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MNI ECB Review - July 2021: Dovish Adjustment To Forward Guidance

MNI ECB Review - July 2021: Dovish Adjustment To Forward Guidance

As we noted in our ECB Preview, the July ECB meeting went from a placeholder before the more pivotal September meeting, to being very much a live event. While no new major policy changes were expected, markets had been anticipating significant new signals. In the end, the meeting marked a slight dovish shift with markets left underwhelmed.

The forward guidance was adjusted to reflect the new formulation of the inflation target, which had been expected given that the ECB had published the results of its strategy view – and the formal adoption of a symmetrical inflation target - earlier in the month.

Going forward, September will remain an important live meeting. As we stressed before, at this point the ECB will have greater visibility on the economic recovery, the impact (if any) of the Delta variant on economic activity, fresh staff macroeconomic projections and evidence of whether EU/EZ states have met the ECs 70% inoculation target. By September the PEPP will have a little over six months left to run on the existing timetable and so a decision on whether to extend or conclude will become more pressing.

For the full publication, please see:

ECB Review July 2021.pdf

Central Bank ReviewECB - ReviewCentral Bank ReportsMarkets
Central Bank ReviewECB - ReviewCentral Bank ReportsMarkets

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