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MNI DATA PREVIEW: June ISM Mfg Seen Falling,Regional Data Soft

By Kevin Kastner
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall to a
reading of 51.3 in June, a third straight decline, when it is released on
Monday. The flash Markit estimate declined to 50.1 from a reading of 50.5 in the
previous month, so expectations for the ISM reading are in line with that
report. 
     Some key points to consider:
     - The regional data all pointed downward in the month, a strong downside
risk for the ISM measure and manufacturing in general.
     - Analysts have underestimated the headline ISM index in May in each of the
last four years. As a result, analysts concerned about the regional data may aim
too low in their forecasts for the ISM reading, especially after overestimating
the index in the last two months. 
     - The ISM manufacturing employment index partially rebounded in the May
report after an April dip. Regional data suggest 
     - Based on a number of regional data, the ISM price measure could move
either way after an increase in June. The MNI Chicago, Dallas, and Empire price
accelerated, but Kansas City, Richmond, and Philadelphia reported slower pace
gains.
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MAUPR$,M$U$$$]

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