MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Takes Out Support, Prompting Stronger Reversal

Price Signal Summary – WTI Takes Out Support, Prompting Stronger Reversal

• S&P e-minis traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery still appears to be a correction, however, price has cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week as the correction from recent lows extends. Price has traded through resistance at both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The broader trend condition is bearish.
• GBPUSD traded sharply higher last Friday and this resulted in a break of resistance at 1.2289, the Oct 24 high as well as key resistance at 1.2337, the Oct 11 high. The move higher strengthens the bullish case and signals scope for a stronger short-term retracement. AUDUSD is trading lower today, extending the pullback from yesterday’s 0.6523 high. Despite the pullback, a short-term bull cycle remains in play. The pair recently breached the 50-day EMA and sights are on the key resistance at 0.6522. USDCAD traded sharply lower last week but has for now managed to find support - at yesterday’s 1.3629 low. The recovery means support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3641, stays intact. This suggests the move lower between Nov 1 - 6 has been a correction.
• The trend condition in Gold is unchanged - the uptrend remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Price has recently breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The medium-term trend condition in WTI futures remains bullish and the recent move lower still appears to be a correction. However, the contract has breached support at $80.20, the Oct 6 low. The break highlights a stronger short-term reversal.
• Bund futures traded higher last week. The contract maintains a firmer tone - for now - despite yesterday’s bearish start to the week. Price has recently traded through key resistance at 130.20, the Oct 12 high and a bull trigger. Gilt futures traded higher last week as the recovery from the Oct 23 low extends. The contract has cleared 93.82, 61.8% of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg and 94.52, the 76.4% retracement point. The continuation higher signals scope for a test of resistance at 95.66.

EURUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.0862 50.0% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0809 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 1.0764 38.2% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0756 High Nov 6
• PRICE: 1.0709 @ 05:50 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 1.0655 50- day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0613 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0517/0496 Low Nov 1/ 13
• SUP 4: 1.0448 Low Oct 03 and the bear trigger

EURUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s rally resulted in a break of key short-term resistance at 1.0694, the Oct 24 high. The break of this hurdle strengthens a bullish case and signals scope for a stronger short-term correction. Attention is on 1.0764, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm support to watch lies at 1.0517, the Nov 1 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish. Initial support is at 1.0655, the 50-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play - For Now

• RES 4: 1.2506 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 1.2459 38.2% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2435 200-dma
• RES 1: 1.2428 High Nov 6
• PRICE: 1.2337 @ 06:07 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 1.2305 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2217/1.2070 20-day EMA / Low Oct 26
• SUP 3: 1.2037/28 Low Oct 04 and bear trigger / Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support

GBPUSD traded sharply higher last Friday and this resulted in a break of resistance at 1.2289, the Oct 24 high as well as key resistance at 1.2337, the Oct 11 high. The move higher strengthens the bullish case and signals scope for a stronger short-term retracement. This has opened the 200-dma at 1.2435 and 1.2459, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.2217, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8722/8754 High Nov 3 / Oct 31 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8686 @ 06:17 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 0.8659/50 50-day EMA / Low Nov 6
• SUP 2: 0.8616 Low Oct 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8558 Low Sep 11

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch is 0.8659, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, however, a clear break is required to strengthen a bearish condition and signal scope for deeper retracement. This would open 0.8616, the Oct 11 low. For bulls, a break of 0.8754, the Oct 31 high, would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb to 0.8793, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 151.72 High Oct 31
• PRICE: 150.39 @ 07:39 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 149.21 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 148.81/148.47 Low Oct 30 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 147.43 Low Oct 3 and key support
• SUP 4: 146.44 Low Sep 12

The latest pullback in USDJPY appears to be a correction. The trend condition is bullish and support at the 50-day EMA - at 148.47 - remains intact. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of 150.78, the Oct 26 high, that confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has opened 152.20, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting the market's positive sentiment. A break of the 50-day EMA would signal a short-term top.

EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 162.80 1.00 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 162.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 161.52 2.618 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 161.01 Intraday high
• PRICE: 160.91 @ 06:56 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 158.81/158.16 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 157.70 Low Oct 30
• SUP 3: 156.98 Low Oct 16
• SUP 4: 155.83 Low Oct 4

The trend outlook in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross has traded to a fresh cycle high. The move higher once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 161.52, a Fibonacci projection, marks the next objective. On the downside, key short-term support lies at 158.16, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this average is required to highlight a top and the start of a correction.

AUDUSD TECHS: Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.8582 50.0% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6578 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.6522/23 High Aug 30 and Sep 1 / Nov 6 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6425 @ 07:39 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 0.6388 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6315/0.6270 Low Oct 31 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support

AUDUSD is trading lower today, extending the pullback from yesterday’s 0.6523 high. Despite the pullback, a short-term bull cycle remains in play. The pair recently breached the 50-day EMA and sights are on the key resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and expose 0.6582, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6388, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Finds Support Just Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.129 1.382 proj of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 - Oct 10 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4065 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 1.3761/3899 High Nov 3 / 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3737 @ 07:59 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 1.3641/29 50-day EMA / Low Nov 6
• SUP 2: 1.3576 Trendline support drawn from the Jul 14 low
• SUP 3: 1.3496 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3417 Low Sep 29

USDCAD traded sharply lower last week but has for now managed to find support - at yesterday’s 1.3629 low. The recovery means support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3641, stays intact. This suggests the move lower between Nov 1 - 6 has been a correction. The trend is up and moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. The bull trigger is 1.3899, the Nov 1 high. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would expose trendline support at 1.3576.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 131.82 High Sep 2
• RES 3: 131.49 HIgh Sep 14
• RES 2: 131.33 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 1: 130.76 High Nov 3
• PRICE: 129.53 @ 05:15 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 129.05 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 128.31/ 127.18 Low Oct 27 / 23
• SUP 3: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Bund futures traded higher last week. The contract maintains a firmer tone - for now - despite yesterday’s bearish start to the week. Price has recently traded through key resistance at 130.20, the Oct 12 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen current bullish conditions. This would open 131.33, 76.4% of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg. Firm support to watch is 128.31, the Oct 27 low. A breach would highlight a possible reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 117.610 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 117.230 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 116.966 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
• RES 1: 116.940 High Nov 3
• PRICE: 116.280 @ 05:17 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 116.116 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 115.850 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 115.480/130 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 4: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

A corrective cycle in Bobl futures is still in play and despite yesterday’s gains, the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Key short-term resistance at 116.500, the Oct 10 high, has been cleared and this signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Scope is seen for a move towards 116.966, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 bear leg. The 20-day EMA, at 116.116, is the first key support.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 105.560 High Sep 1
• RES 3: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 1: 105.335 High Nov 2
• PRICE: 105.090 @ 05:30 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 105.035 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 104.940/765 Low Oct 26 / Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures traded lower Monday. The broader trend outlook is bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. However, the contract did pierce resistance last week at 105.320, the Oct 10 high. A clear breach of this level would strengthen the short-term bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle. This would open 105.372, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm support is at 104.940, the Oct 26 low. A break would be bearish.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 96.71 High Sep 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 96.37 High Sep 22
• RES 2: 96.05 High Sep 25
• RES 1: 95.66 High Oct 12 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 94.58 @ Close Nov 6
• SUP 1: 93.82 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 93.48/92.63 20-day EMA / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 91.62/90.85 Low Oct 26 / 23
• SUP 4: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support

Gilt futures traded higher last week as the recovery from the Oct 23 low extends. The contract has cleared 93.82, 61.8% of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg and 94.52, the 76.4% retracement point. The continuation higher signals scope for a test of resistance at 95.66, the Oct 12 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish case. Initial firm support to watch is 92.63, the Nov 1 low. A break would be a bearish development.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Has Cleared Resistance

• RES 4: 115.56 High Aug 24
• RES 3: 114.01 High Sep 8
• RES 2: 113.69 76.4% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 112.76 High Nov 2
• PRICE: 111.52 @ Close Nov 6
• SUP 1: 110.88/110.23- and 20-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 3: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

BTP futures traded higher last week and a short-term corrective bull cycle remains in play - for now. The contract has breached resistance at 111.17, the Oct 12 high. This has strengthened current conditions and exposes 113.69, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 110.23, the 20-day EMA, where a break is required to signal a possible reversal. This would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Correction Remains In Play

• RES 4: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4256.00 High Oct 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4210.00 High Nov 3
• PRICE: 4161.00 @ 05:54 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 4129.70/4001.00 20-day EMA / Low Oct 27 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3979.00 1.00 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low Mar 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3873.20 1.382 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week as the correction from recent lows extends. Price has traded through resistance at both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The broader trend condition is bearish, however, a clear break of the 50-day average, at 4184.10, would signal scope for a stronger bull cycle and open 4256.00, the Oct 12 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger lies at 4001.0, the Oct 27 low.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Short-Term Bull Phase Remains In Play

• RES 4: 4508.00 High Sep 20
• RES 3: 4442.25Trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high
• RES 2: 4430.50 High Oct 12
• RES 1: 4391.75 High Nov 3
• PRICE: 4372.75 @ 07:16 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 4257.75/4122.25 Low Nov 3 / Low Oct 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4100.00 Round number support 4124.19
• SUP 3: 4090.35 1.764 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4049.00 Low Mar 28

S&P e-minis traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery still appears to be a correction, however, price has cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break of the 50-day average - a key short-term pivot level - has strengthened bullish conditions. Sights are on 4430.50, the Oct 12 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4122.25, the Oct 27 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F4) Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: $100.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $98.99 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $93.20 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $89.49/92.32 - High Oct 24 / 20
• PRICE: $84.21 @ 07:01 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: $84.09/82.20- Low Oct 11 / 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $81.62 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $81.02 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $78.89 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

The broader trend condition in Brent futures remains bullish, however, a corrective cycle remains in play and the contract is trading lower today. A continuation would expose the key support at $82.20, the Oct 6 low. Clearance of this level would be a bearish development. For bulls, a reversal higher and a break of $89.49, the Oct 24 high, would be seen as a bullish development.

WTI TECHS: (Z3) Has Breached Key Support

• RES 4: $98.27 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: $96.03 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $92.48 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $85.90/89.85 - High Oct 27 / 20
• PRICE: $79.95 @ 07:11 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: $78.51 - Low Aug 29
• SUP 2: $77.74 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $75.47 - Low Jul 24
• SUP 4: $74.26 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

The medium-term trend condition in WTI futures remains bullish and the recent move lower still appears to be a correction. However, the contract has breached support at $80.20, the Oct 6 low. The break highlights a stronger short-term reversal. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards $77.03, the Aug 24 low. On the upside, a break of resistance at $85.90, the Oct 27 high, is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 2: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 1: $2009.4 - High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1969.9 @ 07:15 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: $1959.5 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1935.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 4: $1844.3 - Low Oct 9

The trend condition in Gold is unchanged - the uptrend remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Price has recently breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The continuation higher strengthens a bullish theme and opens $2022.20 next, May 15 high. Initial firm pivot support lies at $1935.3, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term top.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Triangle Pattern

• RES 4: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• RES 3: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 1: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $22.740@ 08:03 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: $22.371 - Low Oct 17
• SUP 2: $21.573/20.689 - Low Oct 9 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and the recent consolidation appears to be a triangular formation - a bullish continuation pattern. Price has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher strengthens bullish conditions and has opened $23.774, the Sep 22 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a break of $20.689, Oct 3 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Initial support to watch is $22.371, the Oct 17 low.