MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Clears Key Resistance

Price Signal Summary – USDJPY Clears Key Resistance

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish - this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher again yesterday delivering another fresh cycle high that confirms a resumption of the current uptrend. This reinforces the bullish importance of the recent break of a key resistance at the Dec 14 high of 4634.00.
• The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and the pair has appreciated this week. Key resistance at 148.80, the Jan 19 high, has been cleared. A continuation higher would confirm a clear break and a resumption of the uptrend that started late December. A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The latest break to fresh cycle lows confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for weakness towards 0.6453, the Nov 17 low. A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. The break in January of support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low, strengthened current conditions.
• Gold is unchanged and the metal continues to trade above the Jan 17 low of $2001.9. Recent short-term gains improved a bullish condition and a resumption of the bull cycle would signal scope for a climb towards $2088.5, the Dec 28 high. WTI futures traded higher Thursday. The recovery - for now - appears to be a correction. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $79.29, the Jan 29 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development.
• Bund futures remain in a bearish mode. The contract has traded below the key short-term support at 133.55, the Jan 25 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 100.62, the Feb 1 high. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme and this would open 100.76, 50.0% of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg.

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Flag

• RES 4: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 3: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 2: 1.0932 High Jan 24 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.0838/98 20-day EMA / High Feb 02
• PRICE: 1.0772 @ 05:44 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 1.0724/23 Low Dec 8 / Low Feb 5 and 6
• SUP 2: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0656 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 1.0611 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg

EURUSD maintains a bearish theme and the pair continues to trade just above its recent lows. The recent pause appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern. The recent sell-off confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 1.0724, the Dec 8 low, and 1.0712, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this support zone would strengthen the bearish theme. Key resistance is 1.0932, the Jan 24 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2664/2775 20-day EMA / High Jan 24
• RES 1: 1.2641 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2615 @ 05:52 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 1.2519 Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17

A bearish condition in GBPUSD remains intact. The recent sell-off resulted in a clear break of 1.2597, the Jan 17 low and the base of a recent range. The clear range breakout strengthens a bearish condition and opens 1.2500, the Dec 13 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2664, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is unchanged at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high. Short-term gains are considered corrective.

EURGBP TECHS: MA Studies Remain In A Bear-Mode Position

• RES 4: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 2: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 1: 0.8572/8593 High Feb 5 and 6 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8539 @ 06:11 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 0.8513 Low Jan 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 61.8% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. The break in January of support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low, strengthened current conditions and sights are on 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low and a key support. The 50-day EMA - at 0.8593 - is the firm resistance to watch. A clear break of it would concern bears.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 151.43 High Nov 16
• RES 3: 150.78 High Nov 17
• RES 2: 149.75 High Nov 22
• RES 1: 149.49 Intraday High
• PRICE: 149.38 @ 06:49 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 147.39/145.90 20-day EMA / Low Feb 1 and key support
• SUP 2: 145.59 Low Jan 16
• SUP 3: 144.36 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 143.42 Low Jan 9

The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and the pair has appreciated this week. Key resistance at 148.80, the Jan 19 high, has been cleared. A continuation higher would confirm a clear break and a resumption of the uptrend that started late December. 149.16, 76.4% of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg, has also been breached. This opens 149.75, the Nov 22 high. Key short-term support is unchanged at 145.90, the Feb 1 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 163.72 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 162.25 High Nov 29
• RES 2: 161.86 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 160.97 High Jan 25
• PRICE: 160.80 @ 16:15 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: 158.92/08 Low Feb 7 / 1 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 157.21 Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 156.08 Low Jan 4
• SUP 4: 155.08 Low Jan 2

EURJPY traded sharply higher Thursday. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.08, the Feb 1 low. A clear break of this level is required to resume bearish pressure and open 157.21, the Jan 9 low. This would highlight an extension of a corrective cycle. For bulls, a stronger reversal would refocus attention on 161.86, the Jan 19 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would reinstate the recent bullish theme.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
• RES 1: 0.6573/6625 20-day EMA / High Jan 30 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6506 @ 07:50 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 0.6469 Low Feb 05
• SUP 2: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
• SUP 3: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14

A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The latest break to fresh cycle lows confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for weakness towards 0.6453, the Nov 17 low. Moving average studies have crossed into a bear-mode set-up, strengthening a bearish theme. Key short-term resistance to watch is unchanged at 0.6625, the Jan 30 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 1.3542/44 High Jan 17 / Feb 5 and 6 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3459 @ 07:53 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 1.3448/3359 20-day EMA / Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 3: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 1.3229 Low Feb 1

USDCAD remains below its recent highs. Attention is on key short-term resistance at 1.3542, the Jan 17 high. For bulls, a clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Dec 27 and open 1.3623, 61.8% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. Key support to watch lies at 1.3359, the Jan 31 low. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a bearish development. First support lies at 1.3448, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Breaches Support

• RES 4: 137.96 High Jan 4
• RES 3: 137.59 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 2: 136.82 61.8% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 1: 134.72/136.29 20-day EMA / High Feb 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 133.50 @ 05:21 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 133.34 Low Feb 8
• SUP 2: 132.89 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase
• SUP 3: 132.29 Low Nov 29
• SUP 4: 131.49 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase

Bund futures remain in a bearish mode. The contract has traded below the key short-term support at 133.55, the Jan 25 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 27. The focus is on 132.89, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, clearance of 136.29, the Feb 1 high, is required to signal a reversal Initial resistance is at 134.72, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Bearish Trend Condition

• RES 4: 119.228 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 3: 119.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 118.856 61.8% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 1: 117.848/118.660 20-day EMA / High Jan 31
• PRICE: 117.090 @ 05:46 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 2: 116.830 Low Nov 29
• SUP 3: 116.390 Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: 115.820 Low Nov 24

A bearish cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the contract has traded lower this week. This has resulted in a breach of key support and a bear trigger at 117.280, the Jan 25 low. The clear break confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 27 and opens 116.830, the Nov 29 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.660, the Jan 31 high. A break would be a bullish development.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Southbound

• RES 4: 106.215 High Jan 31 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 106.070 High Feb 2
• RES 2: 105.943 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.760 Low Jan 25
• PRICE: 105.625 @ 06:00 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 105.590 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 105.470 Low Nov 28
• SUP 3: 105.260 Low Nov 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 105.195 2.00 projection of the Jan 12 - 25 - 31 price swing

A downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and this week’s move lower reinforces this condition. The contract has breached support at 105.760, the Jan 25 low and bear trigger. The clear break of the support confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 29 and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 105.470, the Nov 28 low. Key resistance has been defined at 106.215, the Jan 31 high.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 101.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 3: 101.98 High Jan 3
• RES 2: 100.76 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 1: 99.05/100.62 20-day EMA / High Feb 1 and key resistance
• PRICE: 97.89 @ Close Feb 8
• SUP 1: 97.57 Low Jan 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 97.39 Low Dec 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: 96.67 Low Dec 5
• SUP 4: 96.10 Low Nov 30

A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 100.62, the Feb 1 high. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme and this would open 100.76, 50.0% of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg. Attention is on key support and the bear trigger at 97.57, the Jan 25 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.27/77 High Jan 30 / 4
• PRICE: 117.14 @ Close Feb 8
• SUP 1: 116.98 Low Jan 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8
• SUP 3: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 113.31 Low Nov 28

BTP futures are unchanged and continue to trade below the Jan 30 high of 119.27. The contract has recently pierced resistance at the Jan 12 high of 119.23. A resumption of gains and a clear break of 119.23 would highlight a base and a potential continuation of the primary uptrend. For now, attention is on key support at 116.98, Jan 25 low. Clearance of this level would resume the recent bearish cycle and open 115.70, the Dec 8 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4788.1 1.764 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4753.50 1.618 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 4737.00 High Feb 8
• PRICE: 4718.00 @ 06:20 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 4618.30 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4535.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4402.00 Low Jan 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4370.00 Low Nov 28

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher again yesterday delivering another fresh cycle high that confirms a resumption of the current uptrend. This reinforces the bullish importance of the recent break of a key resistance at the Dec 14 high of 4634.00. The clear breach of the 4700.00 handle paves the way for a climb towards 4753.50, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 4618.30, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 5110.50 2.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5050.14 1.764 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 5020.00 High Feb 7
• PRICE: 5015.50 @ 07:11 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 4913.92 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4866.000/4796.82 Low Jan 31 / 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 4702.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 4594.00 Low Nov 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish - this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Recent corrections have been shallow - this also highlights a strong uptrend. The focus is on 5050.14, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial key short-term support has been defined at 4866.00, the Jan 31 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J4) Rally Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $87.12 - High Oct 27
• RES 3: $86.03 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 15 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 2: $84.17 - High Jan 29 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $81.90 - High Feb 8
• PRICE: $81.52 @ 07:02 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: $76.62 - Low Feb 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: $74.82 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 3: $72.96 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.99 - Low Jun 23 ‘23

Brent futures traded sharply higher yesterday. For now, the climb is considered corrective, however, a continuation of the rally would expose key short-term resistance at $84.17, the Jan 29 high. Clearance of this level would cancel the recent bearish threat and highlight a stronger reversal. On the downside, the trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is $76.62, the Feb 5 low.

WTI TECHS: (H4) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: $86.68 - High Sep 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $85.71 - High Oct 20
• RES 2: $82.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $76.95/79.29 - High Feb 1 / High Jan 29 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $76.21 @ 07:09 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: $71.41 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: $69.56 - Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: $68.28 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $65.63 - Low Jun 12

WTI futures traded higher Thursday. The recovery - for now - appears to be a correction. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $79.29, the Jan 29 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, support to watch lies at $71.41, the Feb 5 low. A break of this level would reinstate the recent bearish theme and pave the way for a move towards $69.56, the Jan 3 low.

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 3: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 2: $2088.5 - High Jan 12 / High Dec 28
• RES 1: $2065.5 - High Feb 1
• PRICE: $2033.5 @ 07:14 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: $2015.0/2001.9 - Low Feb 5 / Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold is unchanged and the metal continues to trade above the Jan 17 low of $2001.9. Recent short-term gains improved a bullish condition and a resumption of the bull cycle would signal scope for a climb towards $2088.5, the Dec 28 high and a key resistance. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would instead refocus attention on $2001.9, where a break is required to reinstate the recent bearish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Conditions Intact

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $23.534 - High Jan 12
• PRICE: $22.687 @ 07:26 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 2023

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent breach of support at $22.510, the Dec 13 low, signals scope for a move to $21.883, the Nov 13 low. A break of this support would further strengthen the bearish theme. On the upside, initial key short-term resistance to watch is $23.534, the Jan 12 high. Clearance of this level would be bullish and highlight a stronger reversal.