MNI Data Survey: UK PMI Data and BOE Interest Rate Decision

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - After a June which saw a pick-up in the UK services and

construction PMI and a still robust manufacturing number, MNI median estimates

suggest a slight cooling in activity for the month of July. 

                                   Jul                    Jul                Jul

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                    UK                     UK                 UK

                       Markit CIPS PMI        Markit CIPS PMI    Markit CIPS PMI

                         Manufacturing           Construction           Services

Date Out                       1st-Aug                2nd-Aug            3rd-Aug

MNI Median                        54.2                   52.8               54.6

Forecast High                     54.7                   53.0               55.3

Forecast Low                      54.0                   52.5               54.5

Standard

Deviation                          0.2                    0.2                0.3

Count                               10                      5                  9

Prior                             54.4                   53.1               55.1

Barclays                          54.5                    N/A                N/A

Capital

Economics                         54.2                   53.0               55.0

Investec                          54.7                    N/A               54.6

JP Morgan                         54.0                    N/A               54.5

Lloyds TSB                        54.1                   52.8               54.6

Nomura                            54.0                    N/A               54.5

Oxford

Economics                         54.0                   52.8               55.3

Pantheon                          54.0                   52.5               55.0

RBC                               54.3                    N/A               54.7

Societe

Generale                          54.2                   52.8               54.5

     The most important release of the week in the UK is the Bank of England

monetary policy decision on Thursday, published alongside the August Inflation

Report. Every analyst polled believes the MPC members will vote for a 25bps hike

to 0.75% on Thursday. The median of votes suggest the vote will have one member

voting to keep the Bank Rate unchanged and the other eight members voting for a

25bps hike. Gilt purchases are also expected to remain unchanged from its

current stg435 bn, with all analysts polled in agreement on this. 

     New to this release is the announcement of r*. The median for the mid-point

of the r* ranges expected by analysts points to a mid-point of 0.0% for r*,

implying an equilibrium nominal Bank Rate of 2.0%. 

                      Aug          Aug          Aug          Aug             Aug

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                      BOE          BOE          BOE          BOE             BOE

               MPC Policy   MPC Policy   MPC Policy   MPC Policy    Mid-point of

                 Decision     Decision     Decision     Decision     R* Decision

                Bank Rate   Gilt Purch

                        %      Stg bln   Unch. Vote    Hike Vote

Date Out          2nd-Aug      2nd-Aug      2nd-Aug      2nd-Aug         2nd-Aug

MNI Median           0.75        435.0          1.0          8.0             0.0

Forecast High         0.8        435.0          3.0          9.0             0.6

Forecast Low          0.8        435.0          0.0          6.0            -0.3

Standard

Deviation             0.0          0.0          0.9          0.9             0.3

Count                  22            9           13           13               5

Prior                 0.5        435.0          6.0          3.0

Barclays              0.8          N/A          1.0          8.0             N/A

Berenberg             0.8        435.0          N/A          N/A             N/A

BNP Paribas           0.8          N/A          3.0          6.0             0.0

Capital

Economics             0.8        435.0          3.0          6.0             N/A

Credit Suisse         0.8          N/A          1.0          8.0             N/A

Commerzbank           0.8          N/A          1.0          8.0             N/A

Dankse

Capital

Markets               0.8          N/A          N/A          N/A             N/A

ING                   0.8          N/A          N/A          N/A             N/A

Investec              0.8        435.0          1.0          8.0             N/A

Jeffries              0.8          N/A          N/A          N/A             N/A

JP Morgan             0.8          N/A          2.0          7.0            -0.3

LBBW                  0.8        435.0          N/A          N/A             N/A

Lloyds TSB            0.8        435.0          2.0          7.0             0.3

Morgan

Stanley               0.8          N/A          1.0          8.0             0.6

Nomura                0.8        435.0          N/A          N/A             N/A

Nordea                0.8        435.0          N/A          N/A             N/A

Oxford

Economics             0.8        435.0          2.0          7.0             N/A

Pantheon              0.8          N/A          2.0          7.0             0.0

RBC                   0.8          N/A          0.0          9.0             N/A

Societe

Generale              0.8        435.0          N/A          N/A             N/A

TD Securities         0.8          N/A          1.0          8.0             N/A

UniCredit             0.8          N/A          N/A          N/A             N/A

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABPR$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]