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Free AccessMNI DATA ANALYSIS: UK Employment Down; Nominal Wages Up>
-UK Aug-Oct Employment -67,000; employment rate 75.1%
-UK Aug-Oct LFS Unemployment Rate 4.3% vs 4.3% July-Sept
-UK Aug-Oct Total Earnings +2.5% 3m/year-ago; Real Earnings -0.2%
By Laurie Laird and David Robinson
London (MNI) - U.K. employment fell by the biggest margin in over
two years, even as nominal wage growth accelerated, although
inflation-adjusted earnings remained in negative territory.
Employment fell by 56,000 to 32.08 million, after a decrease of
14,000 in the three months to September, the largest decline since the
three months to May of 2015.
That took the employment rate to 75.1%, down 0.2 percentage points
from the three months ending in July.
Joblessness, as measured by the Labour Force Survey, steadied at
4.3% between August and October, above the median forecas of 4.2%,
unchanged from 4.3% in the three months to September, matching the
lowest level of unemployment since the three months to June of 1975.
The outturn also matched the 4.3% jobless rate forecast of Bank of
England staff for the three months to October, as published in the
November Quarterly Inflation report.
The historically-low unemployment rate has begun to translate into
an acceleration nominal wage growth, although wage growth remained in
negative territory after accounting for the uptick in consumer
inflation.
Total weekly earnings increased by an annual pace of 2.5% in the
three months to October, in line with the MNI median forecast, the
quickest pace since the final quarter of 2016, up from a 2.3% gain in
the previous three months.
But with inflation touching 3.0% in October, real wages, including
bonuses, actually declined by 0.2% in the latest period, a more shallow
decline than the 0.4% retreat recorded in the three months to September.
In the month of October, total earnings rose by an annual rate of
2.3%, but real wages declined by 0.4% over the same month of 2016.
Excluding bonuses, regular earnings, before adjusting for
inflation, improved by an annual pace of 2.3% in the three months to
October, beating the MNI median of a 2.2% gain, up from 2.2% in the
previous period. Price-adjusted regular earnings fell by 0.4% over the
same period a year earlier, after a 0.5% decline in the three months to
September.
Regular earnings rose by an annual rate of 2.4% in the month of
October, but fell by an annual rate of 0.4% in real terms.
Unemployment fell by 26,000 between August and October, to 1.43
million, as inactivity rose by 115,000 to 8.86 million, taking the
inactivity rate up 0.3 percentage points to 21.5%.
The jobless rate rose to 4.4% in the month of October, according
to experimental data, from 4.3% in Spetember.
The more up-to-date claimant count rose by 5,900 in November,
leaving the associated unemployment rate at 2.3%, unchanged from
September.
The claimant count for October was revised to show a 6,500 rise,
compared to the 1,100 gain reported last month.
-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.