MNI Data Survey: UK Money and Credit, April PMI Surveys

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - After weak UK March PMIs, attributed to severe weather

disturbances, analysts expect a rebound this month. The MNI median estimates

suggest construction PMI for April is likely to show small signs of expansion at

50.5, up from a previous reading of 47.0. Services PMI is expected to increase

its strength after a disappointing 51.7 is anticipated to be followed up with

53.8 for the month of April. 

                    Construction  Services

------------------------------------------

                             PMI       PMI

                           Index     Index

Date Out                  02-May    03-May

Median                      50.5      53.8

Forecast High               52.0      54.7

Forecast Low                48.5      52.6

Standard Deviation           1.2       0.5

Count                          5        12

Prior                       47.0      51.7

Barclays                     N/A      53.0

Capital Economics           50.5      54.0

Credit Suisse                N/A      54.0

Commerzbank                  N/A      53.8

Investec                     N/A      54.7

JP Morgan                   50.5      53.7

Lloyds TSB                   N/A      54.0

Morgan Stanley               N/A      54.1

Natixis                     48.5      52.6

Nomura                       N/A      53.5

Oxford Economics            50.5      53.8

Pantheon                    52.0      53.5

     Whilst construction and services PMI are expected to rebound, the

manufacturing PMI is expected to go in the opposite direction, unlikely to get a

weather related rebound, and solidifying the more medium term growth the sector

has been experiencing. Analysts have pencilled in a slight reduction in

manufacturing PMI to 54.8 from a March prior of 55.1. 

                    Manufacturing

---------------------------------

                              PMI

                            Index

Date Out                   01-May

Median                       54.8

Forecast High                55.3

Forecast Low                 53.3

Standard Deviation            0.5

Count                          12

Prior                        55.1

Barclays                     55.0

Capital Economics            54.8

Credit Suisse                53.3

Commerzbank                  54.5

Investec                     54.9

JP Morgan                    54.0

Lloyds TSB                   54.7

Morgan Stanley               54.7

Natixis                      55.0

Nomura                       55.0

Oxford Economics             55.3

Pantheon                     54.5

     Moving to money and credit, net mortgage lending is expected to remain

fairly robust but falling slightly from stg3.7 billion to stg3.6 billion. Net

credit and mortgage approvals however are both expected by analysts to see a

drop with net credit expected to fall from stg1.6 billion to stg1.4 billion and

mortgage approvals to fall from 63,910 to 63,000. 

                             BOE        BOE           BOE

---------------------------------------------------------

                    Net mortgage   Mortgage  Net Consumer

                         Lending  Approvals        Credit

                           stgbn      '000s        stg bn

Date Out                  01-May     01-May        01-May

Median                       3.6       63.0           1.4

Forecast High                3.7       64.0           1.6

Forecast Low                 3.5       61.8           1.2

Standard Deviation           0.1        0.6           0.2

Count                          4         11             7

Prior                        3.7       63.9           1.6

Barclays                     3.6       63.2           1.4

Capital Economics            N/A       63.0           1.5

Credit Suisse                N/A       63.0           N/A

Commerzbank                  N/A        N/A           N/A

Investec                     3.6       63.4           1.4

JP Morgan                    N/A       63.5           N/A

Lloyds TSB                   N/A       62.5           1.2

Morgan Stanley               N/A       63.1           N/A

Natixis                      N/A       61.8           N/A

Nomura                       3.5       63.0           1.5

Oxford Economics             3.7       64.0           1.6

Pantheon                     N/A       63.0           1.2

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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