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MNI DATA SURVEY: UK 3rd GDP Est, IoS, Curr Acc, Gfk & BOE Cred

MNI (London)
By Jai Lakhani
     LONDON (MNI) - As expected, MNI median estimates show that the final
estimate of UK Q1 GDP is highly unlikely to be changed from its prior two
estimates of 0.1% q/q and 1.2% y/y. Only one out of ten estimates picks an
upward revision to 0.2% q/q. 
                          Final GDP        Final GDP
----------------------------------------------------
                           Estimate         Estimate
                               rate             rate
                    % Q/Q (2nd Est)  % Y/Y (2nd Est)
Date Out                  29th June           29-Jun
MNI Median                      0.1              1.2
Forecast High                   0.2              1.3
Forecast Low                    0.1              1.2
Standard Deviation              0.0              0.0
Count                            10                7
Prior                     0.4 (0.1)        1.4 (1.2)
Barclays                        0.1              1.2
Capital Economics               0.1              1.2
Commerzbank                     0.1              N/A
Investec                        0.2              1.3
JP Morgan                       0.1              1.2
Lloyds TSB                      0.2              1.3
Nomura                          0.1              N/A
Oxford Economics                0.1              1.2
Pantheon                        0.1              N/A
Societe Generale                0.1              1.2
     The UK Index of Services is expected to recover from a prior m/m growth of
0.1% to a median estimate of 0.3%. 
                          UK
----------------------------
                    Index of
                    Services
                       % M/M
Date Out              29-Jun
MNI Median               0.3
Forecast High            0.4
Forecast Low             0.3
Standard Deviation       0.1
Count                      6
Prior                    0.1
Capital Economics        0.3
JP Morgan                0.3
Lloyds TSB               0.4
Oxford Economics         0.3
Pantheon                 0.3
Scotia                   0.4
     MNI median estimates also suggest an improvement in the UK current account
balance in quarter 1. After a prior deficit of stg18.4 bn, a reduction of stg0.7
bn is expected, lowering the deficit to stg17.7 bn. 
                    Current
---------------------------
                    Account
                     stg bn
Date Out             29-Jun
MNI Median            -17.7
Forecast High         -16.0
Forecast Low          -19.0
Standard Deviation      1.0
Count                     6
Prior                 -18.4
Capital Economics     -17.6
Investec              -17.7
Lloyds TSB            -19.0
Nomura                -17.0
Pantheon              -17.8
Societe Generale      -16.0
     A mixed bag appears to be the case for the June UK Gfk consumer sentiment
with some analysts anticipating an improvement in the -7 figure whilst others
expect a deterioration. The result is a median estimate that is unchanged from
the prior -7 reported in May. 
                           UK
-----------------------------
                          GfK
                     Consumer
                    Sentiment
Date Out               29-Jun
MNI Median               -7.0
Forecast High            -5.0
Forecast Low             -9.0
Standard Deviation        1.5
Count                       7
Prior                    -7.0
Barclays                 -7.0
Capital Economics        -5.0
Investec                 -5.0
JP Morgan                -7.0
Lloyds TSB               -6.0
Oxford Economics         -8.0
Societe Generale         -9.0
     The money and credit data from BOE is fairly downbeat with a prior recovery
in consumer credit and weak growth in mortgage approvals, expected to move back
slightly in the wrong direction. Mortgage approvals are expected to fall to
62,400 after a prior of 62,500, whilst net consumer credit is expected to fall
from stg1.8bn to stg1.5bn. 
                          BOE           BOE
-------------------------------------------
                     Mortgage  Net Consumer
                    Approvals        Credit
                        '000s        stg bn
Date Out               29-Jun        29-Jun
MNI Median               62.4           1.5
Forecast High            63.0           1.7
Forecast Low             62.0           1.4
Standard Deviation        0.5           0.1
Count                       6             7
Prior                    62.5           1.8
Capital Economics        62.2           1.5
Investec                 63.0           1.7
Lloyds TSB               63.0           1.4
Nomura                   62.5           1.4
Oxford Economics         62.0           1.7
Pantheon                 62.0           1.4
Societe Generale          N/A           1.5
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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