibonacci projections. Initial support is at 127.77, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Recent Gains Expose Key Resistance

• RES 4: 153.40 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 152.66 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 152.47 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 152.21 High Jul 2
• PRICE: 151.74 @ Close Jul 5
• SUP 1: 151.04/150.56 20-day EMA / Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 149.97 Low Jun 25 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 149.74 50.0% retracement of the May 19 - Jun 14 rally
• SUP 4: 149.53 Low May 28

BTPs rallied last week and ended the week on a strong note. Price is also still trading closer to recent highs. The break higher last week suggests the recent corrective pullback between Jun 14 - 25 is over. Further gains would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 152.47, Jun 14 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19. Initial support lies at 151.04, the 20-day EMA. Key support is 149.97, Jun 25 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4265.00 High Jan 15, 2008
• RES 3: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• RES 2: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 4121.00 High Jun 25
• PRICE: 4078.00 @ 05:43 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 4033.50 Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 4022.10/4015.00 50-day EMA / Low Jun 21 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low May 20
• SUP 4: 3871.00 Low May 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to consolidate. The contract traded lower Jun 30 exposing key support at 4015.00, Jun 21 low. Furthermore, a key technical pattern on Jun 18 - a bearish engulfing candle - continues to warn of a short-term top in the trend. A break of 4015.00 would reinforce the engulfing line and signal scope for a deeper pullback opening, 4000.00 and 3914.00, May 20 low. Initial resistance is at 4121.00, Jun 25 high.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Still Defying Gravity

• RES 4: 4508.82 1.236 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 4415.48 1.00 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 4000.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4348.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4340.50 @ 06:46 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 4250.32 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4186.47/26.75 50-day EMA / Low Jun 21 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support

S&P E-minis ended last week on a firm note, rallying once again to an all-time high. This maintains the bullish theme and a positive price sequence. The contract recently recovered from support near the 50-day EMA and this reinforces bullish conditions. 4322.15 has been cleared, 0.764 projection of the Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing. Attention shifts to the 4400.00 handle. Initial support lies at 4250.32, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U1) Heading North

• RES 4: $79.02 - 1.50 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018 (cont)
• RES 2: $77.86 - 1.382 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 1: $77.61 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $77.35 @ 06:49 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: $73.84/36 - 20-day EMA / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $71.24 - Low Jun 17 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $69.42 - High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 4: $67.40 - Low May 25

Brent crude futures last week cleared the recent trend high of $75.77, Jun 28 high. The contract has also started this week on a firmer note. The break higher confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This paves the way for strength towards $77.86 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at $73.84, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal a short-term top.

WTI TECHS: (Q1) Defying Gravity

• RES 4: $78.79 - 1.764 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $77.35 - 1.618 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $77.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $76.77 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $76.53 @ 06:56 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: $74.41 Low Jul 2
• SUP 2: $72.04/69.54 - 20-day EMA / Low Jun 17 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: $68.52 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $66.80 - High May 18

WTI crude has started the week on a firm note, resuming its uptrend and trading to fresh trend highs. This maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Price has cleared $76.18, 1.50 projection of the Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing. The break opens $77.35 next, the 1.618 projection. On the downside, initial firm support is at $72.04, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 3: $1833.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 2: $1825.4 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $1815.8 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1804.3 @ 07:19 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: $1774.4/1750.8 - Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 3: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: $1700.00 - Round number support

Gold is trading higher and extending the recovery from $1750.8, the Jun 29 low. Attention is on the 50-day EMA that intersects at $1815.8. The area around the EMA represents a key short-term resistance and a clear break is required to suggest scope for stronger near-term gains. This would open $1833.7, a Fibonacci retracement. A failure at the 50-day EMA would be a bearish signal and suggest scope for a return to $1750.8.

SILVER TECHS: Extends Bounce

• RES 4: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 3: $28.285 - High Jun 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $26.718/27.245 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 17
• PRICE: $26.637 @ 07:25 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: $25.949/529 - Low Jul 1 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver continues to trade higher and has breached resistance at $26.495, Jun 18 high. The break of this level neutralises a recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery. This has exposed $27.245, high Jun 17. A failure to hold onto current strength though would refocus attention on the key support and bear trigger at $25.529, Jun 29 low. Clearance of this level resumes recent bearish pressure.