MNI DATA IMPACT:US July Jobs As-Expected +164k;Earnings +0.3%>

--June Payrolls Rev Down To +193k, May Jobs Rev Down to +62k

By Kevin Kastner, Brooke Migdon, and Alexandra Kelley

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Payrolls growth was as-expected in July, 

rising by 164,000 and following a net downward revision to the previous 

two months. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7% 

     Hourly earnings growth was stronger than expected, rising by 0.3% 

after a upward revised 0.3% gain in the previous month. The year/year 

rate rose to 3.2% in July from 3.1% in June. 

     Here are some of the key takeaways from the data released Friday: 

     - July payrolls data were virtually as expected, posting a 

164,000 gain compared with the 165,000 Bloomberg consensus and the 

163,000 MNI survey median. This followed downward revisions to June 

(+193k vs prev +224k) and May (+62k vs prev +72k) for a net downward 

revision of 41,000. 

     - Hourly earnings rose 0.3% after an upward revised 0.3% increase 

in June. The Bloomberg consensus and MNI surveys both looked for 0.2% 

gain. As a result, the year/year rate for earnings rose to 3.2%. Average 

hours worked dipped slightly to 34.3 hours in July after holding at 34.4 

hours in each of the last three months. 

     - The unemployment rate remained at 3.7% compared with the 

3.6% rate expected by Bloomberg and the 3.7% rate MNI expected, as the 

labor force participation rate ticked upward by 0.1 to 63.0%. The size 

of the labor force grew to 370,000 with the number of employed and the 

number of unemployed both increasing. Before rounding, the unemployment 

rate rose to 3.712% from 3.666% in June.

     - Private payrolls rose by 148,000 in July, compared with a 165,000 

increase expected by Bloomberg and a 153,000 gain expected by an MNI 

survey. There were solid gains in education and health services, 

financial activities, wholesale trade, and manufacturing. The retail 

sector posted its 6th straight decline, as foreshadowed by an MNI 

preview published on Thursday. 

     - Also released on Friday, the international trade gap narrowed to 

-$55.2 billion in June from -$55.3 billion in May, with the petroleum 

gap significantly smaller. Analysts had expected the gap to narrow to 

-$54.6 billion. The bilateral gap with China decreased slightly to 

-$30.0 billion after -$30.2 billion in May. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]