MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Rally Firms, Double Top Looms for GBP/USD

Price Signal Summary – USD Rally Firms, Double Top Looms for GBP/USD

• The S&P E-Minis trend condition is bearish and yesterday’s move lower signals the end of the recent corrective bounce. A continuation lower would pave the way for weakness towards the next key support at 3925.00, Mar 2 low. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain above key support - the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. The line intersects at 4230.60. While channel support holds, the broader uptrend remains intact.
• GBPUSD traded sharply lower Tuesday to confirm a resumption of the current bear cycle. The break lower has resulted in a print below key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a potential medium-term reversal and confirm a double top pattern on the daily scale. USDJPY rallied Tuesday, cementing the near-term bullish outlook. The breach of 137.09, Mar 2 high, confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and attention turns to resistance at 138.17, the Dec 15 high and a key short-term resistance. The current AUDUSD downtrend remains intact and Tuesday’s sharp sell-off and resumption of weakness reinforces and strengthens the bearish theme. The break lower has confirmed a bear flag formation on the daily chart.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish and yesterday’s strong sell-off reinforces this theme. The move lower signals the end of the recent corrective bounce and attention is on support and the bear trigger, at $1804.9. A sharp sell-off in WTI futures Tuesday has defined a key near-term resistance at $80.94, the Feb 7 high. A break above this hurdle is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme that would open $82.89, the Jan 23 high and a key resistance.
• Bund futures are consolidating. The trend outlook remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Gilt futures remain above 99.20, the Feb 28 low. Despite the recent bounce, trend conditions are bearish and last week’s lows reinforce the current direction. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Pierces The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0745 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 1.0694 High Mar 6 / 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.0655 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0532 @ 05:52 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 1.0525 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0461 38.2% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0404 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURUSD reversed sharply Tuesday and the pair has edged lower today. This has resulted in a print below support at 1.0533, the Feb 27 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.0484, the Jan 6 low and a key support. A trendline support lies at 1.0394 - the line is drawn from the Sep 28 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.0694, the Feb 6 and 7 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Double Top Reversal Pattern

• RES 4: 1.2182 High Feb 15
• RES 3: 1.2147 High Feb 21 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 1.2038 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1915 Low Feb 17
• PRICE: 1.1830 @ 06:07 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 1.1820 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1756 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.1711 Low Nov 14 2022
• SUP 4: 1.1647 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 - Jan 23 bull phase

GBPUSD traded sharply lower Tuesday to confirm a resumption of the current bear cycle. The break lower has resulted in a print below key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a potential medium-term reversal and confirm a double top pattern on the daily scale. This would open 1.1647, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is seen at 1.1915, the Feb 17 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8979 High Feb 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8929 High Feb 17
• RES 1: 0.8925 High Mar 07
• PRICE: 0.8907 @ 06:58 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 0.8851/24 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 0.8755 Low Feb 28 and key support and 100-dma
• SUP 3: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP short-term conditions remain bullish. The cross has topped resistance at a trendline drawn from the early February highs - the line intersects at 0.8864. A continuation higher would expose 0.8929, the Feb 17 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, reinforcing current conditions. On the downside, a break of 0.8755, the Feb 28 low is required to reinstate the recent downleg.

USDJPY TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 141.61 High Nov 23
• RES 3: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct 21 and Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 138.15/17 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band / High Dec 15
• PRICE: 137.67 @ 06:19 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 135.37 Low Mar 6
• SUP 2: 134.79 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 134.02 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 132.90 High Feb 6

USDJPY rallied Tuesday, cementing the near-term bullish outlook. The breach of 137.09, Mar 2 high, confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and attention turns to resistance at 138.17, the Dec 15 high and a key short-term resistance. Clearance of this level would reinforce bullish conditions. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards 139.59, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at 135.37.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Flag

• RES 4: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 3: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 2: 146.73 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 145.80 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg
• PRICE: 145.01 @ 07:17 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 143.61 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 142.74/15 50-day EMA / Low Feb 24 and a key support
• SUP 3: 141.52 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 140.14 Low Feb 13

EURJPY remains in consolidation mode and the recent pause appears to be a bull flag. Trend conditions are bullish and fresh gains last week maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 145.80 the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg and 146.73, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, key short-term support to watch has been defined at 142.15, Feb 24 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Impulsive Sell-Off Reinforces Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6877 Former trendline support drawn from Oct 13 2022 low
• RES 2: 0.6784/6803 High Mar 1 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6695 Low Mar 1
• PRICE: 0.6593 @ 06:33 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 0.6547 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 2: 0.6500 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

The current AUDUSD downtrend remains intact and Tuesday’s sharp sell-off and resumption of weakness reinforces and strengthens the bearish theme. The break lower has confirmed a bear flag formation on the daily chart. Prices have taken out key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6784, the Mar 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Trigger Cleared

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3881 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3855 High Oct 21
• RES 1: 1.3800 61.8% of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 2022 bear leg
• PRICE: 1.3756 @ 06:51 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 1.3665 High Feb 24
• SUP 2: 1.3547 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3496 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21

USDCAD made a convincing break higher Tuesday, taking out the bull trigger at the Dec 16 high of 1.3705. This reinforces bullish conditions, clearing the way for a test on the 1.3800 Fibonacci retracement and above. A break of 1.3800 would open the 2.0% 10-dma envelope of 1.3881. The support to watch lies at the 20-day EMA - it intersects at 1.3547. A pullback would be considered corrective.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 133.36 High Feb 27
• RES 3: 132.88 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.63 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 132.01 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 130.90 @ 05:16 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 130.35 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 130.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 129.26 2.382 proj of the Jan 18 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 128.79 2.50 proj of the Jan 18 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing

Bund futures are consolidating. The trend outlook remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 130.00 handle next. Initial firm resistance is seen at 132.88, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is 130.35, last week’s low.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 116.890 High Feb 24 and key resistance
• RES 3: 116.390 High Feb 27
• RES 2: 116.060 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 115.440/770 High Mar 6 / 1
• PRICE: 114.860 @ 05:12 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 114.740 Low Mar 6
• SUP 2: 114.730 3.00 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 recent price swing
• SUP 3: 114.560 3.236 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 recent price swing
• SUP 4: 114.455 3.382 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 recent price swing

Bobl futures traded lower Monday. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and reinforces the current downtrend. Note that the trend is oversold - any short-term gains would be considered corrective and would allow the oversold reading to unwind. For now, the focus is on 114.730, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 115.440, the Mar 6 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Bear Cycle Extension

• RES 4: 105.260 High Feb 24 and key resistance
• RES 3: 105.060 High Feb 27
• RES 2: 104.935 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 104.735/840 High Mar 2 / 1
• PRICE: 104.375 @ 05:35 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 104.355 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 104.336 4.618 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 recent price swing
• SUP 3: 104.307 4.764 proj of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.000 Round number support

Schatz futures remain in a clear downtrend and this week’s move lower confirmed once again, a resumption of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, reinforcing the current bearish theme. The focus is on a move towards 104.336 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 104.735, the Mar 2 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 103.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 102.20 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 101.92 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 100.69/100.98 High Mar 1 / High Feb 27
• PRICE:100.08 @ Close Mar 7
• SUP 1: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 99.17 1.382 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing
• SUP 3: 98.94 1.50 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 98.70 1.618 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing

Gilt futures remain above 99.20, the Feb 28 low. Despite the recent bounce, trend conditions are bearish and last week’s lows reinforce the current direction. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that the 100.00 handle has been breached. A continuation lower would open 99.17, the 1.382 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing. On the upside, resistance is seen at 100.98, the Feb 27 high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Bounce Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 113.72 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 113.43 High Feb 24 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 112.74 High Feb 27
• RES 1: 112.47 High Mar 6
• PRICE: 111.48 @ Close Mar 7
• SUP 1: 110.25 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 110.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 109.55 1.618 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 109.20 1.764 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 price swing

BTP futures traded to a fresh short-term trend low of 110.25 on Mar 2. The move down maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and this reinforces the downtrend. The focus is on the 110.00 handle and 109.55, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, recent gains are considered corrective. Initial resistance is seen at 112.47, Monday’s high. Key short-term resistance is at 113.43, the Feb 24 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Bull Channel Support Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 4446.00 3.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rally from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4328.00 High Mar 6
• PRICE: 4270.00 @ 06:25 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 4230.60 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 13 low
• SUP 2: 4175.00/4156.90 Low Feb 24 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3955.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain above key support - the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. The line intersects at 4230.60. While channel support holds, the broader uptrend remains intact. Monday’s gains resulted in a test of 4323.00, the Feb 16 high and bull trigger. A clear break would resume the uptrend. On the downside, a breach of the channel base alters the picture.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Watching Support

• RES 4: 4208.50 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4141.59 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 2 bear le
• RES 2: 4100.20 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 4082.50 High Mar 6
• PRICE:3990.25 @ 08:01 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 3974.00 Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: 3925.00/3901.75 Low Mar 2 / Low Jan 19
• SUP 3: 3787.62 76.4% retracement of the Dec 22 - Feb 2 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 3819.00 Low Jan 6

The S&P E-Minis trend condition is bearish and yesterday’s move lower signals the end of the recent corrective bounce. A continuation lower would pave the way for weakness towards the next key support at 3925.00, Mar 2 low. This level is a bear trigger and a breach would confirm a resumption of the bear leg that started on Feb 2. For bulls, a break of 4082.50, the Mar 6 high, is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Fails To Hold On To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: $91.48 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $88.78 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $86.75 - High Mar 7
• PRICE: $83.19 @ 07:12 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: $82.36 - Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: $80.25/78.84 - Low Feb 23 / 6
• SUP 3: $77.76 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: $76.04 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger

Brent futures stalled at $86.75 yesterday and this level represents a key near-term resistance. A break of this hurdle is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme and this would open $88.78, the Jan 23 high. Key short-term support has been defined at $80.25, the Feb 23 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme. Initial firm support to watch lies at $82.36, the Mar 3 low.

WTI TECHS: (J3) Pullback Exposes Support At $75.83

• RES 4: $86.05 - High Feb 14
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $82.89 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $80.94 - High Feb 7
• PRICE: $77.41 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: $75.83 - Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: $73.80 - Low Feb 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $72.64 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 4: $70.86 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger

A sharp sell-off in WTI futures Tuesday has defined a key near-term resistance at $80.94, the Feb 7 high. A break above this hurdle is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme that would open $82.89, the Jan 23 high and a key resistance. On the downside, support to watch lies at $75.83, the Mar 3 low. A continuation lower and a breach of this level would strengthen a bearish case and open $73.80, the Feb 22 low.

GOLD TECHS: Sell-Off Exposes The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: $1900.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $1890.2 - High Feb 9
• RES 2: $1870.5 - High Feb 14
• RES 1: $1858.3 - High Mar 6 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $1813.8 @ 07:06 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: $1804.9 - Low Feb 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1792.6 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: $1787.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish and yesterday’s strong sell-off reinforces this theme. The move lower signals the end of the recent corrective bounce and attention is on support and the bear trigger, at $1804.9. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open $1787.3, a Fibonacci retracement. The yellow metal needs to breach $1858.3, the Mar 6 high, to signal scope for a stronger reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $23.606 - High Feb 3
• RES 3: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $22.069 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $21.306 - High Mar 6
• PRICE: $20.067 @ 08:19 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: $19.914 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 3: $19.232 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: $18.835 - Low Nov 3 2022

Silver remains in a downtrend and yesterday’s sharp sell-off confirmed a resumption of the downtrend - support at $20.424, the Feb 28, has been breached. The break lower has also resulted in a print below the psychological $20.00 handle and this paves the way for a move towards $19.232, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $21.306, the Mar 6 high.