MNI DATA BRIEF: Canada June CPI Seen 3.2% After Basket Update

Canada's inflation rate probably slowed to 3.2% in June from 3.6% in May as last year's base effect waned, in the first report incorporating new weights that reflect pandemic spending trends. The CPI probably climbed 0.5% on a monthly basis in June to match May's pace, economists predict Statistics Canada will report Wednesday at 830am EST.

Headline year-over-year inflation was the fastest in a decade in May and the June result would be the third month in a row where prices ran faster than the top of the central bank's 1%-3% target band. The Bank of Canada expects CPI to average 3.4% in Q2, 3.9% in Q3 and 3.5% in Q4.

The BOC earlier in July tapered its bond buying program for a third time to just CAD2 billion a month and said inflation will slow to around 2% for a time next year on slack in the economy and the passing of transitory pressures, adding that conditions to raise interest rates should be in place in H2 2022.