MNI DATA ANALYSIS: Australia Q2 Inventories Upside Risk To GDP

--Company Profits Up; Wages and Salaries Accelerate

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Business inventories beat expectations for the second

straight quarter, posing small upside risk to the second quarter GDP forecast.

Company profits also rose more than expected, and wages and salaries

accelerated.

     Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics Monday showed

business inventories rose 0.6% q/q in Q2, beating MNI median forecast for a 0.1%

rise. The rise follows an upward revision in Q1 inventories to +0.8% from +0.7%

and means inventories are unlikely to detract from Q2 GDP as several economists

expected.

     In Q2, retail inventories was flat, an improvement from four straight

quarters of decline. Mining inventories also rebounded partly, up 0.9% q/q from

a 1.7% fall in Q2. Wholesale inventories slowed, rising 1.1% in Q2 after a 3.3%

rise in Q1.

     Company profits rose 2.0%% q/q in Q2 after an upwardly revised 6.5% rise in

Q2 (from +5.9). The outcome was higher than MNI median forecast for a 1.5% q/q

rise.

     Mining profits rose 4.4% q/q in Q2 compared with a 12.2% rise in Q2. Retail

profits rose 1.5% after a 6.0% rise. Construction profits unexpectedly declined

in Q2, down 5.3%, but this followed a strong 11.8% jump in Q1.

     Another important indicator in the data was wages and salaries which rose

1.2% q/q, accelerating from an upwardly revised 0.9% rise in Q1. 

     From Business Indicators data for the second quarter published by the

Australian Bureau of Statistics on Monday:

                                                  Q2                        Q1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                        %Change, Q/Q              %Change, Q/Q

Inventories                                     +0.6  +0.8 (revised from +0.7)

MNI Median                 +0.1 (Range -0.2 to +0.9)

Company Operating Profits                       +2.0  +6.5 (revised from +5.9)

MNI Median                 +1.5 (Range -1.0 to +2.0)

Wages and Salaries                             +1.2%  +0.9 (revised from +0.8)

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

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