MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Rise 10,000 In Dec 29 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average Down 500 To 218,750 

By Harrison Clarke and Shikha Dave

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

rose by 10,000 to 231,000 in the December 29 week, above expectations 

for a 220,000 level, data released by the Labor Department Thursday 

showed. 

     The level of claims was revised upwards to 221,000 in the December 

22 week from the previously reported 216,000 level. Overall, the data 

suggest seasonal adjustment difficulties. 

--CLAIMS TRENDING DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY

     A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the 

four-week moving average for initial claims. The average fell by 500 

to 218,750 in the December 29 week.

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average would rise by 6,250 as the 206,000 level in the December 8 week 

rolls out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 6.4%, or 

18,779 in unadjusted claims. However, claims actually posted an increase 

of 11.1%, or 32,255, to 323,880. The current week's level was below the 

351,348 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS RISE

     The level of continuing claims rose by 32,000 to 1.740 million in 

the December 22 week. Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims rose 

by 23,711 to 1.789 million, remaining well below the 2.066 million level 

seen in the comparable week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a  

more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate 

week-to-week, rose by 26,000 to 1.704 million. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 

1.2% in the December 22 week, down from 1.3% in the same week a year 

earlier, reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is extremely 

low. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]