MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Pullback Extends, but M/T Trend Remains Bullish

Price Signal Summary – WTI Pullback Extends, but M/T Trend Remains Bullish

• S&P e-minis maintain a softer tone. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low last Friday and bears remain in the driver’s seat. Last week’s breach of support at 4235.50, Oct 4 low and bear trigger, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and price is trading just ahead of its recent lows. The recent break of support at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low and a bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence.
• GBPUSD continues to trade below its Oct 24 high. The trend outlook is unchanged and remains bearish. Attention is on 1.2037, Oct 4 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend that started in July and open 1.1964. USDJPY has recovered from Monday’s 148.81 low. This reinforces a bullish theme and highlights the fact that the recent move lower has been a correction. Last week’s breach of 150.16, the Oct 3 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The USDCAD trend needle continues to point north. Sights are on 1.3977, the Oct 13 2022 high. Last week’s break of resistance at the Mar 10 high of 1.3862, strengthens the bullish condition.
• Gold conditions are unchanged - the metal remains firm and traded to a fresh cycle high last Friday. Price has recently breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The continuation higher strengthens a bullish theme and opens $2022.2. WTI futures traded lower Monday as the pullback from $89.85, the Oct 20 high, extends. The medium-term trend condition is unchanged and remains bullish plus the recent move lower appears to be a correction.
• Bund futures are trading closer to their recent highs. A downtrend remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Initial firm support to watch is 127.18, the Oct 23 low. Gilt futures maintain a bearish theme and recent gains appear to be a correction. For bears, price has recently traded through key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for 90.38.

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.0862 50.0% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0809 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 1.0764 38.2% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0694/0737 High Oct 24 / High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.0598 @ 05:44 GMT Oct 31
• SUP 1: 1.0524/0496 Low Oct 26 / 13
• SUP 2: 1.0448 Low Oct 03 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0374 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURUSD short-term gains are considered corrective and the pair continues to trade below 1.0694, the Oct 24 high. The sell-off last week reinforces a bearish theme and suggests that the recent Oct 3 - 24 correction is over. Note too that the Oct 24 price pattern is a bearish engulfing candle - a reversal signal. A continuation lower would open 1.0496, Oct 13 low. The key support and bear trigger lies at 1.0448, Oct 3 low. 1.0694 is key resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.2548 High Sep 11
• RES 3: 1.2506 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 1.2438 200-dma
• RES 1: 1.2289/2337 High Oct 24 / 11 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2147 @ 05:56 GMT Oct 31
• SUP 1: 1.2037/28 Low Oct 04 and bear trigger / Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.1964 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1908 Low Mar 10

GBPUSD continues to trade below its Oct 24 high. The trend outlook is unchanged and remains bearish. Attention is on 1.2037, Oct 4 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend that started in July and open 1.1964, a 3.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing. For bulls, clearance of 1.2337, the Oct 11 high, would signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle and highlight a short-term base.

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 3: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 1: 0.8741 High Oct 20 / 30
• PRICE: 0.8725 @ 06:05 GMT Oct 31
• SUP 1: 0.8685 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8653/16 50-day EMA / Low Oct 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8558 Low Sep 11

A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. The breach of key short-term resistance at 0.8706, the Sep 26 high and a bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition too, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 0.8793, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8685, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 150.78/151.09 High Oct 26 / 2.764 proj of Jul 14-21-28 swing
• PRICE: 150.27 @ 06:36 GMT Oct 31
• SUP 1: 148.81/148.02 Low Oct 30 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 147.43 Low Oct 3 and key support
• SUP 3: 146.44 Low Sep 12
• SUP 4: 145.91 Low Sep 11

USDJPY has recovered from Monday’s 148.81 low. This reinforces a bullish theme and highlights the fact that the recent move lower has been a correction. Last week’s breach of 150.16, the Oct 3 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this reflects the market's positive sentiment. Sights are on 151.09, a Fibonacci projection. The 50-day EMA, at 148.02 is firm support.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 161.52 2.618 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.94 2.50 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 160.36 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.92 High Oct 24 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 159.40 @ 06:50 GMT Oct 31
• SUP 1: 157.72 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 156.98 Low Oct 16
• SUP 3: 155.83 Low Oct 4
• SUP 4: 154.46 Oct 3 and the bear trigger

The trend outlook in EURJPY remains bullish and the recovery from yesterday’s low signals the end of the recent corrective pullback. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 159.92, Oct 24 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 160.36, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 157.72, the 50-day EMA. Key support is far off at 154.46, the Oct 3 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Off Lows As Correction Extends

• RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6445/6501 High Oct 11 / High Sep 29
• RES 1: 0.6406 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6365 @ 07:50 GMT Oct 31
• SUP 1: 0.6272/70 Low Nov 3 2022 / Oct 26 and key support
• SUP 2: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6135 2.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

Short-term gains in AUDUSD are considered corrective. The trend outlook is bearish and last week’s low print reinforces current conditions. Price has pierced 0.6286, Oct 3 / 13 low. A clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6215, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend resistance is at 0.6522, Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Clearance of this level is required to highlight a reversal. Initial resistance is 0.6406, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Up

• RES 4: 1.4070 1.236 proj of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 - Oct 10 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4031 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 1.3881 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 1.3836 @ 07:58 GMT Oct 31
• SUP 1: 1.3790 Low Oct 26
• SUP 2: 1.3711/3615 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 1.3477 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3417 Low Sep 29

The USDCAD trend needle continues to point north. Sights are on 1.3977, the Oct 13 2022 high. Last week’s break of resistance at the Mar 10 high of 1.3862, strengthens the bullish condition. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting an uptrend and reflecting positive market sentiment. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 1.3711, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 131.33 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 3: 130.43 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 2: 130.20 High Oct 12 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 129.41 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 128.89 @ 05:17 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 127.18 Low Oct 23
• SUP 2: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 125.49 0.764 proj of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Bund futures are trading closer to their recent highs. A downtrend remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Initial firm support to watch is 127.18, the Oct 23 low. A break would be a bearish development and expose the bear trigger at 126.62. On the upside, resistance is at 129.41, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this average would instead signal scope for a stronger recovery.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 116.966 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
• RES 3: 116.740 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 116.567 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
• RES 1: 116.500 High Oct 10 and the short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 116.190 @ 05:22 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 115.850 20-daay EMA
• SUP 2: 115.480/130 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 3: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 114.710 Low Aug 15 (cont)

The Bobl futures trend outlook remains bearish and short-term gains appear to be a correction - for now. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at 114.880, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance and a bull trigger to watch is at 116.500, the Oct 10 high. A break would signal a short-term reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 3: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 2: 105.320 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 105.245 High Oct 30
• PRICE: 105.165 @ 05:26 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 105.037 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 104.800/765 Low Oct 19 / Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. The broader trend outlook is bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance is at 105.320, the Oct 10 high and marks the short-term bull trigger. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 104.765, the Sep 21 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Initial resistance is at 105.245, the Oct 13 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Gains Appear To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 96.05 High Sep 25
• RES 3: 95.66 High Oct 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 93.82/94.28 61.8% of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg / High Oct 16
• RES 1: 93.34 High Oct 24
• PRICE: 92.64 @ Close Oct 30
• SUP 1: 91.62/90.85 Low Oct 26 / 23
• SUP 2: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 3: 90.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 89.22 1.236 proj of the Sep 20 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Gilt futures maintain a bearish theme and recent gains appear to be a correction. For bears, price has recently traded through key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for 90.38, the Oct 12 2022 low (cont) and a major support. Initial resistance is at 93.34, the Oct 24 high. A clear break of this level would suggest scope for a stronger correction.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 113.69 76.4% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 112.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 111.59 50.0% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 111.17 High Oct 12 and key resistance
• PRICE: 110.11 @ Close Oct 30
• SUP 1: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

BTP futures traded higher Monday and a short-term corrective cycle remains in play - for now. The trend outlook is bearish. Recent weakness resulted in a print below key support at 107.62, the Oct 4 low. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the long-term downtrend and open 107.08, a Fibonacci projection. 111.17, the Oct 12 high, marks the key resistance. A break is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Bearish Trend Structure Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4192.50/4256.00 50-day EMA / High Oct 12
• RES 1: 4116.80 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4035.00 @ 05:44 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 4001.00 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 3979.00 1.00 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low Mar 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3873.20 1.382 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and price is trading just ahead of its recent lows. The recent break of support at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low and a bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. The focus is on the 4000.00 handle. Initial firm resistance is at 4116.80, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 4459.12 Trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high
• RES 3: 4430.50 High Oct 12
• RES 2: 4365.48 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4295.88/4285.39 Low Oct 4 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4175.50 @ 06:42 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 4122.25 LowOct 27
• SUP 2: 4100.00 Round number support 4124.19
• SUP 3: 4090.35 1.764 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4049.00 Low Mar 28

S&P e-minis maintain a softer tone. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low last Friday and bears remain in the driver’s seat. Last week’s breach of support at 4235.50, Oct 4 low and bear trigger, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. The focus is on 4100.00. Initial firm resistance is at 4285.39, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F4) Correction Still In Play

• RES 4: $100.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $98.99 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $93.20 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $92.32 - High Oct 20
• PRICE: $86.89 @ 07:17 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: $84.09/82.20- Low Oct 11 / 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $81.62 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $81.02 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $78.89 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

Brent futures traded lower Monday. The trend condition remains bullish and recent short-term weakness appears to be a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a rising trend. Key support lies at $82.20, the Oct 6 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $95.35, the Sep 28 high. For bears, a break of $83.44, would highlight a short-term top and stronger reversal.

WTI TECHS: (Z3) Bearish Correction Extends

• RES 4: $98.27 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: $96.03 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $92.48 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $85.90/89.85 - High Oct 27 / 20
• PRICE: $82.86 @ 07:05 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: $80.20 - Low Oct 6 and key support
• SUP 2: $77.74 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $75.47 - Low Jul 24
• SUP 4: $74.26 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

WTI futures traded lower Monday as the pullback from $89.85, the Oct 20 high, extends. The medium-term trend condition is unchanged and remains bullish plus the recent move lower appears to be a correction. A resumption of gains would expose the bull trigger at $92.48, the Sep 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. For bears, a move through $80.20, the Oct 6 low, would instead highlight a short-term top.

GOLD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 2: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 1: $2009.4 - High Oct 27
• PRICE: $1995.3 @ 07:18 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: $1943.2 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1945.3/1924.4 - Low Oct 19 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 4: $1844.3 - Low Oct 9

Gold conditions are unchanged - the metal remains firm and traded to a fresh cycle high last Friday. Price has recently breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The continuation higher strengthens a bullish theme and opens $2022.20 next, the May 15 high. Initial firm pivot support lies at $1924.4, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term top and a potential reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• RES 3: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 1: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $23.170 @ 08:04 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: $22.749/371 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 17
• SUP 2: $21.573/20.689 - Low Oct 9 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and the metal is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break of the 50-day average, at $22.858, strengthens bullish conditions and the move higher has opened $23.774, the Sep 22 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a break of $20.689, Oct 3 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Initial support to watch is $22.749, the 20-day EMA.