MNI DATA ANALYSIS: UK Employment Down; Nominal Wages Up>

-UK Aug-Oct Employment -67,000; employment rate 75.1%

-UK Aug-Oct LFS Unemployment Rate 4.3% vs 4.3% July-Sept

-UK Aug-Oct Total Earnings +2.5% 3m/year-ago; Real Earnings -0.2% 

     By Laurie Laird and David Robinson 

     London (MNI) - U.K. employment fell by the biggest margin in over 

two years, even as nominal wage growth accelerated, although 

inflation-adjusted earnings remained in negative territory. 

     Employment fell by 56,000 to 32.08 million, after a decrease of 

14,000 in the three months to September, the largest decline since the 

three months to May of 2015. 

     That took the employment rate to 75.1%, down 0.2 percentage points 

from the three months ending in July. 

     Joblessness, as measured by the Labour Force Survey, steadied at 

4.3% between August and October, above the median forecas of 4.2%, 

unchanged from 4.3% in the three months to September, matching the 

lowest level of unemployment since the three months to June of 1975. 

     The outturn also matched the 4.3% jobless rate forecast of Bank of 

England staff for the three months to October, as published in the 

November Quarterly Inflation report. 

     The historically-low unemployment rate has begun to translate into 

an acceleration nominal wage growth, although wage growth remained in 

negative territory after accounting for the uptick in consumer 

inflation. 

      Total weekly earnings increased by an annual pace of 2.5% in the 

three months to October, in line with the MNI median forecast, the 

quickest pace since the final quarter of 2016, up from a 2.3% gain in 

the previous three months. 

     But with inflation touching 3.0% in October, real wages, including 

bonuses, actually declined by 0.2% in the latest period, a more shallow 

decline than the 0.4% retreat recorded in the three months to September. 

     In the month of October, total earnings rose by an annual rate of 

2.3%, but real wages declined by 0.4% over the same month of 2016. 

     Excluding bonuses, regular earnings, before adjusting for 

inflation, improved by an annual pace of 2.3% in the three months to 

October, beating the MNI median of a 2.2% gain, up from 2.2% in the 

previous period.  Price-adjusted regular earnings fell by 0.4% over the 

same period a year earlier, after a 0.5% decline in the three months to 

September.

     Regular earnings rose by an annual rate of 2.4% in the month of 

October, but fell by an annual rate of 0.4% in real terms. 

     Unemployment fell by 26,000 between August and October, to 1.43 

million, as inactivity rose by 115,000 to 8.86 million, taking the 

inactivity rate up 0.3 percentage points to 21.5%.

     The jobless rate rose to 4.4% in the month of October, according 

to experimental data, from 4.3% in Spetember. 

     The more up-to-date claimant count rose by 5,900 in November, 

leaving the associated unemployment rate at 2.3%, unchanged from 

September. 

     The claimant count for October was revised to show a 6,500 rise, 

compared to the 1,100 gain reported last month. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]