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Free AccessMNI DATA ANALYSIS: Japan Output To Rebound From Storm-Hit Oct
TOKYO (MNI) - A series of major typhoons in the Asian region unexpectedly
lowered Japanese factory output in October to a slight gain from the previous
month, but producers polled by the government expect solid growth in the fourth
quarter.
Industrial production rose just 0.5% on month in October, coming in much
weaker than the 2.0% median forecast by economists polled by MNI.
The increase was led by production of electric machinery and transport
equipment but decreases in chemicals as well as petroleum and coal products
limited the overall output gain.
"Chemical producers and refineries had many routine shutdowns for safety
checks," an official at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said.
"Production and shipments were also hit by three typhoons. One in the
Philippines and Vietnam delayed imports of parts and raw materials to Japan
while two more hit Japan, delaying exports to North America."
Stormy weather that hit many parts of Japan two weekends in a row dampened
sentiment and retail sales in October but it is unusual for typhoons to have a
major effect on overall industrial production.
In October, output of electronic parts and devices also slipped but it is
too early to assess the strength of the demand for components to be used in the
iPhone X smartphone released in November, the METI official said.
On the upside, the suspension of production and shipments by Nissan Motor
in the wake of its below-standard vehicle inspection scandal "had little impact
on industrial production" because car output for exports was unaffected, he
said.
The METI forecast for factory output based on its survey is +2.8% on month
in November (revised up from -0.9% projected last month) and +3.5% in December.
Based on these projections, production in the October-December quarter is
estimated to jump 3.6% on quarter after a modest 0.4% gain in July-September and
2.1% rise in April-June.
But adjusting the upward bias in output plans, the METI projected
production would fall 0.1% on month in November but the METI believes the 3.5%
projection should be intact. Based on this assumption, Q4 factory output would
still show a solid 1.6% gain on quarter.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com
--MNI BEIJING Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: john.carter@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MAJDS$,M$A$$$,M$J$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.