MNI DATA PREVIEW: January Canadian GDP Seen Flat

By Yali N'Diaye

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Monthly GDP by industry is expected to hold steady in

January following two months of contractions in November and December. 

     A flat reading would add downside risk to the Bank of Canada's estimate of

a 0.8% annualized GDP growth in the first quarter, after a 0.4% growth in the

fourth quarter - not even half of the BOC's 1.3% estimate.

     --ENERGY A DRAG

     Mandated oil production cuts in Alberta in effect since January should

weigh on the goods-producing sector. In December, the energy sector was down

2.0% and GDP excluding energy edged up 0.1% after decreasing 0.1% in November.

     --MANUFACTURING SOME OFFSET

     Within goods-producing industries, manufacturing should bring support as

real factory sales rose 1.4% in January.

     --SERVICES LIFTED BY WHOLESALE

     Services should get a boost from the 0.7% gain in real wholesale sales over

the month.

     --MIXED BAG FOR HOUSING

     On the housing front, existing home sales rebounded 3.6% in January, which

should support real estate brokers' activity (-1.9% in December). However,

construction, which fell 0.9% in December, could post its eighth consecutive

decrease as housing starts fell nearly 3% in January after dropping more than 5%

in December.

--MNI Ottawa Bureau; +1 613 869-0916; email: yali.ndiaye@marketnews.com

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