MNI DATA PREVIEW: UK Public Finances Data

By Jamie Satchi

     LONDON (MNI) - Week commencing January 22 will be the busiest data-wise

since the turn of the year. We will get updates on the status of public sector

borrowing (Tuesday), the labour market (Wednesday) and economic growth (Friday)

with other soft data surveys dispersed throughout the week.

     Up first, public sector finances data from the ninth month of the fiscal

year. Our preliminary survey of analysts generates a median stg5.0bn public

sector net borrowing excluding-banks balance for December, in line with the

outturn delivered the in same month in 2016. Borrowing came in at stg8.7bn in

November, stg0.2bn down on the figure recorded a year prior.

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                                 Dec

                    Public Finances-

                             PSNB ex

                              stg bn

Date Out                      23-Jan

Median                           5.0

Forecast High                    5.7

Forecast Low                     4.6

Standard Deviation               0.4

Count                              5

Prior                            8.7

Credit Suisse                    5.0

HSBC                             4.7

Investec                         4.6

RBC                              5.7

Standard Chartered               5.0

     Wednesday sees the release of the ONS' latest labour market health-check.

Key takeaways from this will be whether the pace at which the economy added jobs

slowed or quickened and underlying wage growth. On the latter, analysts on

balance saw November's nominal wage growth in level with October's result -

growth of +2.5% 3m y/y in total wages and +2.3% 3m y/y in wages ex-bonuses

wages. Analysts were unanimous in forecasting the unemployment rate unchanged at

4.3%.

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                                                       Nov

                      Nov                Nov           ILO

               Avg Weekly         Avg Weekly  Unemployment

                 Earnings  Earnings ex-Bonus          rate

                 3m % YoY           3m % YoY          3m %

Date Out           24-Jan             24-Jan        24-Jan

Median                2.5                2.3           4.3

Forecast High         2.5                2.3           4.3

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABPR$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]