MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Futures Remain in Bear Mode

Price Signal Summary – WTI Futures Remain in Bear Mode

• S&P E-minis trend conditions remain bullish and the latest pullback is -for now - considered corrective. Last week’s bounce from 4114.00, May 24 low, means that support around the 50-day EMA remains intact. The average intersects at 4132.56 and a clear break of it is required to signal a reversal. Eurostoxx 50 futures managed to find support last week at 4252.00, the May 25 low. This means that for now, support at the 50-day EMA, at 4272.40, remains intact. The contract is trading lower today. A clear break of the EMA would open 4233.00, May 4 low and a key short-term support.
• Recent short-term gains in GBPUSD are considered corrective, for now, and the trend direction remains down. Price has recently breached the 50-day EMA and 1.2345, the Apr 10 low. A resumption of the downtrend would open 1.2242, a Fibonacci retracement. USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and a pullback is considered corrective - for now. The pair has this week tested resistance at the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Jan 16 low which intersects at 140.86. This is a key resistance and a clear break of it would reinforce bullish conditions. AUDUSD remains bearish and the pair is trading lower today. Price is through last week’s low and this confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The yellow metal has pierced $1940.2, trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. WTI futures remain in a bear mode position. The strong sell-off yesterday resulted in print below support at $69.39, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and pave the way for weakness towards $63.90, the May 4 low.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer tone as the contract extends this week’s recovery. Price has cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this strengthens the current bull cycle. Gilt futures remain in a bear mode position and last week’s extension lower reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend and recently, on the continuation chart, price has cleared a number of key support levels.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 3: 1.0905 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.0824/48 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0759 High May 26
• PRICE: 1.0696 @ 05:50 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 1.0673 Low May 30
• SUP 2: 1.0653 76.4% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.0631 Low Mar 20
• SUP 4: 1.0608 Low Mar 17

The EURUSD trend needle continues to point south and the pair is trading lower today. A fresh trend low yesterday reinforces bearish conditions. The 1.0713 objective has been breached, the Mar 24 low and this paves the way for a move towards 1.0653 next, a Fibonacci retracement point and the next key support. A firm resistance is seen at 1.0824, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to ease current bearish pressure.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2547/2641 High May 16 / 11
• RES 2: 1.2493 High May 18
• RES 1: 1.2434/46 20-day EMA / High May 30
• PRICE: 1.2388 @ 06:05 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 1.2308 Low May 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.2242 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run
• SUP 4: 1.2213 Low Mar 27

Recent short-term gains in GBPUSD are considered corrective, for now, and the trend direction remains down. Price has recently breached the 50-day EMA and 1.2345, the Apr 10 low. A resumption of the downtrend would open 1.2242, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger is 1.2308, the May 25 low. On the upside, firm resistance at 1.2434, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would signal a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 3: 0.8814 High May 4
• RES 2: 0.8748 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8706 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8632 @ 06:18 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 0.8628 Low May 30
• SUP 2: 0.8593 Low Dec 15 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8547 Low Dec 1 2022 and key support

The EURGBP trend needle continues to point south and the cross is trading at its recent lows. Price traded to a fresh YTD low yesterday and confirmed a breach of 0.8661, the May 11 low. This maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs and it is worth noting that 50- and 200-dmas are on the cusp of death cross - a bearish technical signal. The focus is on 0.85983, the Dec 15 low. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8706 the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Channel Top Offers Resistance

• RES 4: 142.25 High Nov 21 2022
• RES 3: 141.98 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 141.61 High Nov 23 2022
• RES 1: 140.86/93 Bull channel top from the Jan 16 low / High May 30
• PRICE: 139.37 @ 06:47 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 138.83 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 138.23 Low May 24
• SUP 3: 137.79 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 137.43 Low May 19

USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and a pullback is considered corrective - for now. The pair has this week tested resistance at the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Jan 16 low which intersects at 140.86. This is a key resistance and a clear break of it would reinforce bullish conditions and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high. For bears, a stronger reversal would highlight a potential top. Key support to watch is 137.79, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective - For Now

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 151.07 High May 29
• PRICE: 149.15 @ 06:59 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 148.84 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 147.43/146.83 13 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 146.13 Low May 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: 145.67 High Mar 31

EURJPY maintains a short-term bullish tone and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Last week’s move higher resulted in a breach of 150.32, 76.4% of the May 2 - 11 sell-off. The break opens 151.61, the May 2 high and a bull trigger. The 50-day EMA, which intersects at 147.43, remains intact and is a key support. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal a reversal. Initial support lies at 148.84, the May 24 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.6818 High May 10 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6710 High May 16
• RES 2: 0.6614/66 20- and 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6559/74 High May 30 / Low Apr 28
• PRICE: 0.6482 @ 08:29 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 0.6476 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10 2022
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022

AUDUSD remains bearish and the pair is trading lower today. Price is through last week’s low and this confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 0.6403 Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a breach of 0.6818 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6666, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Eyeing Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3730 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 low
• RES 2: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 1: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3640 @ 08:03 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 1.3539 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3485/3404 Low May 23 / 16
• SUP 3: 1.3363/15 Low May 11 / 8
• SUP 4: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support

USDCAD bullish conditions remain intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Sights are set on resistance at 1.3668, the Apr 28 high and a key level. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the case for bulls and pave the way for a move towards 1.3695, the Apr 28 high. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 1.3485, the May 23 low. A break of this level would signal a potential short-term reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Clears The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 138.09 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 137.29 High May 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 136.38 High May 16
• RES 1: 135.88 High May 17
• PRICE: 135.53 @ 05:18 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 134.15 Low May 30
• SUP 2: 132.83 Low May 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.71 76.4%retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 132.37 Low Mar 10

Bund futures maintain a firmer tone as the contract extends this week’s recovery. Price has cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this strengthens the current bull cycle. A continuation higher would open 136.38, the May 16 high ahead of a key resistance at 137.29, the May 11 high. On the downside, initial support lies at 134.15, the May 30 low. A break is required to signal bearish reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Short-Term Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 119.020 High May 11
• RES 3: 118.610 High May 11
• RES 2: 118.240 High May 17
• RES 1: 118.000 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 117.830 @ 05:29 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 117.080/116.550 Low May 30 / 26
• SUP 2: 116.420 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.170 Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: 115.700 Low Mar 10

Bobl futures started the week on a firmer note and the contract is trading higher again today. Price is also trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this strengthens the short-term bull cycle. A continuation higher would open the 118.000 handle and 118.240, the May 17 high. Further out, key short-term resistance is at 119.120, the May 4 high. On the downside, initial support is at yesterday’s low of 117.080. A break would be bearish.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Testing Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 105.910 High May 16
• RES 3: 105.775 High May 17
• RES 2: 105.625 High May 18
• RES 1: 105.589 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 105.525 @ 05:33BST May 31
• SUP 1: 105.300/160 Low May 30 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 104.695 Low Mar 10

Schatz futures are holding on to this week’s gains. The contract is testing resistance at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 105.522. A continuation higher would expose the 50-day EMA, at 105.589 and clearance of this area of resistance is required to strengthen the current bullish cycle. This would open 105.625, the May 18 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger, has been defined at 105.160, the May 26 low.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 97.78 High May 23
• RES 2: 97.58 Low May 19
• RES 1: 96.66 Intraday high
• PRICE: 96.50 @ 08:14 May 31
• SUP 1: 94.21 Low May 26
• SUP 2: 94.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 93.45 1.618 projection of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 92.66 Low Oct 14 2022 (cont)

Gilt futures remain in a bear mode position and last week’s extension lower reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend and recently, on the continuation chart, price has cleared a number of key support levels. The focus is on the 94.00 handle next. Initial resistance is seen at 96.66, today’s intraday high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.17 High Mar 24 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 116.17 76.4% retracement of the Mar 24 - Apr 24 downleg
• PRICE: 115.93 @ 08:14 May 31
• SUP 1: 114.06/112.60 Low May 30 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 111.05 Low Mar 8
• SUP 4: 110.79 Low Mar 7

BTP futures traded higher again Tuesday. The contract is through the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this strengthens current short-term bullish conditions. Today’s gains have resulted in a print above 115.89, the May 11 high. A clear break of this level would expose 117.17 further out, the Mar 24 high. On the downside, initial support lies at 114.06, yesterday’s low. A break would instead signal a possible reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4510.50 0.618 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 3: 4457.50 0.5 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 2: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• PRICE: 4275.00 @ 06:38 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 4252.00 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 4233.00 Low May 4 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures managed to find support last week at 4252.00, the May 25 low. This means that for now, support at the 50-day EMA, at 4272.40, remains intact. The contract is trading lower today. A clear break of the EMA would open 4233.00, May 4 low and a key short-term support. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. The bull trigger is at 4409.50, the Nov 18 2021 high (cont) and is a major resistance.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 4327.50 High Aug 16 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 1: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 4198.25 @ 07:56 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 4165.17/4114.00 20-day EMA / Low May 24
• SUP 2: 4062.25 Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg

S&P E-minis trend conditions remain bullish and the latest pullback is -for now - considered corrective. Last week’s bounce from 4114.00, May 24 low, means that support around the 50-day EMA remains intact. The average intersects at 4132.56 and a clear break of it is required to signal a reversal. Key resistance is at 4244.00, the Feb 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend that started on Mar 13.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $85.08 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.88 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $78.16/80.53 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 28
• RES 1: $76.58 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $73.43 @ 06:53 BST May 31
• SUP 1: $73.20/71.28 - Low May 30 / 4
• SUP 2: $70.10 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures traded sharply lower Tuesday. This reinforces short-term bearish conditions and resulted in a print below support at $73.49, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for weakness towards $71.28, the May 4 low and $70.10, the Mar 20 low and key support. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. Key resistance is at $78.16, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (N3) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $80.93 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.00 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.74 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $74.24/73 - 50-day EMA / High May 24
• PRICE: $69.32 @ 07:07 BST May 31
• SUP 1: $69.02/66.46 - Low May 30 / 76.4% of the May 4 - 24 rally
• SUP 2: $63.90 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures remain in a bear mode position. The strong sell-off yesterday resulted in print below support at $69.39, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and pave the way for weakness towards $63.90, the May 4 low. On the upside, key resistance is at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at $74.06, where a clear break would instead be seen as a bullish development.

GOLD TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2022.6/2063.0 - High May 12 / 4
• RES 2: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $1971.3. 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1961.7 07:23 BST May 31
• SUP 1: $1932.2/18.3 - Low May 31 / Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The yellow metal has pierced $1940.2, trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. A clear breach of this trendline would reinforce bearish conditions and pave the way for a move towards $1903.5, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. A breach of this level is required to signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Bears Still In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $23.849/24.492 - 20-day EMA / Low Apr 25
• PRICE: $23.336 @ 08:09 BST May 31
• SUP 1: $22.682 - Low May 26
• SUP 2: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

The Silver trend condition remains bearish. The May 11 sell-off confirmed a double top reversal pattern following the break of $24.492, the Apr 25 low. The subsequent bearish extension has reinforced the importance of this reversal signal. Sights are set on $22.284 next, a Fibonacci retracement level. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $24.492, the double top mid-point. Short-term gains appear to be a correction.