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Market News Topics
June 27, 2018 11:39 GMT
MNI DATA SURVEY: UK 3rd GDP Est, IoS, Curr Acc, Gfk & BOE Cred
MNI (London)
By Jai Lakhani
LONDON (MNI) - As expected, MNI median estimates show that the final
estimate of UK Q1 GDP is highly unlikely to be changed from its prior two
estimates of 0.1% q/q and 1.2% y/y. Only one out of ten estimates picks an
upward revision to 0.2% q/q.
Final GDP Final GDP
----------------------------------------------------
Estimate Estimate
rate rate
% Q/Q (2nd Est) % Y/Y (2nd Est)
Date Out 29th June 29-Jun
MNI Median 0.1 1.2
Forecast High 0.2 1.3
Forecast Low 0.1 1.2
Standard Deviation 0.0 0.0
Count 10 7
Prior 0.4 (0.1) 1.4 (1.2)
Barclays 0.1 1.2
Capital Economics 0.1 1.2
Commerzbank 0.1 N/A
Investec 0.2 1.3
JP Morgan 0.1 1.2
Lloyds TSB 0.2 1.3
Nomura 0.1 N/A
Oxford Economics 0.1 1.2
Pantheon 0.1 N/A
Societe Generale 0.1 1.2
The UK Index of Services is expected to recover from a prior m/m growth of
0.1% to a median estimate of 0.3%.
UK
----------------------------
Index of
Services
% M/M
Date Out 29-Jun
MNI Median 0.3
Forecast High 0.4
Forecast Low 0.3
Standard Deviation 0.1
Count 6
Prior 0.1
Capital Economics 0.3
JP Morgan 0.3
Lloyds TSB 0.4
Oxford Economics 0.3
Pantheon 0.3
Scotia 0.4
MNI median estimates also suggest an improvement in the UK current account
balance in quarter 1. After a prior deficit of stg18.4 bn, a reduction of stg0.7
bn is expected, lowering the deficit to stg17.7 bn.
Current
---------------------------
Account
stg bn
Date Out 29-Jun
MNI Median -17.7
Forecast High -16.0
Forecast Low -19.0
Standard Deviation 1.0
Count 6
Prior -18.4
Capital Economics -17.6
Investec -17.7
Lloyds TSB -19.0
Nomura -17.0
Pantheon -17.8
Societe Generale -16.0
A mixed bag appears to be the case for the June UK Gfk consumer sentiment
with some analysts anticipating an improvement in the -7 figure whilst others
expect a deterioration. The result is a median estimate that is unchanged from
the prior -7 reported in May.
UK
-----------------------------
GfK
Consumer
Sentiment
Date Out 29-Jun
MNI Median -7.0
Forecast High -5.0
Forecast Low -9.0
Standard Deviation 1.5
Count 7
Prior -7.0
Barclays -7.0
Capital Economics -5.0
Investec -5.0
JP Morgan -7.0
Lloyds TSB -6.0
Oxford Economics -8.0
Societe Generale -9.0
The money and credit data from BOE is fairly downbeat with a prior recovery
in consumer credit and weak growth in mortgage approvals, expected to move back
slightly in the wrong direction. Mortgage approvals are expected to fall to
62,400 after a prior of 62,500, whilst net consumer credit is expected to fall
from stg1.8bn to stg1.5bn.
BOE BOE
-------------------------------------------
Mortgage Net Consumer
Approvals Credit
'000s stg bn
Date Out 29-Jun 29-Jun
MNI Median 62.4 1.5
Forecast High 63.0 1.7
Forecast Low 62.0 1.4
Standard Deviation 0.5 0.1
Count 6 7
Prior 62.5 1.8
Capital Economics 62.2 1.5
Investec 63.0 1.7
Lloyds TSB 63.0 1.4
Nomura 62.5 1.4
Oxford Economics 62.0 1.7
Pantheon 62.0 1.4
Societe Generale N/A 1.5
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
To read the full story
Close
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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