MNI DATA IMPACT: Canada Sept. Trade Gap Bigger Than Forecast>

By Greg Quinn and Anahita Alinejad

     Ottawa (MNI) - Canada's September trade deficit was wider than 

forecast with imports and exports falling, and the August shortfall was 

revised to show even more weakness.

     The September shortfall of C$978 million was larger than 

the MNI economist median of C$750 million. Ottawa-based Statistics 

Canada also raised the August deficit to C$1.24 billion from C$955 

million.

     Exports fell 1.3% in September, the third decline in four 

months. Shipments of metals fell 7.3% led by gold. Energy exports fell 

2.6% with crude oil production disrupted by shutdowns at a Newfoundland 

offshore platform, bringing the decline in the last 12 months to 7.4%.

     Imports declined 1.7%, suggesting Canada's overall trade is being 

hurt by global trade tensions that led the central bnak to consider 

cutting interest rates last week. Governor Stephen Poloz said exports 

will fall in the second half of this year, slowing an economy that still 

remains close to full capacity on resilient domestic spending. 

     Exports fell 2.3% in the third quarter following a 4.8% gain in the 

second. Imports declined 0.6% in the third quarter, about the same pace 

as the prior three months.

     Canada remains on track for a record deficit this year with 

non-U.S. countries. The shortfall from January to September of C$52.6 

billion beats last year's previous record of C$48.3 billion. That 

shortfall is being eased by a C$39.3 billion surplus with the U.S. so 

far this year.

     Another sign of the broad weakness in global trade was that 

shipments declined in seven of 11 major categories for both imports and 

exports on the month.       

--MNI Ottawa Bureau; +1-613-314-9647; greg.quinn@marketnews.com

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