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Free AccessMNI DATA PREVIEW: Australia Unemployment Rate Seen Unch At 5%
By Lachlan Colquhoun
SYDNEY (MNI) - Australian Labour Force Data for February is set to be
released Thursday. Here are five points of interest to look for in the
Australian Bureau of Statistics release.
Low employment growth, but jobless rate seen unchanged.
The market expects that although fewer jobs were created in February the
unemployment rate will hold steady at 5.0%. The median forecast is that 15,000
jobs were created in February, less than half of the 39,100 created in January.
There are several dissenting views, notably from Westpac, forecasting
unemployment at 5.1%.
Labour Force crucial for RBA.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has consistently pointed to the strong labour
market as a sign of a healthy economy, even though the Bank revised its
employment forecasts lower in the last Statement on Monetary Policy. The RBA
forecast is for unemployment to remain at 5.0% for all of 2019, before falling
to 4.9% next year. Low unemployment is key to the RBA's more positive outlook,
in which a strong labour market flows through to wages and consumption growth.
Full time or Part time.
Reversing the trend of recent months, last month's increase was driven by a rise
in full time employment with 65,400 new jobs created, while the number of part
time jobs fell 26,300. The number of people employed in Australia has grown 2.2%
in the last 12 months, and the RBA is forecasting 2.3% this year.
Full employment for NSW.
Although New South Wales is the state with the biggest downside risk from
falling property prices, it is also experiencing the lowest levels of
unemployment, with the rate falling from 4.3% to 3.9% month on month to January.
The compares with Tasmania, where house prices are at record highs, but
unemployment added 1.0% to 7.0% in one month. Tomorrow's NSW data will be a test
of what level equates to full employment.
Federal election a "referendum on wages".
A Federal election is set for the first half of this year, with both the
incumbent Liberal National Coalition and the Opposition Labor Party strongly
focussed on the labour market. For the Government, continued strength in the
labour market is a sign of their economic management, while Labor says that
despite low unemployment, wages growth is too sluggish and has promised to
address this. Although not taking sides, the RBA has also said that Australian
workers need to be rewarded with higher wages for the overall health of the
economy.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MALDS$,MAUDR$,MAUDS$,MAUPR$,M$A$$$,M$L$$$,M$U$$$,MI$$$$]
To read the full story
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Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.